Time’s Running Out on Ice-Cold Heat
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If, at the beginning of the season, you foretold a future where after 24 games the Knicks and Miami Heat would have the same record, most of your believers would think that this boded well for the Knicks.
The reality is that after 24 games (going into last night’s action), the Knicks and the Heat have the same 7–17 mark, and no one — not even Knicks’ coach Isiah Thomas — has nice things to say about his team. So where does that leave the Heat?
There are a fair amount of barbs being thrown around the Heat facilities. Aging center Shaquille O’Neal, a future Hall of Famer, has expressed displeasure with his play and the inability of his teammates to get him the ball. All-Star guard Dwyane Wade criticized Shaq for not taking on more of a leadership role early in the season. There are rumors that point guard Jason Williams, a key cog to the Heat’s NBA title team in 2006, is on the trading block after losing his starting job to Chris Quinn, a second-year player with little star potential.
Before the season started, the Heat dealt Antoine Walker to Minnesota for Ricky Davis, a shooting guard whose recalcitrant behavior has made him a journeyman at a young age. The opening night lineup was so thin that 36-year-old Anfernee Hardaway, who hadn’t appeared in an NBA game for two years, made the rotation. Lastly, the Heat told point guard Smush Parker to stay away from the team due to his poor conditioning and an altercation with a parking valet. The Heat seemed to be doing one of the quickest penthouse-to-outhouse plunges in league history.
Early in the season, I began to wonder if the Heat title was worth it for them. Three seasons ago, the team looked like a young, up-andcoming unit, led by Wade, Caron Butler, and Lamar Odom. Instead, Odom and Butler were dealt for O’Neal, other young players were dealt for Walker and Williams, and a title celebration occurred 18 months ago. Now, they look like a team in exorable freefall with not a lot of future prospects.
But perhaps that’s too harsh. Wade missed all of training camp recovering from knee and shouldersurgeries, andtheHeatdoesn’t play well in his absence. Upon his return, in a 104–95 loss to lowly Seattle in Miami on November 14, Wade’s play was inconsistent. His per game totals were all off from his career averages and his 41.7% shooting was well below his norm. This seemed like a coming up to speed period. Since December 1, he’s looked like a player worthy of a cell phone ad campaign. He’s averaging 25.3 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game while shooting 47% from the field.
This should be reason for some optimism, but the Heat has still lost six of nine going into last night’s action. Since Wade’s return to MVPcaliberform, O’Neal’s numbers have been off by nearly a third. Although the Heat are thought of as an old team due to O’Neal who is 35, backup center Alonzo Mourning, who is 37, and Williams, who is 32, the rest of the key contributors are in their 20s.
The problem is that the younger players are either inconsistent or not very good. Swingman Dorell Wright took a goose egg in 25 minutes during Heat’s win over the Timberwolves on Monday night. Given the amount of double teaming that Shaq and Wade attract, you’d think it would lead to some open looks for Wright, but he only took three shots and bricked each one. The lone bit of good news among the Heat youth has been the play of rookie guard Daequan Cook, who is shooting 44.2% and averaging 8.7 points per game in 20 minutes of burn.
A close look at the point differential suggests that the Heat aren’t as bad as their 7–17 record would suggest; instead of a team in danger of losing 60 games, they are a team that are on pace to lose only 49. Then, if you factor in Wade’s continued strong play, the likelihood that Cook or Quinn will become productive, and the possibility that a decent role-player or two might be obtained in a trade for Williams and Parker, maybe, just maybe the Heat could flirt with .500. But that’s the rose-colored glass version. Equally likely is the possibility that the Heat will only win on nights that both Wade and O’Neal play well and they get solid contributions from players like Davis, power forward Udonis Haslem, and at least one or two of the young players (and it happens from time to time — they beat the Suns in Phoenix last week). In addition, O’Neal has yet to miss a game this season, yet he has missed 74 during his first three campaigns in Miami. It would be optimistic to expect him to continue his perfect attendance this year.
The Heat face the Nets tonight, then play another struggling Eastern Conference contender, the Cleveland Cavaliers, on Christmas Day. If coach Pat Riley is shrewd, he will be using these games to accelerate the rebuilding process. Seventeen months ago when Wade signed his extension, he chose to ink a four-year deal instead of the five seasons to which he was entitled. In addition, he has an opt-out clause after the 2009–10 season. In other words, he can be an unrestricted free agent in 30 months.
After Wade and the Cavs’ LeBron James signed similar deals, everyone assumed that the pressure was on Cleveland to build a team around James. They built enough of one to go to the finals last June. Instead, the real pressure is on Miami. They are stumbling now, but in a few years, they might be looking up at the Knicks in the standings rather than sharing the same poor rank.
mjohnson@nysun.com