So Much for the Madness.

In the first octet of NCAA Tournament games yesterday, all we got was a heavy dose of March Predictability. Most of the favored teams won (save Duke), and the games were rarely close.

In the big picture, though, perhaps that’s OK. Let me tell you about a hypothesis I call the Inverse Theory of First-Round Tournament Games. This theory states that the fewer upsets there are in the opening round, the better quality of games we get on the weekend.

The logic on this one is pretty sound if you think about it. If, for instance, 10th-seeded Texas Tech had defeated 7th-seeded Boston College yesterday, then the Red Raiders almost certainly would have been pounded to smithereens by no. 2 Georgetown on Saturday. Instead, we get the Eagles and Hoyas in an old school Big East showdown (I refuse to acknowledge a team with the word Boston in its name as an ACC club), and it should be one of the highlights of the weekend.

But perhaps no two schools illustrate this idea better than Butler and Maryland. The Bulldogs and Terrapins both fought off scrappy underdogs to survive in the opening round, and now are slated to give us what I expect to be the best game of Round 2.

I have a few reasons for thinking this. First, obviously, they’re both really good. Butler isn’t exactly a household name, but the private school in Indianapolis has quietly put together a powerhouse of a basketball program. They went 27–6 this year, and while they played in a weak conference, they proved their bona fides outside the low-caliber Horizon League — the Bulldogs beat Tennessee and Notre Dame on the road, and also own wins over Purdue, Indiana, and Gonzaga.

As for the Terps, they’re quality is more widely known. They closed the year with seven straight ACC wins, finished 25–8 overall, and went 10–6 in the tough ACC.

But the primary reason I’m interested in this game is because I think whoever wins will provide Florida with its toughest challenge between now and the Final Four. Both Maryland and yes, Butler, have the tools to give the Gators a game.

Oddly enough, Maryland also provides the closest thing we have to local interest in this tournament — leading scorer D.J. Strawberry is the progeny of former Mets star Darryl Strawberry. And as it turns out, Strawberry was the key to Maryland’s 82–70 victory over Davidson yesterday despite a limited offensive role.

For the first two-thirds of the contest, the Terps were getting run ragged by another famous son — freshman Stephen Curry, the offspring of former Charlotte Hornets sharpshooter, Dell Curry. This Curry is a 3-point ace just like his dad, with a hair-trigger release so similar that it was jarring to see him wearing Davidson’s rather than the teal togs his dad sported.

Curry showed he was legit by torching the Terps for 23 points in the game’s first 22 minutes, helping the Wildcats take a surprising eight-point lead. But at that point, Terrapins coach Gary Williams switched Strawberry onto Curry. Better late than never: The 6-foot-5-inch senior held Davidson’s star without a point for more than 12 minutes while the Terps went on a 25–11 run to regain command.

In an odd way, it was an impressive win by Maryland. The team won by double figures even though it was incredibly sloppy in the first 24 minutes. The Terps made 16 turnovers in that time, mostly because they threw so many bad entry passes into the post that I had to make sure I hadn’t accidentally clicked over to a Knicks game.

They also had a few staggering defensive lapses. Three times in the first half a Davidson player casually dribbled upcourt and then passed to a guy who was standing wide, buck-naked open — in one case, right under the basket. Those are inexcusable screw-ups, and obviously the Terps will have to up the concentration level to get by the likes of Florida or even Butler. But that Maryland survived those mistakes so easily speaks to its talent level.

As for Butler, they can’t hang with Florida on pure talent. But one thing they have in their favor is a staggeringly slow pace. Yesterday’s game against Old Dominion was a 20–19 contest at halftime, and it’s not because the Bulldogs are a bad offensive team. They’re just extremely deliberate and constantly grind the clock down, leading to fewer possessions by both teams. Since the extremes of pace are much more widely separated in college hoops than pros, this explains why the typical Butler game had a final score in the 50s or 60s.

This also partly explains why Butler could lose to teams like Illinois-Chicago and Indiana State, even as they were beating nationally ranked powers. The fewer possessions there are, the fewer chances one team has to take a commanding lead. As a result, Butler’s games are almost always close unless the talent disparity is absolutely enormous. Against a team as loaded as Florida, that might prove to be Butler’s best shot.

But it also might help them against Maryland, another team that likes to get out and run. The Terrapins took advantage of Davidson’s willingness to play their tempo, forcing 17 turnovers by using a lot of full-court pressure and baiting the Wildcats into several rushed jumpers. With a veteran backcourt and a methodical style, Butler will be much more resistant to such bait.

Instead, the paint is where the Terps will have the upper hand. Look for Butler to play a packed-in sagging defense against Maryland, much as Davidson did, because Mike Jones is the Terps’ only scary, long-range weapon. But Maryland will have a size advantage against a Butler team that doesn’t have a player taller than 6-foot-7. The Bulldog’s lack of size showed even against lowly ODU, as the Bulldogs gave up 12 offensive boards Thursday. They figure to give up several more against the Terps.

So even though the first block of games proved substandard in terms of excitement, the glass halffull take is that we’ve got better days ahead. Maryland-Butler should be a classic battle of turtle vs. hare on Saturday, and if we look further ahead the winner figures to give the defending champions a stern test next week. Maybe by then March will have become a little more mad.

jhollinger@nysun.com