ANTIBES, France – Danish climbing guru Michael Rasmussen rode alone for most of the 102 miles of yesterday’s seventh stage of the Tour de France, making molehills of three first-category mountain climbs, and took the overall lead in top form. After crossing five minutes ahead of the yellow jersey, he prompted the inevitable question: Does he believe he can hold on to his lead until Paris?

“I would be stupid not to,” Rasmussen responded.

He does have some reason to believe. Rasmussen is almost three minutes ahead of the nearest threat, and although he has never been very proficient in time trials (of which there are two left, and they are crucial), he is an excellent climber. He has earned the mountain-king’s polka dot jersey more often than any other rider in this year’s Tour, and these uphill stages are only just getting underway.

For Rasmussen, climbing alone has been almost enough in the past. The Dane finished in seventh place in 2005, thanks almost entirely to his effort in the Alps and the Pyrenees. Only two riders competing in this Tour fared better: Kazakhstan’s Alexander Vinokourov finished fifth that year, and American hopeful Levi Leipheimer, sixth. After coming so close to the podium, Rasmussen said he believed he would ride victoriously into Paris one day.

It’s too soon to say whether this is the year, but not too early to confirm the frontrunners for this year’s podium. Many of those tapped as contenders in London finished in a tight breakaway group in front of the yellow jersey on Sunday: Alejandro Valverde, Christophe Moreau, Frank Schleck, and Cadel Evans. They chased the Danish threat uphill in some of the most heart-pumping racing thus far on the Tour and remain the top challengers to the crown.

They were shadowed by Denis Menchov, Leipheimer, and Carlos Sastre, who also have designs on a top-10 finish.

In sum, no big surprises at yesterday’s finish line party: Nearly everyone expected early showed up promptly.

There was one unexpected face, however: that of Iban Mayo. The 30-year-old Spaniard is no stranger to finish-line celebrations — he first made his name in 2003 by winning the fearsome Alpe d’Huez stage in front of a winded Lance Armstrong — but after a series of crashes, drop outs, and subpar performances in recent years, Mayo has slipped from most A-lists.

He set out to change that just before yesterday’s final climb, escaping from Moreau’s pack of catch-up crusaders and pounding the pedals to the uphill finish in Tignes, placing 2 minutes and 47 seconds behind Rasmussen and pole-vaulting to third place overall. Like Rasmussen, Mayo has been tripped up in the past by time trials, but it would be wise to look for him and his countrymen Valverde and Oscar Pereiro (the heir apparent to the 2006 title, pending Floyd Landis’s appeals) to figure prominently in upcoming classifications.

Mayo can take his seat at the contenders’ table at the one vacated by Australia’s Michael Rogers. The captain of T-Mobile crashed while making a breakaway on an early descent with Rasmussen. He got back on his saddle and pedaled for a few minutes in pain before waving to the medical car, and later learned he suffered a fractured collarbone — an excruciating condition that some riders, such as Massachusetts native Tyler Hamilton, have ignored in order to finish, but not this early in the Tour. Rogers was forced to abandon.

Entering the race, the bookmakers’ favorite was Kazakhstan’s Vinokourov, one of the sport’s grittiest competitors and something of a renegade. But after his teammate Andreas Kloden turned in a stellar performance in the opening time trial, everyone wondered whether the German veteran of top-10 finishes might be better suited as captain. The Astana squad was faced with a 50,000 euro question (the amount awarded to the winning team) — that is, who will lead?

Both suffered terrible crashes on Friday, and rode through the mountains heavily bruised and bandaged this weekend. Kloden started the day in sixth place, within striking distance of the yellow jersey, and seemed poised to reduce his three-minute deficit in the mountains. Vinokourov was 44th overall, more than five minutes behind. Nonetheless, the team ordered Kloden to stay back yesterday to escort Vinokourov to the finish. Together, the Astana duo powered their way to within 1 minute and 16 seconds of Moreau’s escape group, and now stand in 12th and 22nd place, respectively.

At 5 minutes and 16 seconds back, Vinokourov still has a small chance to make up for lost time. Whether Kloden will receive similar orders in the future, and whether the 32-year-old chooses to obey them, remains to be seen. The Astana team has a rest day today to work out its strategy before taking to the mountains once again tomorrow. The route from Val d’Isere from Briancon offers the first beyond-category climbs of this ride, two of them: the Col de L’Iseran and the Col du Galibier, both 8,000-plus foot behemoths that threaten to shake up the standings once again, before the Tour takes a gentle, downriver course toward Marseilles.