The Southeast Division has had several looks and forecasts during the first few months of the season. Before the season began, it was widely assumed that defending champs Miami would have an easy run to the division title. But then Miami stumbled early on and Orlando won 13 of their first 17. Orlando started to look like the team to beat. Yet by the time Christmas shopping season shifted into high gear, the Magic faltered, and the Wizards were in the midst of an impressive streak, winning 21 out of 27. So at the midpoint of the campaign it looked as if Washington would walk off with the division — that is until forward Antawn Jamison injured his knee and the Wizards went into a tailspin.

Now with nine weeks to go in the regular season, it looks as if the Southeast Division will be one of the most entertaining races. Each of the three presumed leaders has a good chance to win it and gain a first-tier seeding in the playoffs. Although four games separate the three teams, other indicators including team health suggest that this race will go down to the wire.

Until recently, Washington was the hottest team in the Eastern Conference, and guard Gilbert Arenas was mounting a fairly solid MVP candidacy. It seemed as if once a week, he went for 50 points against someone. Then last week, Jamison hurt his knee, and it all quickly fell apart. Jamison is only the Wizards’ third-leading scorer, but Washington wins by outscoring opponents. Only Phoenix outpaces the Wizards (106 points per game), but the Wizards’ defense is as porous as its offense is potent; Washington allows 106.1 points per game.

That negative point differential is the first sign of trouble; it suggests that Washington’s 28–21 record is a bit over its head. Consider also that Jamison contributes 19.3 points and 7.9 boards per game. He’ll be out another 2–5 weeks, and there’s no one in the Wizards’ rotation to match his production. With only two significant offensive threats — Arenas and Caron Butler (20.7 ppg) — the Wizards have been much easier to shut down. As if to underscore the problem, Portland, another bottom-five defensive team, held Washington to 73 points on Sunday.

In Orlando, the reverse is the problem. The Magic, 26–26, is an excellent defensive team and ranks in the top 6 in Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). But they often struggle to score as their fourth quarter drought against the Nets Saturday night vividly illustrated. And Saturday night wasn’t a fluke — the Magic rank 24th in Offensive Efficiency.

This season appeared to be the first time in years that the Magic weren’t dependent on the health of oft-injured (yes, an understatement) forward Grant Hill, but it hasn’t been the case. Hill has been present for 39 of Orlando’s 52 games, and he’s all over their leaderboard: second among starters in points per game and shooting percentage as well as third in rebounds and assists.

The other persistent problem for the Magic is turnovers. They rank near the bottom — or put another way, near the Knicks — in most turnovers a game. All-Star Dwight Howard is one of the main culprits, coughing the ball up nearly four times a game. This is something the Magic may have to write off as a growing pain, but it should also make them that much more active as the trade deadline approaches: Another scorer is needed. Vince Carter is the obvious answer, but the Magic will need alternatives if the Nets choose not to deal.

Miami’s troubles have been well chronicled. The injury to Shaquille O’Neal and the hiatus taken by coach Pat Riley are but two of several problems that have turned the defending champs into a second-tier team in the weaker conference. Several members of the team’s rotation, notably Antoine Walker and Gary Payton, have played miserably. Were it not for an MVP-caliber performance by Dwyane Wade and solid contributions by Jason Kapono and Alonzo Mourning, the Heat might have sunken to the depths of the Celtics and Sixers. The recent addition of Eddie Jones and the return to form (albeit diminished) of O’Neal should bolster the Heat’s prospects. At 25–26, they have a good chance of making it to 43 victories, which in this division should carry the day.

The schedules down the stretch may determine the division. Washington has one long West Coast road trip remaining. Orlando still has a trip through the fearsome Texas triangle. The Heat has games at Houston and Dallas and a smattering of other challenges within the conference. Overall, the race may come down to the teams’ games against each other. Washington hosts Orlando on the final Tuesday night of the season, then on the last night of the regular season, Miami goes to Orlando. The contest in Florida could determine the final playoff spot, with the loser going home. None of these teams can be considered serious title threats, but the race among them should make for great drama as the regular season grinds to a close.

mjohnson@nysun.com