This year’s edition of Goliath versus David involves a much more dangerous scenario for the Yankees. Although they’re coming off of a season in which they tied for the league lead in home runs (242), and finished second in runs scored (897), they’re facing a Twins team with the best starting pitching of any postseason team, an outstanding bullpen, and a talented lineup. Will the Yankees repeat the disappointment of the last two years and lose to a younger, more balanced ballclub?

Here’s a look at the teams, using Baseball Prospectus’s Value Over Replacement Player metric. VORP measure how many runs a player creates as compared to a freely available replacement or Triple-A player at his position, someone not unlike Joe McEwing.

MINNESOTA TWINS

BATTING ORDER

POS PLAYER VORP

DH/LF SHANNON STEWART 25.3
LF/DH LEW FORD 43.1
CF TORII HUNTER 30.7
1B JUSTIN MORNEAU 22.3
3B COREY KOSKIE 25.7
RF JACQUE JONES 9.7
SS CRISTIAN GUZMAN 14.8
2B LUIS RIVAS 11.3
C HENRY BLANCO -8.1

Depending on your point of view, the lineup is either balanced, or missing any great strength. The Twins finished 10th in the AL in runs scored. But the front six features a core of young veterans wrapped around a budding star slugger in Morneau. Nobody had a career year, so the lineup might seem deceptively weak. The two sore spots – literally – are at second base and catcher.

Behind the plate, the Twins have to get by with Blanco and Pat Borders in place of the inured Matt LeCroy and Joe Mauer; at third, Rivas’s bad elbow might push Michael Cuddyer into the starting lineup.

BENCH

Like his mentor Tom Kelly before him, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has been determined to assemble benches he can turn to often. Cuddyer is able to play any of the non-shortstop positions in the infield and either outfield corner; he’ll be plugged into any leak.

Jason Kubel might be a bit of a secret; after slugging .592 in the minors this year, the 22-year-old has looked good since his late August call-up.

You can expect Kubel, LeCroy, and Jose Offerman to be used aggressively as pinch-hitters for the catchers.

STARTING PITCHING

PLAYER VORP

JOHAN SANTANA 88.8
BRAD RADKE 60.1
CARLOS SILVA 40.5
KYLE LOHSE 6.3

Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, but he heads up a rotation underrated because of its lack of star power. Radke quietly posted one of the 10 best seasons of any pitcher in the game, and Silva has enjoyed a better year than anyone the Yankees will call upon. Santana and Radke both pitched well against New York this year, while Silva struggled in his lone August appearance against them. In games Lohse starts, the Twins will be hoping to outscore the opposition early, and get to the bullpen as soon as possible.

BULLPEN

PLAYER VORP

JOE NATHAN 36.5
JUAN RINCON 30.2
J.C. ROMERO 19.9
JESSE CRAIN 12.8
TERRY MULHOLLAND 9.6
GRANT BALFOUR 8.4

The surprise here is that Gardenhire elected to go with youth over experience, bumping veterans Joe Roa and Aaron Fultz in favor of Crain and Balfour. The decision should serve the Twins well, as both young right-handers have dominating stuff. Nathan has been exceptionally effective in closing games, while Rincon has been one of the game’s best setup men. Romero’s anything but a situational lefty, instead working as a true lefty middle reliever. Beyond the rubber-armed geezer Mulholland, nobody in this deep pen is particularly hittable.

NEW YORK YANKEES

BATTING ORDER

POS PLAYER VORP

SS DEREK JETER 60.3
3B ALEX RODRIGUEZ 63.0
RF GARY SHEFFIELD 63.8
CF BERNIE WILLIAMS 31.3
C JORGE POSADA 49.7
LF HIDEKI MATSUI 58.3
DH RUBEN SIERRA 10.2
1B JOHN OLERUD 13.4
2B MIGUEL CAIRO 22.4

The Yankees’ power-dependent lineup is able to grind all but the best opposing starters into pulp by the fifth or sixth innings. Given the age of some of the regular or semi-regular players, it’s also a lineup that needs to rely on its depth now and again. The lineup will be jumbled for right-handed pitchers (with Kenny Lofton coming in at DH or in center), and depending on who’s healthy enough to play.

BENCH

The bench is really two different groups of players: the guys who might start, and the guys only a major emergency will force into action. Lofton will start against most right-handed pitchers and spot-start for Williams in center; with Jason Giambi off the playoff roster, Tony Clark might start against Santana if he draws the short straw.

Joe Torre will continue his willingness to mix and match at DH, first base, and the outfield, and he’ll always take a chance on Sierra pinch-hitting in a key moment. Enrique Wilson will only play if Cairo hurts himself, and John Flaherty only in case of a Posada emergency.

STARTING PITCHING

PLAYER VORP

MIKE MUSSINA 23.0
JON LIEBER 27.3
ORLANDO HERNANDEZ 27.6
KEVIN BROWN 26.4
JAVIER VAZQUEZ 23.1

There are no certainties about anybody in the rotation. A lot depends on El Duque’s tired shoulder; factor in Brown’s hand and back woes, Mussina’s mere mediocrity, Vazquez’s unpredictability, and you’re left with some nice things to say about Jon Lieber’s solid September.

The problem with nominating Lieber for postseason heroics is that he’s always been highly vulnerable to lefty hitters (.346 AVG/.358 OBA/.524 SLG this season), and the Twins have a lineup heavy on lefties who can drive the ball.If Hernandez can live up to his reputation for inspired Octobers, the Yankees might be able to paper over their problems. But this is a rotation that will have trouble keeping the load off a bullpen that needs to be left on the shelf.

BULLPEN

PLAYER VORP

MARIANO RIVERA 37.9
TOM GORDON 39.6
PAUL QUANTRILL 12.5
TANYON STURTZE 4.9
ESTEBAN LOAIZA 2.8
FELIX HEREDIA -1.0

As bullpens go, you’d be hard-pressed to find a shallower outfit on a 100-win team. Rivera is the greatest reliever in postseason history, and Gordon had a superb year setting him up; after that, you run into significant problems. Quantrill was used up by the All-Star break, and down the stretch the Yankees have been forced to rely on journeyman Sturtze. Heredia is too wild to be a reliable lefty situational reliever, but he has his moments.

The absence of reliable help in middle relief might create a worn-out pen by the end of the series, or encourage Torre to use his best pair as early as the seventh inning.

THE MATCHUP

Neither Torre nor Gardenhire is afraid to pinch-hit in key situations, which should make for a fun series. The Yankees are clearly the better offensive ballclub, but it’s a strength born of patience and power. While those qualities kill mediocre pitching, the Twins aren’t relying on mediocrity.

The Twins also sport a better lineup than they did at season’s start – a factor that can be missed when looking at raw numbers. Morneau is poised to treat October as a coming-out party, with the short porch and the Yankees’ starters looking helpful on that score.

The Twins have a major advantage on the mound, with a better rotation and a significantly deeper pen. They also boast an outstanding, athletic defense, particularly in the outfield. This year’s Yankee infield is significantly better than in years past, but they also sport a slow outfield, questionable starting pitching, and a bullpen they can’t trust before the eighth inning.

The Twins should be able to hang tough in the non-Santana starts, and win the games they get from the Cy Young Award favorite.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.