Ladies and Gentlemen: the Kentucky Derby.

Three years ago, these 20 horses hit the ground, newborns, literally wet behind the ears. They were born in February, March, April, and May, and it’s short odds that in the tradition of farm life everywhere, they were born in the dark morning hours. Someone stood near, their Wellingtons wet with dew, and watched as the young foal wobbled up on his spindly legs and tested his knobby knees. At that very moment, someone heard the bugle blow the call to the post, and someone tasted mint and wondered: “Is this the one? Is this our Derby horse?”

The little horses passed through their early times at pasture, they were shown their paces, they were coddled. Most of them were marched into an auction ring, hide gleaming, nostrils flaring, a number on their hip, and someone in the crowd was tasting the mint, and said: “There he is, our Derby horse.”

Put into training, the young racehorse seemed to know his way around the track. Someone leaned against the rail in the morning light, and could almost feel the julep glass in his hand.

The preceding narrative is true of thousands of thoroughbreds.

Rick Dutrow said in the Racing Form last weekend of his Big Brown, the favorite: “I feel he’s the best horse in the race — I feel he’s going to win the race.”

That’s good. That’s what you should feel. Someone has felt that way about every horse in the gate. A breeder thought that four years ago as he plotted out the pedigrees, and others have worked for three years at a careful plan that allowed for the fact that the star of the show was a huge, temperamental, fragile beast seemingly bent on self destruction and unable to speak.

Now: They are inside the fishbowl. Around them swirls the crowd: the dancing bottle of Early Times, the seersuckered young men, the high heels, and the hats. They will hear the roar of 150,000 as they step through the post parade. They will cock their ears and wonder at the slurred and jumbled verse of “My Old Kentucky Home.”

The ones that go to the gate on Derby day, even the worst of them, are the survivors. They have raced and won. They have avoided injury. They’ve proven 20 hunches right already — they were, in fact, the Derby Horse. Two more minutes, two turns and we’ll know just how big these horses are.

Trainer and co-owner of Recapturetheglory, Louie Roussel III, said of the Derby: “It’s a very tough race to win. You have to have your horse at a peak — not two days before the race, but on the first Saturday in May. He’s got to be able to run his best race, and you’ve got to bring a horse here that is coming off of these other races and hope that he can improve. Because if he’s coming off of these prep races, even though you’re winning and you’re running good, if he cannot improve for that first Saturday in May it’s no good.”

Compare this to Rick Dutrow’s braggadocio when he said of the favorite, like a man who could benefit from a short class in Greek tragedy: “Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race.”

There is no denying that Big Brown’s victories have been spectacular, but you’ve got to go all the way around the track before they give you the money.

After all, it’s notable that Big Brown’s victories total just three and only two have been this year. Bellamy Road was spectacular, but many thought his five trips to the gate, only two of which were in his 3-year-old year, weren’t enough to get him around the track in front at Churchill. The naysayers were right. Curlin was spectacular, but many thought that his three starts weren’t enough and that he couldn’t win the Derby. They were right. Barbaro had taken the Florida Derby, and many thought that five weeks were too many, too long a layoff for a horse coming into the Derby. They were wrong, resoundingly. Three starts? Two as a 3-yearold? Five weeks off? That’s a lot of knocks, and we haven’t even gotten to the bit about how Big Brown has to wear special shoes so his feet don’t fall apart.

This is the age of iconoclasm, this is the age of surprise, but how do you gamble on that?

It’s worth looking to the traditional wisdom about which horse should win the Derby. It’s just data, not a guarantee, but to ignore the tools we have is foolhardy.

The horse must have started at 2 and had three prep races at 3, at least two of which were around two turns. The horse must have raced within four weeks of the Derby, and finished third or better. Lastly, the horse must have earned at least one triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure at three.

There are four horses who meet these requirements, and the favorite is not one of them. They are Gayego, Bob Black Jack, Z Fortune, and Eight Belles.

Two of the horses in my trifecta are in that mix.

This is how I see the Derby:

Bob Black Jack, Recapturetheglory, and Big Brown are all going to gun for the front. Since they have to cut all the way across the field to get it, expect some slapstick in the approach to the first turn.

Gayego will settle in behind those front runners (if they make it to the front) with Tale of Ekati. The field will follow, probably led by Eight Belles, with Visionaire near the back of the pack. Pyro is adaptable, and will either run with Eight Belles just off the pace, or settle in further back, he’s got two races he can run.

If Big Brown doesn’t make the front and has to handle all the mud in his face, he won’t rally. If he does make the front, he’ll have the novel experience of being pushed through the pace. He won’t like that, either. If Bob Black Jack tries to run away with it (which is what I would do if I was Richard Migliore) the fractions will be exceedingly hot. You’re talking about a horse who holds the track record for six furlongs at Santa Anita.

On the top of the stretch turn, Eight Belles will throw down her signature explosion of speed, and leap up to the front of the race. This will absolutely terrify Big Brown, if he’s still in the race. He’s never been ranged up on, and he will crumple on the turn. Gayego will roll past Big Brown, or whichever front runner Eight Belles put away, and those two will enter the stretch together. Visionaire will have been lolling along, and he’ll suddenly appear as if out of the fog to chase those two down the stretch. He’ll get past all the pacesetters. He won’t catch the leaders but he’ll get the show. Gayego will be second. Eight Belles takes the roses.

mwatman@nysun.com