Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

For the Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns, 2006 will be remembered as the year that almost was. Both teams began the season with title hopes and ended it with conference finals losses. But the two teams took radically different paths to that point, and that’s why one of the loser’s future prospects are much brighter than the other’s.

In Detroit’s case, all seemed well until mid-May. The Pistons rolled to an NBA best 64-win season, including a spectacular 36-5 jump out of the gate. That prompted a call for all five starters to make the All-Star team – ultimately, four of them did – and made Detroit the overwhelming favorite when the post-season began.

Unfortunately, the Pistons’ regular season was their ceiling – an absolute, best-case scenario of how good the team could be. Detroit enjoyed a near-comical run of good health that saw no key player suffer so much as a hangnail, and that was bound to end at some point. That point came in the second round of the playoffs, when Rasheed Wallace sprained his ankle.Wallace continued to play, but he was a shadow of his former self at both ends and contributed mightily to the offensive malaise that overtook Detroit at that time.

Meanwhile, the Pistons’ good health had a hidden drawback – they seemed out of gas by mid-May.While the starters didn’t play as many minutes as some other players around the league, there may have been a cumulative effect from playing into June for three years in a row. Over that time period,no other player in the league saw as much game action as Detroit’s five starters. The fatigue seemed clear in Game 7 against Miami, as Detroit bricked one open jumper after another and star point guard Chauncey Billups was repeatedly burned by Miami’s Jason Williams.

The question now is whether Detroit can do anything to get back on top. Despite winning 64 games and making four straight conference finals appearances, the Pistons are in a difficult spot. Their system is built on having five very good – but not great – starters, rather than a single superstar. That requires outstanding health, an area where they’ve already been incredibly fortunate, and can be very expensive to maintain for any length of time.

This summer will be the Pistons’ time to pay the piper. Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups both signed several years ago at rates that now are screaming bargains, but each is due much more this summer. Big Ben is an unrestricted free agent, while Billups is up for an extension that would forestall his own free agency in 2007. Detroit is already capped out from having to pay Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince. That greatly reduces the Pistons’ leverage with Ben Wallace, because if he leaves they have no means of signing a comparable player.

Detroit may have to grossly overpay to keep him.Though he won his fourth Defensive Player of the Year trophy this year, Wallace will be 32 next year and appeared to show signs of decline in the postseason. Detroit general manager Joe Dumars’s task will be to figure out if that’s the result of the same grind that slowed the other Pistons or the first phase of a prolonged decline phase.

That doesn’t even begin to touch the other issues facing Detroit. The bench has always been a sore point (even though Detroit’s two key reserves played very well in the postseason) and the Pistons will no doubt look to bolster the second unit so the starters can take it easy in the regular season.

Then there’s first-year coach Flip Saunders, who appeared to be losing control of his ship while the Pistons were running aground against Miami. He’ll have to reassert his dominion over the locker room for Detroit to have a fighting change in the next go-round.

Contrast the Pistons with the Phoenix Suns, who won 10 fewer games and only appeared in the conference finals because of an idiotic seeding system that put the Mavericks and Spurs on the same side of the bracket. Technically the Suns made it a game further than last year, losing the conference finals in six games instead of five, but this team was no match for their 2004-05 edition.

Not that anyone should have expected them to be, considering all the injuries. If Detroit’s season was the best-case scenario, the Suns’ was more like the worst. Phoenix lost star center Amare Stoudemire to knee surgery before the season, a devastating blow that some thought would knock the Suns out of the playoffs entirely. Instead, they stormed to 54 wins and a division title thanks to a massive breakout from forward Boris Diaw and the usual brilliance from twotime MVP Steve Nash and All-Star forward Shawn Marion. Even the loss of center Kurt Thomas for the final two months couldn’t keep them down.

The Suns’ future seems even brighter, if you’ll pardon the pun,thanks to all the talent they developed this season while Stoudemire was out. Diaw was the best example, switching from shooting guard in Atlanta to power forward in Phoenix and picking teams apart with his dribbling and passing from the high post. On the perimeter, guard Leandro Barbosa looks to be a scoring machine in the making with his blazing open court speed and 3-point marksmanship. Both are only 24 next season (as is Stoudemire), giving the Suns a rising three-man nucleus to complement Nash, Marion, and defensive stopper Raja Bell.

The only key player from these playoffs who may not figure into the Suns’ plans is forward Tim Thomas. Despite his outstanding postseason, the Suns would probably be better off sign-andtrading him for another backcourt player. With Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas returning and Marion and Diaw already entrenched, there appears to be little role for the ex-Knick. Plus, the Suns are in a tight spot salarycap wise and must ponder extensions for both Diaw and Barbosa.

In some ways, the Suns and Pistons are in similar straights. Both rely heavily on the starters and little on the bench, both seemed to run out of gas in the conference finals, and both have continually defied critics with repeated successes the past two seasons. But their next few seasons might be very different. Detroit’s elevator got to the top floor two years ago and is already on the way down, while the Suns’ just made a brief stop this year on what should be a continued ascent.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.