With the season coming to a close, it’s time to take a look at the Rookie of the Year races, using Baseball Prospectus’s analytical eye. Who should get the hardware?

Coming into the season, the AL Rookie of the Year award was Joe Mauer’s to lose. Mauer, Minnesota’s new catcher and the no. 2 overall pick in 2001 – just ahead of Mark Prior – was handed the starting job to begin the season. But in the year’s second game, he tore the meniscus in his knee while making a sliding catch behind the plate, sidelining him for much of the season after surgery.

Mauer’s injury deprived fans of a great race between the Minnesota backstop and Bobby Crosby, the new Oakland shortstop. Crosby’s performance in the A’s minor league system was impressive enough to convince the franchise to let 2002 MVP Miguel Tejada leave as a high-priced free agent. Crosby gave every indication that he will one day fill Tejada’s shoes, hitting for a .246 average in his rookie campaign with a solid .330 on-base average and .437 slugging percentage.

Though Crosby has had some trouble adjusting to major league pitching – he’s struck out 133 times – he’s also hit 21 home runs and 34 doubles. Crosby’s glove has been even more impressive, saving the A’s an estimated 37 runs over a replacement-level fielder, as measured by Baseball Prospectus’s Fielding Runs Above Replacement.

Crosby’s main competition for the Rookie of the Year award comes from the surprisingly early arrival of Kansas City’s 20-year old pitching prodigy Zack Greinke. Though Greinke hasn’t put up spectacular numbers (8-10, 4.13 ERA), he’s thrown 133 innings at an above-average level.

Greinke has been drawing comparisons to Royal great Bret Saberhagen, showing great control and poise. If he can avoid the injuries that plague so many young hurlers, Greinke has a great shot to become one of baseball’s brightest stars.

The only other player likely to garner much support for the award is newly-instated White Sox closer Shingo Takatsu, though he’ll stoke the debate over the qualification of Japanese league veterans for the award. Sticking to the written rules – which exclude such players as Twins outfielder Lew Ford and Oriole David Newhan for spending too much time on the major league roster in previous seasons – the 35-year old career save leader in Japan is an MLB rookie. Takatsu has pitched well for the White Sox, but his limited innings total mean he hasn’t been as valuable as Crosby or Greinke.

A useful tool for ranking players is Baseball Prospectus’s Value Over Replacement Player metric, which gauges a player’s value in runs, relative to a readily available benchwarmer or Triple-A veteran, such as Neifi Perez or Joe McEwing. Though VORP rankings give Greinke a slight edge over Crosby, we’ll give Crosby the nod for his outstanding defense (VORP measures only offensive value for hitters).

In the National League, you can count the candidates on one hand, even if you’re leading contender Khalil Greene and have to use your broken finger. The Padres shortstop, out since September 14, was given the starting job to begin the season, and put together some impressive numbers, totaling 15 home runs to complement his .273 AVG/.349 OBP/.446 SLG line.

Greene’s main competition for the award is Pirates outfielder Jason Bay, a former Padre who was part of the package of players exchanged for outfielder Brian Giles last season. Bay has slugged 25 home runs while leading Greene in AVG, OBP, and SLG (.291, .367, .574, respectively), but hasn’t seen nearly as much playing time as Greene, accumulating 436 plate appearances to Greene’s 554. The difference in playing time is the main reason for Greene’s slight lead in VORP, but Bay may be able to close the gap with one more week still to play.

The only other NL rookie to accumulate a VORP of over 30 is Padres reliever Akinori Otsuka. At 32, Otsuka is also a veteran of the Japanese league, and was signed sight-unseen by GM Kevin Towers and in the offseason. Otsuka’s very impressive career numbers in the Pacific Rim have carried over to the National League. This season he’s mowed down hitters with a 1.81 ERA, striking out 10.25 batters per nine innings pitched.

While the three players appear very closely matched, this is an issue easily settled by adding defense to the question. As a shortstop, Greene plays a much more demanding defensive position than Bay (a left fielder) or Otsuka, and he’s played it well. Though Greene has racked up 20 errors this season, his outstanding range has allowed him to field many more balls than the average shortstop, saving the Padres dozens of runs.

Upon adding these fielding factors to the batting and pitching totals, Greene has a substantial lead over Bay and Otsuka, clearly distinguishing himself as the NL Rookie of the Year.

If Crosby and Greene win the award, it will be the first time two shortstops have won in the same year in major league history, and the first time two middle infielders have won since Steve Sax and Cal Ripken Jr. in 1982.The two California shortstops have displayed complete games, and greatly deserve the awards that they are likely to receive.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.