Mets fans are a cynical lot. They have their reasons; for every one miracle Mets team, two have been miraculously disappointing. Betrayals and misjudgments by the team’s various ownerships have been legion, from the “Midnight Massacre” that sent Tom Seaver to Cincinnati in 1977 to Kazmir for Zambrano.

Conditioned by experience or not, one can get carried away with doubting. This was epitomized by Howie Rose’s apoplectic fits during Mets post game shows in the late 1980s.

“David Cone just didn’t look right tonight,” a caller might say.

“He shut out the Phillies on two hits,” Rose would groan.

“We need to make a move before the division gets away from us.”

“But the Mets are leading the division by six games,” was the inevitable response, and you could hear something like incipient hypertension in Rose’s voice. It’s no wonder that he soon opted for the more insulated world of play-byplay, where the obtuse opinions are left to Keith Hernandez.

No doubt this year’s leap out of the gates provokes the same sort of panicky response in Mets camp followers. The schedule-makers conferred upon the Mets nine straight contests against the Nationals and Marlins, who demonstrate that a ballclub can be wrecked both intentionally and unintentionally. Though not perfect, the Mets have the advantage over these teams of having been built to compete.

But since an 8-1 start got everyone on the bandwagon, the Mets have been confronted with the Brewers, Braves, and Padres – three teams that have struggled to find their identities, but have more in the way of frontline talent than the Nats and the leftover Fish. Against these clubs, the Mets went only 5-5.

Is it time to panic yet? No, if for no other reason than the Mets are in less disarray than the Phillies and Braves. Philly’s starting rotation has a 6.03 ERA, with Jon Lieber having lost four of four starts and Ryan Madson making a strong argument for a return to the bullpen. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s starting rotation is a work in progress, with zero quality starts to its credit and 10 pitchers getting auditions in the bullpen. The offense is patchwork as well, with Jeff Francoeur serving as an object lesson on why believing one can hit every pitch is a highly self-defeating form of hubris.

Be that as it may, even with injuries to Marcus Giles and Chipper Jones and Francoeur’s willfulness, the Braves have scored a few more runs than the Mets, and offense may yet prove to be the Amazins’ Achilles’ heel. That seems strange to say given the great starts by Carlos Delgado, Xavier Nady, and David Wright. We can even stipulate that Cliff Floyd will dig his way out of an early slump any minute now, giving the Mets one more plus bat in the lineup.

That however, may be that. After getting off to a torrid start, Jose Reyes has gone 4-for-27, dropping his on-base percentage to an unsustainable .277. Roughly the same story can be told of Paul Lo Duca, whose 2-for-15 stretch has dropped his rate stats from .357 AVG/.426 OBA/.452 SLG on April 18 to a more customary .286/.365/.357. Last year, Lo Duca batted .283/.334/.380, so there is good reason to believe that his performance for the season will be in this range, rather than in the .300s.

For any team, giving extensive playing time to a replacement-level player can be the difference between winning and losing. Because the Mets were unwilling or unable to treat Kaz Matsui as a sunk cost and add another infielder during the off-season, the team will flirt with replacement level there all year long. Carlos Beltran’s extended absence has already conferred far too much playing time on confirmed non-hitter Endy Chavez. Chavez is legendarily fast, but as a hitter he’s a triple threat: he can’t hit for average, he has no power, and he doesn’t walk. Should Beltran have to sit for an extended period of time, the Mets will need to call up Lastings Millege from Triple-A Norfolk. Millege has come out on fire, batting .400/.526/.633 and drawing 12 walks in 18 games – impressive for a player who has heretofore been reluctant to control the strike zone. His newfound patience could also help to correct another deficiency of the major league team: its impatience.

Among Reyes’s, LoDuca’s, and Floyd’s slumps, the absence of a second baseman, Beltran’s injury, and the inevitable cooling off of at least two of the three players who are hitting (Nady is the most likely candidate), something’s got to give. The Mets simply won’t be able to sustain their attack without some changes.They rank 15th in the National League with 48 walks drawn, less than half as many as the league-leading Cincinnati Reds.

Now would be the time, because another thing the Mets can’t be sure of is having the league’s best pitching staff for the rest of the season. Tom Glavine has been spectacular, but 1.38 ERAs don’t last. Brian Bannister’s savvy-beyond-his-years approach to pitching has been a pleasure to watch, but his strikeout-walk ratio of 0.87 and low ratio of groundballs to fly balls (0.91) are going to catch up to him if he doesn’t make further adjustments.

As for the great Pedro Martinez, it’s a virtual inevitability that something, someplace, is going to hurt at an inconvenient time. Then there’s Victor Zambrano, who has apparently decided that if he’s going to go down in history as the wrong half of one of the worst trades in team history, he might as well do his part to underscore the point.

The fragility of the pitching makes it all the more urgent that Omar Minaya move aggressively to bolster the offense. The team can make hay in the East now, before the Phillies and Braves sort themselves out, before their own pitching staff suffers injuries or additional, Zambrano-style letdowns. Just one more bat ought to do it.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for www.yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.