Team USA, Spain Set to Duel in Quarterfinal
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As any good poker player will tell you, it’s all in the luck of the draw. In the Olympic men’s basketball tournament, it’s hard to know who got the worst of the draw – the U.S. or Spain.
After five uninspiring games in the first round of the tournament, the U.S. drew the unbeaten Spanish squad – clearly the class of the tournament thus far – as their quarterfinal opponent. For Spain, that hardly seems like a reward for their stellar first round: With pretenders like China, Italy, and Greece sprinkled in the quarterfinal pool, they somehow drew the most talented team as their opponent.
Despite the fact that the winner will be favored to take the gold medal, one of these teams will end up playing in the seventh-place game. Nor will it get any easier for the survivor. While Group B champ Lithuania has a cakewalk into the final, the winner of the U.S.-Spain matchup still must get by Argentina or win what is essentially a road game against Greece to make the final.
The good news for the Americans is that they match up as well against the Spaniards as any team in the tournament. Spain isn’t your typical European squad. Instead of the soft defense and 3-point-crazy offense that most European teams prefer, the Spanish squad is big, physical, and likes to score in the paint. Those tendencies play right into the hand of the Americans, whose problems so far have been perimeter defense, not stopping shots in the paint.
American fans will be familiar with Spain’s best player, Pau Gasol of the Memphis Grizzlies. The multitalented forward is the focal point of the Spaniards’ attack. However, the toughness comes from the other frontcourt players, in particular forward Jorge Garbajosa.
A veteran in the Italian League, Garbajosa is the one who will give Tim Duncan subtle nudges in the back and throw well-timed elbows under the glass. He’s also a surprisingly effective interior scorer. And Duncan will contend with a familiar face in the paint: former ACC rival Iker Iturbe, who played at Clemson.
The two teams also share a major weakness: shooting. While Spain’s masonry isn’t quite as appalling as the Americans’, guards Juan Carlos Navarro (a second-round pick of the Wizards in 2002) and Jose Manuel Calderon have struggled on 3-pointers.
The difference between Spain and the U.S. is defense. Spain has shut teams down the entire tournament, giving up a paltry 69.8 points per game while breezing to a 5-0 record.
Solving that defense will be a challenge for Larry Brown’s shooting-starved charges, but they are steadily improving. The Americans have averaged 89.3 points over the last three games, more than Spain has allowed in any game this Olympics. If the Americans can score that many points today, they’ll be assured of a win; the Spaniards don’t have the offensive punch to make up for an off-night on the defensive end.
Spain’s ability to play such good defense is a testament to the importance of teamwork. The Spaniards are unusually familiar with one another because they almost all have ties to two Spanish League teams – FC Barcelona and Adecco Estudianates.
Gasol played at Barcelona before coming to Memphis, Navarro still plays there, and so do two key subs – Roberto Duenas and Rodrigo de la Fuente. Meanwhile, Iturbe and subs Felipe Reyes and Carlos Jiminez all play at Adecco. Considering that, it’s not surprising that Spain’s defense has been so cohesive.
The U.S. team has made enough strides over the past week that they have a good shot at winning this game, despite Spain’s teamwork and tough defense. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say the U.S. will slip past the Spanish squad in a defensive battle, 76-71.
Even if they lose, the U.S. will only be the second-most disappointing team in this tournament. Two-time defending world champion Serbia-Montenegro bowed out after an embarrassing loss to China on Monday, finishing last in their group and only averting last place by winning a consolation over hapless Angola.
The Serb example is instructive because their problems were similar to those of the Americans – star players pulling out, a coach who seemed slow to adjust to international rules, and a slew of young players instead of the usual vets. As more international players come to the NBA, more foreign teams are going to be dealing with those issues in the Olympics. So even as they disappoint in this tournament, the U.S. squad has unwittingly become a trendsetter.
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Here’s a look at today’s other quarterfinal matchups:
ARGENTINA-GREECE The winner of the Spain-U.S. showdown will face either Argentina or Greece in the semis. The Argentines, who made the finals of the world championships with the same cast, have disappointed thus far; like the Americans, they have been hurt by shaky point guard play. On paper, Argentina should destroy Greece, but the Greeks have benefited greatly from home court advantage and former Memphis Grizzly Antonis Fotsis has put together a strong tournament.
ITALY-PUERTO RICO If the karma gods are watching, Italy will smash Puerto Rico. The reason the U.S. drew a matchup against Spain was because Puerto Rico tanked its final first-round game, getting blown out by Greece. The loss enabled Puerto Rico to avoid Argentina and instead play a less talented Italian team.
However, Italy has proved to be a tough opponent thanks to their European-based pros, crushing the U.S. in an Olympic tune-up, giving Spain a tough test, and squeezing past Argentina. Italy doesn’t have anybody as good as Puerto Rico’s Carlos Arroyo, but they’re deeper and should wear down Puerto Rico in the second half.
LITHUANIA-CHINA This should be a one-sided affair, as Lithuania takes on an overmatched Chinese team that reacted to reaching the second round as if they had won the gold medal. Lithuania’s deadly 3-point shooting should make Yao Ming’s domination in the middle a non-issue, allowing them instead to pick on China’s high-school quality guards.