Bear Bryant once said, “Don’t ever gamble when the odds are in your favor.” Well, I’m not sure he actually uttered those exact words, but that was certainly the way he coached, and USC’s Pete Carroll should have understood the wisdom of that philosophy during his team’s 41-38 loss to Texas in the Rose Bowl on Wednesday night.

When you have Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett, et al. playing behind the nation’s best offensive line, you don’t really have to do much except make an occasional right decision, and Carroll blew it Wednesday night in spectacular fashion.

Let’s recap. USC faced fourth-and-2 on the Texas 45-yard line with 2:13 left to play. White, the Trojan fullback, had been slashing the Texas line the entire second half and at that point had gained 124 yards on the night. If the Trojans chose to go for it, were the odds in their favor? Yes, decidedly. And if they had made those two yards, the game would have been all but over. But the odds of getting those two yards were smaller than Southern Cal’s odds of winning had Carroll shown patience and called for a punt.

What would have happened if Southern Cal had punted in that situation? The worst-case scenario, of course, would have involved the ball being snapped over the punter’s head or the kick being blocked, but if you’re thinking that’s going to happen, you shouldn’t be playing for the national championship. The odds of that are far less likely than of White fumbling the ball away on a fourth-and-2 run. And while we’re on the subject, White had fumbled the ball on the previous play, though USC recovered.

Anyway, USC punter Tom Malone probably would have been kicking from between the Trojans’ 43- and 40-yard lines, and the ball probably would have first hit the ground somewhere around the Texas 15.What’s the worst that could have happened then? Well, assuming the Longhorns wouldn’t have risked a return – especially considering that punt-returner Aaron Ross’s fumble in the first quarter led to USC’s first touchdown – the ball would have bounced toward the end zone. From there, it’s 50-50 that the Trojans would have downed it around the 15-yard line, giving Vince Young at least 30 additional yards to cover in the remaining 2:09.If the punt had gone into the end zone, he would have had to cover 80 yards instead of 55.

Understandably, the post-Rose Bowl press circus wants to focus on Young’s performance, which was the most sensational ever in a bowl game. But the level of cronyism and fluff reporting that passes for commentary these days is appalling. The glib assumption being offered by Carroll’s numerous apologists – and this is verbatim from ESPN’s Craig James, but I’m seeing variations of it everywhere – that “Young could score from anywhere in the field” is pretty muddle-headed. Yes, Vince Young can score from anywhere on the field; the question is how much time it would take him to do it.

If the Southern Cal defense succeeded in nothing else during the game, it had at least taken away Young’s downfield passing game. It’s highly unlikely that with 2:09 left, even deep in his own territory, Texas coach Mack Brown would have abandoned his strategy of taking what the Trojan defense was giving him and gone for the long ball. Almost certainly the Longhorns would have tried to score from 80-85 yards away with exactly the same tactics they used to score from 55 yards out: short passes and Young’s running.

One of the reasons this is so effective for Texas – and the primary reason that the same strategy is tougher to use in pro football – is that in college ball, the clock stops after each first down, giving the offensive team a de facto time out. But 21 of Young’s 30 completions in this game were for less than 10 yards (he averaged 8.9 yards a pop on the whole). If Young had completed only one more pass for less than 10 yards or been stopped on any of his rushing attempts for anything short of a first down, Texas would have lost a critical chunk of time.

Is this any kind of guarantee that a punt would have succeeded in keeping Young and the Longhorns out of the Trojan end zone? Of course not. But it would have greatly increased their chances. As it was, Carroll and Southern Cal, with the odds in their favor, said to Texas, “We’re going to give you a chance to get back in this game if you can stop us on just one play.” Let me rephrase this in terms a Texan can better understand. It would be like one gunfighter saying to another, “I’ve got the drop on you, but I’m not going to shoot until I give you a chance to draw.” On this day, the Trojans challenged the wrong gunfighter.

Mr. Barra is the author, most recently, of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”