Twins’ Banged-Up Rotation Tries To Hang On Against A’s

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Some in the Fourth Estate see this as the clash of two diametrically opposed philosophies on the subject of team-building: The “Moneyball” A’s versus the “old school” Twins. Both are caricatures, and the teams actually have more similarities than differences.

Both general managers, Oakland’s Billy Beane and Minnesota’s Terry Ryan, manage their limited budgets effectively, especially when it comes to avoiding expensive free agent mistakes in their bullpens. Both oversee organizations with fine farm systems that have produced a number of homegrown stars. And both the Twins and the A’s entered the season as oft-disappointing underdogs, and ran the table down the stretch, with Oakland going 37–18 and the Twins going 35–22 during the final two months of the season.

Though much of the personnel has changed, this is also a rematch of a 2002 Divisional Series matchup, a series in which the Twins rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win the five-game set. Will Team Beane avenge that loss? Or will the Twins pull off another upset?

The Twins finished eighth in the American League in runs scored, the A’s ninth, so this looks like a tight matchup. However, season totals don’t reflect a significant in-season turnaround by the Twins. On June 10, they were 27–34 and scoring 4.6 runs a game while playing with a weak left side of the infield: veterans Tony Batista at third and Juan Castro at short. Ryan cut Batista and traded Castro, elevating utilityman Nick Punto to everyday play at third and calling up promising prospect Jason Bartlett to take over at short. The Twins won 16 of the 17 left to play in June, and the club raised its offensive pace to 5.1 runs a game for the rest of the season.

It wasn’t a moment too soon — a weak supporting cast would have kept undermining a tremendous homegrown offensive core. Catcher Joe Mauer is one of the best players in the game today and was the first catcher in AL history to win the league’s batting title. However, his legitimate shot at the MVP has been overshadowed by first baseman Justin Morneau’s good fortune to bat fifth in this lineup — starting with former Marlin sparkplug Luis Castillo batting leadoff, the Twins attack pitchers with a solid blend of OBP and speed at the top third of the order. They follow that with their outstanding trio of power hitters — right fielder Michael Cuddyer, Morneau, and center fielder Torii Hunter.

In contrast, the A’s lineup is, for the most part, a series of compromises and well-worn veterans. Jason Kendall leads off with a .373 OBP, setting the table for an offense that lives and dies with the big inning.The problem is that these A’s don’t generate that many big innings any more. That’s in part because star third baseman Eric Chavez (hamstring) and center fielder Mark Kotsay (back) have played hurt much of the season, on top of the club’s losing shortstop Bobby Crosby and right fielder Milton Bradley for much of the season (Crosby will miss the series). In the breach, sophomore Nick Swisher has matured into an offensive star, and the lineup is also extremely dependent on designated hitter Frank Thomas’s return to his former glory, as he’s hit .298/.393/.563 since the All-Star break.

As far as tactics are concerned, Oakland’s Ken Macha rarely runs and bunts even less, but while the A’s tied for fourth in baseball in hitting into double-plays in possible double-play situations (13.8%), it’s the speedier Twins who lead the league with a 16.6% clip. Will Minnesota’s Ron Gardenhire overcompensate? Mauer’s arm behind the plate will deter the A’s from running much, but Gardenhire will be more likely to keep Kendall busy by running with the speedy top and bottom of his order.

The A’s have a slightly stronger rotation overall, but that’s over 162 games, and the Twins hold a major advantage in that they’ll be able to start the best starting pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, in Games 1 and 5. He’s got the electric three-pitch combination that few lefties boast: a great fastball, a perfect changeup, and a high-velocity slider. In his one outing against the A’s, he beat them handily, striking out nine in eight frames, walking none, and allowing only two hits (one a Thomas solo shot). He’s also 12–0 in 17 home starts this season, so you have to almost feel sorry for A’s ace Barry Zito for drawing the toughest assignment in baseball. Zito’s no slouch, posting one of the game’s better road records this year: 10–3 with a 2.97 ERA, but his tendency to work long counts and walk too many will put a ton of pressure on a weak A’s infield. Maybe the A’s catch a break in one of these games, but they’d rather not have to.

The question instead is whether the A’s relative depth will make up the difference in Games 2 through 4. Macha’s decision to start veteran Esteban Loaiza in Game 2 might surprise some, but this is more than just a matter of having postseason experience where Rich Harden and Danny Haren do not. After an ugly 0–3 April and a trip to the DL that kept Loaiza on the shelf until June 8, he’s gone 11–6 with a 4.42 ERA, and he’s logged seven quality starts in his last 10. Harden is bouncing back from injury but could be dominant if he’s fully healthy, while Haren has become a reliable workhorse.

In contrast, the Twins are hoping that rookie Boof Bonser, a badly injured Brad Radke, and the unpredictable Carlos Silva give them winnable ballgames before making way for the league’s best bullpen. Not only does Gardenhire have the advantage of an established trio to finish games in closer Joe Nathan and setup men Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain, he also has situational monsters in the portly Dennys Reyes for lefties and the side-armed scything of right-handers by rookie Pat Neshek. The A’s have gotten tremendous mileage out of their pen as well, but questions about closer Huston Street’s health might cost Oakland dearly.

Ms. Karhl is a regular writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art analysis, visit baseballprospectus.com.


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