Welcome to the premier game of the weekend. Two bitter division rivals face off a third time, each one having beaten the other on the opponent’s home turf. But this time, the loser heads home until September.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-5)
(Sunday, 4:30 p.m., CBS)

WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL

In Week 7, the Steelers ran on the Bengals at will. Willie Parker gained 131 yards on just 18 carries and Jerome Bettis gained 56 yards on 13 carries. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had to throw only 14 passes, and just two Steelers – receiver Hines Ward and tight end Heath Miller – had receptions.

But in Week 13, Parker and Bettis combined for just 84 yards on 23 carries, and Roethlisberger ended up throwing 41 passes.

This is not an issue of the Steelers running when they had a second half lead. The Steelers had 14 first-half carries in the first game, 16 in the second. But they were getting 5.1 yards per carry in the first game, only 2.8 yards per carry in the second.

Two players made the difference, both named Smith. Pittsburgh left tackle Marvel Smith was injured for the second game, replaced by rookie Trai Essex. Essex struggled and leftside sweeps broke down completely. Even All-Pro guard Alan Faneca looked lost. And moving the tight end to the left side to help Essex meant that rightside runs had problems as well.

Smith is back now, so the Steelers’ running game should improve. But the Bengals have been concentrating on stopping the run in recent weeks. Before their Week 10 bye, the Bengals allowed 4.9 yards per carry. From that point until Week 16 (they pulled the starting defense in the final game), the Bengals allowed just 3.5 yards per carry.

Part of that is the other Smith: Cincinnati defensive tackle Shaun Smith. The Bengals only use Smith as a situational run-stopper, but he can provide a major impact in the middle of the line. He was inactive for the first game with the Steelers, but a big part of the run defense in the second game.

The problem is that by concentrating on the run, the Bengals hurt their pass defense, so they;ve gone from allowing 5.5 net yards per play to allowing 7.4 net yards per pass play. Cincinnati’s pass defense leads the league with 31 interceptions, but they are also overly dependent on interceptions, and when they aren’t picking off the ball they give up plenty of yards.

The Bengals also have a huge weakness defending passes to tight ends, ranking 29th in the league, so Steelers rookie Heath Miller could have another huge day against them. This is part of why the Bengals are poor against the short field, with DVOA ranking the defense 26th in the red zone – while the Steelers offense ranks third in the red zone.

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

One of the most interesting aspects of this matchup is the way the Pittsburgh defense and Cincinnati offense are almost perfectly matched.

The Bengals’ offense is powerful and diverse. They are great on the ground and in the air, and they can beat you with multiple combinations of players. They have two great wide receivers in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but they also have Rudi Johnson at running back – and when you least expect it, the big play will be made by shifty third down back Chris Perry or rookie receiver Chris Henry or even underrated tight end Matt Schobel.

The Pittsburgh defense is powerful and diverse. The defense is packed with All-Pros (linebacker Joey Porter, safety Troy Polamalu) and should-be All-Pros (defensive end Aaron Smith, nose tackle Casey Hampton). Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau invented the zone blitz and the pass rush could come from anywhere at any time.

Cincinnati’s offensive line is excellent, ranking second in the league, allowing just 22 sacks. Pittsburgh’s pass rush is also excellent, ranking third in the league with 47 sacks.

The Bengals’ running game is best when Johnson is running up the middle or behind one of Cincinnati’s outstanding tackles, Levi Jones or Willie Anderson. But the Steelers run defense is best at stopping runs up the middle or behind one of the tackles.

Weakness also matches weakness. In Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defense, one linebacker usually drops back into deep coverage. That exposes Pittsburgh to big gains on passes to running backs. But Cincinnati doesn’t throw to its running backs particularly well.

The biggest difference between the two games on this side of the ball? In their first meeting, Carson Palmer threw two interceptions and Shayne Graham missed an easy early field goal. In the second game, Palmer threw touchdowns on three straight drives in the first half.

The second game also saw Cincinnati leaving tight ends or backs behind to protect against the Pittsburgh blitzers. The Bengals did an excellent job picking up the pass rush, and that led directly to some of their biggest plays, such as a six-yard pass to an open Houshmandzadeh for the third Cincinnati touchdown.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Each team has a particular advantage here. The Bengals ranked seventh in our kick return ratings while Pittsburgh ranked 20th on kickoffs. The Steelers ranked 12th in our punt return ratings while Cincinnati ranked 24th in punting. Of course, for Pittsburgh’s Antwaan Randle El, every punt return is an adventure. He had two punt return touchdowns and a third long return for 72 yards, but also five returns that lost yardage and two lost fumbles.

OUTLOOK

These two teams are evenly matched and basically tied in our statistics. Cincinnati has the home-field advantage, but that didn’t seem to mean much in the first two meetings. The players are emotional, the crowd even more so, and the result is completely up in the air, so just sit back and enjoy the action.

The Pick: Pick ’em