Titanic Division May Actually Send Two to Playoffs

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to change our assumptions about the Eastern Conference playoff race. As you’ll soon see, this is great news for Knicks and Nets fans.For weeks now, we’ve been pondering the local teams’ playoff chances primarily in terms of winning the miserable Atlantic Division. We’ve operated under the assumption that nobody could possibly come in second in this travesty of a division and still earn a postseason berth.In the wake of recent events, we may need to revisit those assumptions. If we ponder the Eastern Conference standings, six teams seem relatively secure as playoff teams: Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, and Indiana in the Central Division, and Orlando and Washington in the Southeast. All six entered yesterday’s contests at least two games over .500, which for the teams in the Atlantic Division is akin to standing atop Mount Everest.The seventh spot, of course, will go to the Atlantic’s “champion” — which everyone but Philadelphia seems to have a decent shot at — leaving the other four teams in the mix for the conference’s final playoff spot.That spot is where things get interesting. Entering yesterday’s play, Milwaukee was in the no. 8 position with a record of 16–18, having dropped three straight games to find itself just a game and a half ahead of the Nets and Heat, two games ahead of New York, and three and a half games ahead of Boston. So if the Bucks falter, three of the next four teams in the queue hail from the Atlantic.Moreover, there’s every reason to expect Milwaukee to slip because it will be without leading scorer Michael Redd for the next six weeks. He suffered a strained patellar tendon last week in an agonizing way, hurting himself on the landing after going up for a meaningless dunk with 14 seconds left in a 95–86 win. (Note to self: Lay the ball in during garbage time.)This loss will leave a deep wound. Though Redd doesn’t get the adulation of some of the game’s other elite players, he has been every bit their equal this season. By my Player Efficiency Rating (PER), only four players in the Eastern Conference — Miami’s Dwyane Wade, Washington’s Gilbert Arenas, Cleveland’s LeBron James, and Boston’s Paul Pierce — ranked ahead of the Bucks’ lefty gunner. Thanks to his antics, Milwaukee had been the league’s hottest offensive team since Christmas, propelling them over .500 after a sluggish start to the season.All that is out the window now, however, as the Bucks have become the latest victim to the league-wide rash of injuries. Yes, there are injuries every year, but this season it’s been completely insane. You could easily put together a “Dream Team” just from players that are on the shelf right now — Houston’s Yao Ming and Miami’s Shaquille O’Neal can be the centers, Boston’s Paul Pierce, Seattle’s Rashard Lewis and Denver’s suspended Carmelo Anthony the forwards, and Redd, the Hornets’ Chris Paul, and the Pistons’ Chauncey Billups the backcourt.Unfortunately, the injury bug tends to pack more of a punch in the East because so few of its teams have the requisite depth to withstand the loss of a key player. This is an underrated factor when people try to understand the disparity between the two leagues — the East has plenty of A-list talent, but because most of its teams aren’t well-managed there’s a glaring paucity of B- and C-list level players compared to the West.It should be said that the Bucks are relatively well-run by Eastern standards, but unfortunately Redd’s loss hasn’t been their only calamity. Starting power forward Charlie Villanueva is out with a shoulder problem, starting small forward Bobby Simmons hasn’t played a game this year due to a heel problem, and starting point guard Maurice Williams checked out at halftime on Monday with a sprained shoulder after colliding violently with well-built Nuggets forward Linas Kleiza.The injuries manifested themselves in 38.5% shooting in a 104–92 loss to Denver on Monday. And when the Bucks line up against the Raptors on Wednesday, they’ll likely be starting four players — Steve Blake, Charlie Bell, Ruben Patterson, and Brian Skinner — they’d slated to be backups when the season began. It’s tough to see the Bucks holding their ground given such attrition, especially with a West Coast trip coming up in a week, so a couple of the Atlantic Division teams could catch or even surpass them by the All-Star break.Thus, the prospects for the no. 2 team in the Titanic Division aren’t looking quite as glum. It’s very possible that whichever team fails to win the division could still find itself in line to get the no. 8 seed, simply by default. Certainly one doesn’t expect Atlanta or Charlotte to make much of a push, and the Heat and the Bucks both have serious problems. If one of those four teams can’t claim a playoff spot, then the Atlantic will have two playoff spots in spite of itself.It’s amazing, really. Both local teams have been unforgivably bad in the first 30 games. Yet the rest of the Leastern conference is so mediocre that we can still ponder the amazing possibility that both clubs will make the postseason. With the great injury equalizer striking with uncommon frequency this year, everyone seems to have a chance.jhollinger@nysun.com

Titanic Division May Actually Send Two to Playoffs

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