The evolution of basketball statistics has reached a level where the performance of most young players can be projected. For instance, if you’re examining the short-term future of a 22-year-old, 6-foot-11-inch, 265-pound power forward who arrived in the league straight out of high school, there are several players of that age and build whose performance can give a fairly solid idea on how your subject will do.

But when it comes to young point guards, we’re in uncharted waters. Only two, Brooklyn native Sebastian Telfair and Shaun Livingston, have made the jump from high school to the NBA – and both leapt this year. While most New York basketball fans would like to see Telfair join a distinguished list of local point guards who have succeeded in the NBA (including Telfair’s cousin, Stephon Marbury), his early experiences suggest that it will be a few years before a true picture of his career arc becomes clear.

Telfair has had a wild ride so far. This time last year, Telfair was considered a likely top-five draft pick. He spurned the University of Louisville, and signed up for the draft. Then his stock dipped. The issue wasn’t his speed, court vision, or agility, all of which made scouts salivate over his future potential, but Telfair’s jump shot was less accurate than most stadium construction estimates.

Some scouts began to say that Telfair was a project; he would need to spend two or three years honing his game before he could be an asset in the NBA. Telfair’s credentials – he led Lincoln to three straight New York City high school championships and broke Kenny Anderson’s statewide prep scoring record – were enough to win him a lucrative endorsement deal from Adidas, but his poor shooting at the June workouts sent his draft stock into free fall.

Fast-forward 10 months, and Telfair is now entering his second month as the starting point guard for the Portland Trail Blazers, who eventually took him with the 13th pick. Telfair is now listed among the top 10 candidates for Rookie of the Year.

The Blazers’ rookie has enjoyed a productive season thus far, yet doubts linger. Point guard is easily the hardest position on the floor; it requires vision, imagination, agility, leadership, and shooting touch. Asking that out of most 19-year-olds is a fool’s errand.

The Trail Blazers made Telfair their starting point guard on March 4. His predecessors, Damon Stoudamire and Nick Van Exel, are solid veterans who started their careers as point guards but are now better suited for the two guard position. Both men are in the final year of their contracts, and neither is expected to return to Portland. With the Blazers well off the playoff radar in the West, Telfair got his audition as the starter.

During the month of March, he averaged 9.8 points and 5.3 assists in just over 32 minutes per game. So far in April, his numbers look even better; he put up 18 points and eight assists against Seattle on Friday and notched his first professional double-double with 16 points and 10 assists against Denver the following night. These numbers are cause for optimism, but it should be tempered.

Consider that neither Seattle nor Denver is a respectable defensive team. Look back to the Blazers’ final game in March, a battle with the defensive-minded Rockets, and Telfair’s numbers aren’t so hot: three points on 1-of-7 shooting. Telfair’s jumper still isn’t ready for prime time.

In March, he drained just 40% of his shots, and posted an 0-fer on 12 3-point attempts. In March, Telfair averaged 5.3 assists and three turnovers a game; by way of comparison, Van Exel averaged 4.3 assists and 1.7 turnovers per game and Stoudamire put up 5.5 and 1.9. Telfair’s double-double came on 5-of-15 shooting from the field, which was in line with the 33% of previous months.

Nonetheless, Portland has played at a faster, more energetic tempo under Telfair’s direction. He’s extremely quick, has great court vision, and isn’t afraid to try the daring pass. His teammates move with the confidence that if they get open near the basket, a pass will be forthcoming. But Telfair will never be able to get the Blazers to space the floor properly if opponents don’t have to respect his outside shot.

It’s also worth noting that Portland has surrounded Telfair with a mess. It’s a team of talented but mismatched parts. Some of the most promising players, like Zach Randolph and Darius Miles, are reputed to present off-court problems. Others, like power forward Shareef Abdur-Rahim, are counting down the days until they can leave Portland. While this situation usually creates malaise, it is also a fine situation for Telfair to hone his game; there is no pressure on the kid to win now.

If the Blazers eventually get around to building a cohesive team (a very big if, granted), he will have a team that can grow with him. If that happens, the statistical community will have an optimistic set of projections for those who follow in Telfair’s and Livingston’s footsteps, and the folks at Adidas will be very, very happy.