At the outset of the season, most observers figured the Nets would fall into one of three categories. They would either challenge for a title as one of the NBA’s elite teams, make a deep playoff run as one of the Eastern Conference’s stronger clubs, or they would at least win the Atlantic Division but fall a bit short of Detroit and Miami’s level.

Only a few dire pessimists (most likely bitter community activists in Brooklyn who oppose the impending move of the franchise to the Atlantic Rail Yards) figured that the right answer was none of the above. Yet the Nets have managed to prove them right so far. One fifth of the way through the season, New Jersey has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments.

The Nets enter tonight’s game at Charlotte with a record of 7-9, not even good enough for a playoff spot, much less a claim to elite status. Saturday’s 95-82 loss to Toronto, in which the Nets scored all of 32 points in the second half, has only heightened the sense that something is desperately wrong with the team.

Drastic solutions have been put on the table. My colleague John Hollinger called for the team to trade forward Richard Jefferson, their best young player, for a perimeter stopper like Mickael Pietrus of Golden State. Veteran scribe Peter Vecsey went even further, suggesting that the Nets trade Jason Kidd to Miami to bring Alonzo Mourning back to the Meadowlands. If those are the solutions, it may be best to live with the problem.

Although I bristle at the severity of the prescriptions from these hoops doctors, I agree with their prognoses. The Nets’ woes are entirely on the defensive end, and that’s a big surprise. Since Kidd arrived in New Jersey in 2001, the Nets have never finished lower than 7th in Defensive Efficiency (a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions). This season, the team has sunk to 24th, allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions. Without improvement here, you can drag all of the early season forecasts into the trash bin. The Nets have improved offensively, moving up from 27th in Offensive Efficiency (101.3) to 15th (106.2), but nowhere near enough to offset their failings at the defensive end.

Some of these problems should have been anticipated in the early going for the Nets. Due to injuries, the current starting five – center Jason Collins, forwards Nenad Krstic and Richard Jefferson, and guards Kidd and Vince Carter – spent very little time on the floor together in 2004-05. In addition, of the Nets reserves, only Clifford Robinson and Jacques Vaughn were on the roster last season, and Robinson played just 29 games after arriving in a trade with Golden State. It might be useful to let the roster develop some rapport and chemistry before making major changes.

Unlike San Antonio or Detroit, where shot blocking and intimidation in the paint is at the core of the defense, the smaller, quicker Nets’ have traditionally excelled at disrupting teams on the perimeter, closing easy passing lanes to interior players and denying open looks. To do this, the team has to adjust quickly to screens and rotate to open men. This is where the current Nets have failed badly. Last year’s team was fourth in forcing turnovers. This season’s team is 24th.

The Nets tend to either trap after screens or the defender goes under the screen (which as Hollinger noted last week, has led to a large number of open jumpers for opponents). Trapping is often an all-or-nothing strategy that results in the discombobulated offense either frittering the ball away or earning a layup. Krstic and reserve pivotman Marc Jackson in particular have been slow to rotate to the open man, often resulting in an easy basket after the trap.

This same problem – opponents getting free paths to the rim – is also leading to the Nets giving up 29.1 free throws per 100 field goal attempts, sec ond worst in the league. This has led to late game situations where the entire line up is in foul trouble.

Nets coach Lawrence Frank is a superb tactician, and he will either have to devise better traps off screens (tall perimeter players like Kidd, Jefferson, and Carter are excellent trappers due to their length). Or they may have to adjust to a more conservative approach, such as switching off of screens.

The free throw situation was a big reason for Saturday’s loss. The Raptors went to the stripe 36 times, canning 32 of the shots (the Nets made just 20 free throws). Without quick reaction to screens and picks, the Nets’ defense is lost. Even if he grows an afro, nobody will think of Nenad Krstic as a Ben Wallace-type intimidator.

Since the Toronto loss, Kidd and other Nets have spoken about the need to redouble their defensive intensity, and tonight’s game against the Bobcats should provide a good opportunity to showcase their effort. The Bobcats are a good defensive team (11th in the Efficiency) and a weak offensive one, (22nd). It looks like coach Bernie Bickerstaff is building toward a team that will be ready to contend soon if their offense comes around.

Although NBA teams hold a large home court advantage, this is a winnable game for the Nets if they ratchet up the defensive effort. Kidd typically dominates small point guards like Charlotte’s Brevin Knight. Power forward Emeka Okafor, the reigning Rookie of the Year, is going through a sophomore slump, hitting only 38.6% of his shots, but the Bobcats have been powered by small forward Gerald Wallace, who’s shooting the lights out this season, averaging 15.6 points per game. The Bobcats will likely employ a variety of screens to free up Wallace, which will test any new defensive tactics from the Nets.

Tonight’s game in Charlotte starts a crucial stretch of 10 games that could very well define the Nets season. On their upcoming schedule, only Friday’s game in Cleveland and a December 20th home game against the Clippers will welcome the Nets as underdogs (and even as an early passenger on the Clipper bandwagon, that last plaudit feels strange to type). An 8-2 run would leave New Jersey at 15-11 and moving in the right direction at Christmas. A 4-6 run, however, should lead team president Rod Thorn to entertain major roster changes, as the Nets won’t be able to contend for a title as presently constructed.