Title Contenders Take to the Road

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The New York Sun

Danger lies in wait for teams with title aspirations this weekend, as the top five teams in the AP poll all face road games on Saturday. No. 3 Virginia Tech travels to West Virginia, and no. 4 LSU, which lost on Monday night after the poll came out Sunday, tries to right its season at Mississippi State. Here’s a rundown of the games with the biggest potential for upsets:


NO. 1 USC AT NO. 14 ARIZONA STATE
(3:30 P.M., ABC)


USC, riding a 25-game winning streak, plays its second consecutive difficult road game as it takes on Arizona State in Tempe. The Sun Devils, possessors of an offense that statistically rivals USC’s, would be undefeated if not for a fourth quarter special teams meltdown against LSU three weeks ago. ASU quarterback Sam Keller’s numbers through four games are astounding: 1,813 yards, 19 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a completion rate of 60.1%.


Keller’s primary target is senior Derek Hagan, whose name is likely to be called early in next spring’s NFL draft. Hagan, ASU’s all-time leader in receptions and receiving yards, averages better than 100 yards per game this season and will be a stiff test for USC’s green defense, which had to replace seven starters from last year’s national-championship team.


While Arizona State’s passing attack can certainly hold a candle to the Trojans’, the Sun Devils do not boast the same offensive balance of USC, having struggled to run the ball against the better rush defenses they’ve faced. USC, meanwhile, has a Heisman Trophy winner, Matt Leinart, at quarterback, two NFL-caliber wideouts in Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith, and a one-two punch in the backfield led by do everything Reggie Bush. Bush, who may be Leinart’s stiffest competition for the Heisman this season, presents matchup problems all over the field. His backfield mate, LenDale White, is a power back who is likely to be a high NFL draft choice himself, but must share the limelight in USC’s galaxy of offensive stars.


Though these teams average a combined 106 points per game, USC’s ability to run the ball may limit the offensive shootout many are predicting. Look for USC to rely on the run to sustain long drives that will keep Keller and Hagan on the bench. USC’s defense can be vulnerable, but performs much better when playing with the lead, as last week’s win at Oregon demonstrated. USC fell behind, 13–0 in the second quarter, but shut out a potent Ducks offense the rest of the way in a 45-13 win.


This is the most anticipated game for the Arizona State program since Jake Plummer led the Sun Devils to the Rose Bowl – and nearly the national championship – after the 1996 season. To have a chance, they need to get off to a fast start offensively and avoid settling for field goals as Oregon did last week. If it can pull off the upset, Arizona State will be well positioned to play in a BCS Bowl and perhaps even the championship game at the Rose Bowl if some things break its way.


NO. 2 TEXAS AT MISSOURI
(NOON, ABC REGIONAL)


There might not be a more nervous coach in America this week than Texas’s Mack Brown. On paper, Missouri does not appear to present that much of a challenge for the Longhorns, but the same could be said when these teams met last year in Austin, a game that Texas struggled to win 28-20. Brown also has to be fearful of the timing – once Texas got by Ohio State on September 10, all the talk about the Longhorns has surrounded the Oklahoma game on October 8. After five straight losses to the Sooners, several in humiliating fashion that cost Texas a chance at a BCS bowl, the Longhorn faithful is looking for extreme payback against the suddenly struggling Sooners.


But all that talk of vengeance from fans must wait a week, because if Texas’s players are not focused on Missouri, it will be the Tigers and quarterback Brad Smith that knock them down a peg this year. Smith, a dark-horse Heisman candidate coming into last season, suffered through a miserable year and admitted he let the hype affect his performance. So far this season, he looks like the player of two years ago: a pass-run threat in the mold of Texas’s Vince Young, although surrounded by an inferior supporting cast. Still, he has enough ability to put a scare into the relatively untested Texas defense by himself.


Missouri was able to contain Young last year, but he is playing at a higher level this season. Against Ohio State, Young used his legs to buy time, then hit late-breaking receivers downfield for big plays. He also didn’t let a couple of early interceptions affect his performance as he brought the Longhorns from behind to win. If Texas is focused on this game, and not on Oklahoma, it shouldn’t have too much difficulty with Missouri.


NO. 5 FLORIDA AT NO. 15 ALABAMA
(3:30 P.M., CBS)


Urban Meyer brought with him to Florida a radical offensive philosophy that garners most of the attention, but it is his defense that is most responsible for the Gators’ 4-0 start. That defense will get its toughest test of the year against Alabama, which has been steady, if unspectacular, in getting off to a 4-0 start of its own.


Florida’s defense has dominated all opponents, completely shutting down Tennessee in a 16-7 win two weeks ago, and shutting out Kentucky for the only half that mattered in a 49-28 win last Saturday. Alabama quarterback Brodie Croyle, whose injury wrecked a promising Crimson Tide season in 2004, is back and playing efficient football. Alabama mixes the pass well with a punishing ground game led by Ken Darby.


Quarterback Chris Leak is still working to master the complex option reads that are a big part of Meyer’s offense, and he won’t be the dual-threat quarterback his coach covets until he does. But he has improved his throwing mechanics and is coming off a four-touchdown game against Kentucky in which he threw for 313 yards without getting picked off.


Expect a hard-hitting, stone-age type of game in Tuscaloosa. Florida has the overall edge in talent, but the Gators are untested on the road. This one could go down to the wire.



Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.


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