Think the Pacers will be a piece of cake? Think again.

New Jersey’s playoff match-up against a 41-41 Indiana team won’t be nearly the walk in the park that the Pacers’ mediocre record might lead you to suspect. In fact, of the four first-round series in the Eastern Conference, it’s the one in which the lower-seeded team has the greatest chance at an upset.

You might think I’m crazy to say this considering how well the Nets played coming down the stretch. New Jersey won 15 of 17 games before packing it in during the season’s final week to rest up for the playoffs, and the team has improved noticeably at the defensive end during the second half of the season.

What’s more, the Nets’ biggest weakness will be less of an issue in the postseason. New Jersey’s undoing has been a shamefully unproductive bench that leaves the team depending on only four players – Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and Nenad Krstic – for nearly all the scoring. But in the playoffs, teams play their starters longer and their reserves less. That means more minutes for the Nets’ “big four” and less for the wastrels on the second unit.

That’s a few big advantages in the Nets’ favor, but Indiana brings some things to the table as well. For starters, the Pacers have been shorthanded all season, which is one reason they went from title contenders to the seventh seed in the East. Indiana had to deal with the Ron Artest debacle at the start of the year and then, once it had finally exchanged Artest for Peja Stojakovic, Jermaine O’Neal promptly went out of the lineup for two months.

Three other members of Indiana’s walking wounded also returned recently. Jeff Foster, a good defender and extraordinary offensive rebounder, has missed much of the year with hip and back issues but played 27 solid minutes in the season finale. He should be good to go against the Nets and his length and athleticism could give Krstic fits.

Another big man, Scot Pollard, has battled back problems all year but has been relatively healthy of late and should be able to throw his body around for 15-20 minutes a night off the bench. Finally, sharpshooting forward Austin Croshere has returned from a serious concussion and will be available to stretch the Nets’ defense from long range.

Of course, it wouldn’t be Indiana if somebody wasn’t hurt. Point guard Jamaal Tinsley hasn’t been right since late December and probably will play a limited role, and reserve guard Fred Jones has attempted to play through a severe left thumb injury with little success.

But consider this fact: Even with all the Pacers’ injuries, they managed a better victory margin this year than the Nets. The Pacers outscored their opponents by 1.9 points per game, while New Jersey only beat the opposition by 1.4. It’s not like New Jersey enjoys obvious personnel advantages, either. O’Neal is a beast in the post who will tax Jason Collins’s defensive capabilities to the fullest. Stojakovic is the kind of deadeye shooter who has troubled New Jersey’s defense all season, while shooting guard Stephen Jackson is another capable scorer who will keep Vince Carter honest on defense. And the bench is no comparison – at least five Pacer reserves are better than anyone on Lawrence Frank’s bench.

So how can the Nets get themselves through to the second round? For starters, they need Carter to be the best player on the floor. With a favorable match up against Jackson, he needs to maintain his offensive aggressiveness and not slip into his all too familiar “let’s just settle for this 20-foot fadeaway” mode. The injury to Jones, who normally would see a lot of time off the bench as a defensive ace, further opens the opportunity for Carter to dominate.

The other key is Jefferson, who will have to win his individual battle against Stojakovic. Peja is not renowned for his defense, so Jefferson should make a concerted effort to beat him down the floor in transition. In the half court, Jefferson needs to take him off the dribble with his superior speed and get to the rim. Defensively, Jefferson has to resist the urge to help against other players, because it’s pretty much an automatic three points if Stojakovic is left unguarded.

If the two wingmen take care of business, so should the Nets. Collins and Clifford Robinson have enough savvy to keep O’Neal reasonably contained, and none of the other Pacers are capable of taking over (though Sarunas Jasikevicius can be potent in stretches).With the bench less of a factor and the Nets holding home court, look for them to eke out a tougher-than-expected series win in six low-scoring games.

Now, on to the rest of the East:

(2) Miami vs. (7) Chicago

The Nets’ second-round opponent, should they advance, will be the winner of this series. It should be interesting only in the strictly academic sense of “Will it last four games or five?” Miami’s dynamic duo of Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal seems far too dominant for the overachieving Bulls to handle – especially since the Bulls have little size in the middle to cope with Shaq.

The Pick: Heat 4-2

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Washington

Possibly the best first-round series, this one features two dominant guards in Cleveland’s LeBron James and Washington’s Gilbert Arenas. But the bigger story may be the Cavs’ Larry Hughes, who opted to leave Washington as a free agent last summer and sign with Cleveland. This series essentially serves as a referendum on his decision, but fortunately for Hughes, the Cavs appear to have the upper hand. James is simply the best player in the league right now, and, as with New Jersey, the Cavs’ iffy bench is less of a problem in the postseason because it will play fewer minutes.

The Pick: Cavaliers 4-2

(1) Detroit vs. (8) Milwaukee

The Pistons open the playoffs as the overwhelming favorite to win the Eastern Conference, and they should have a quick jaunt through the opening round against a hopelessly outclassed Milwaukee club. The Bucks are the league’s only sub-.500 playoff team, and it says here there are exactly four games left in their season. Detroit, on the other hand, will be playing until June, so they’ll look forward to having a week off between series after completing the sweep.

The Pick: Pistons 4-0

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.