The clock is about to hit midnight for the NCAA Tournament’s biggest Cinderella.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee, the no. 12 seed in the Chicago region, became the darling of the tournament last week by upsetting no. 5 Alabama and no. 4 Boston College to advance to the Sweet 16. But the Panthers face a daunting task in their next game, as they face no. 1 seed Illinois tonight (7:25 p.m., CBS).

Suffice it to say that history is not on the Panthers’ side. You might think, given that UWM is two games away from the Final Four, that they have a roughly 1-in-4 chance of making it all the way to St. Louis. However, the trends say it’s more like a 1-in-47 chance. Of the 47 teams seeded no. 9 or lower to advance to the Sweet 16, only one has reached the Final Four. Moreover, in the 12 times that a no. 12 seed has advanced to a regional semifinal to meet a no. 1 seed, the no. 12 seed has lost every time, most by lopsided scores.

UWM plays a running, pressing style that drove Boston College and Alabama to distraction. Unfortunately, that style plays right into Illinois’s hands. The Illini backcourt of Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Deron Williams is the best in the country, and among the best in the history of college hoops. They’ll be more than happy to burn the Panthers’ pressure and set up easy baskets for their teammates.

UWM’s only faint hope is the 3-pointer, a weapon they used to great effect in the first two rounds. The Panthers shot a combined 23-of-45 against ‘Bama and B.C., a 51% accuracy rate. Here’s the bad news: The law of averages is going to catch up with UWM real soon.

No UWM player shot better than 41.2% on 3-pointers during the regular season. Two players in particular were over their heads: Ed McCants and Adrian Tigert. The 6-foot-3 McCants, UWM’s leading scorer, shot 9-for-17 last week after hitting 38% from downtown during the season.

McCants has nothing on Tigert, however, who hasn’t missed a shot in the tournament. The 6-foot-8 forward is a perfect 11-for-11, including 4-for-4 on 3-pointers. Tigert was a high-percentage player during the season (58.9% from the field, 41.2% on 3-pointers), but nobody is this high percentage a player.

Despite the odds, we’ll all be watching and rooting for the plucky underdogs to pull one more upset. What I like about this team is that they attack and pressure, whereas a lot of Cinderella types try to slow the game down and lull their more talented opponents to sleep. So even if Illinois blasts UWM out of the water, it should be an entertaining game with a frenetic pace. The Tournament could use more games like that.

Illinois-UWM is the highlight, but tonight features three other important Sweet 16 battles, too. Let’s take a look:

(NO. 1) WASHINGTON VS. (NO. 4) LOUISVILLE
7:10 P.M., ALBUQUERQUE

The winner of this game will become the overwhelming favorite to be the Albuquerque region’s representative in the Final Four. Both teams looked outstanding during the first weekend, but Louisville’s effort against Georgia Tech was especially notable.

The Cardinals overwhelmed the Yellow jackets with their 3-point shooting and suffocating defense in the opening minutes. Tech was a rambling wreck from then on.

Washington hasn’t gotten much ink, but the Huskies shouldn’t be taken lightly. Think of them as the Phoenix Suns of college basketball. The team has no size to speak of and isn’t terribly strong defensively, but it’s so fast and skilled offensively that it hardly seems to matter.

The Huskies take their cues from the blazing speed of 5-foot-9 point guard Nate Robinson, but don’t overlook running mates Brandon Roy and Tre Simmons. Both average in double figures, benefiting from the havoc that Robinson creates with his penetration. And in a refreshing twist, all five starters are actually from Washington.

Louisville counters with more size and defense and a deadly 3-point attack led by guards Larry O’Bannon and Taquan Dean. But swingman Francisco Garcia is the pivotal player. He’s the Cards’ leading scorer and often has to be their offensive orchestrator since Dean isn’t a natural point guard.

The key to the game will be pace. Louisville will dominate in half-court sets, but if Washington can force turnovers with full-court pressure and create a helter-skelter contest, then the Huskies will have the upper hand.

(NO. 6) TEXAS TECH VS. (NO. 7) WEST VIRGINIA
9:40 P.M., ALBUQUERQUE

In case we needed another reason to root against Texas Tech coach/curmudgeon Bobby Knight after last week’s infantile tantrum about his tenure at Indiana, we have the upstart story of West Virginia. The Mountaineers looked NIT-bound heading into the final days of the Big East season, but they could end up being the last Big East team standing in this tournament. West Virginia has won nine of its past 11 games, including wins over Boston College and Villanova in the Big East tournament and last weekend’s thrilling double-OT upset of no. 2 seed Wake Forest.

History says the Mountaineers have a good shot.No.7 seeds have a solid batting average in regional semifinals, going 5-for-13; no. 6 seeds, on the other hand, are just 11-for-30. West Virginia’s 3-point-heavy style could cause problems for Tech, since the Red Raiders don’t face any teams like that in the more power-oriented Big 12.

On the other hand, the Mountaineers face a quickness deficit in the backcourt against Tech’s Jarrious Jackson and Ronald Ross. The duo decimated Gonzaga in the second half last week and will have to do the same for Knight’s whining to last another game.

(NO. 2) OKLAHOMA STATE VS. (NO. 3) ARIZONA
9:55 P.M., CHICAGO

The anticlimactic follow-up to the Illinois game for the locals pits two teams who could pose a serious threat to the Illini in the regional final. If you haven’t seen Arizona’s Salim Stoudamire, the cousin of Portland’s Damon Stoudmire, get a good look tonight. He’s one of the best shooters you will ever see, nailing an amazing 51.3% of his 3-point shots while leading the Wildcats in scoring.

Arizona, however, is soft inside and can get beaten up on the glass – weaknesses that are tailor-made for the tough, physical Cowboys. Okie State’s Ivan McFarlin dominated the middle against Southern Illinois in the second round and, despite a height disadvantage, could do the same against Arizona. 6-foot-5 guard Daniel Bobik is likely to get the first crack at guarding Stoudamire, with the hope being that his 4-inch height advantage can alter Stoudamire’s shots. Somebody will have to, or Eddie Sutton’s team won’t be making a repeat trip to the Final Four.