Upcoming Draft Suddenly Crucial for Yankees
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There’s no podium featuring a beaming Bud Selig, no young, fresh faces in designer suits holding up a jersey with the number one on it. Most fans don’t even know that Major League Baseball’s annual draft is held over a nation-wide conference call and that none of the 30 teams are in the same room during the two-day event. But that’s what happens when today’s best amateurs aren’t necessarily tomorrow’s marquee stars.
But despite its lack of exposure, the draft, which takes place tomorrow and Wednesday, is monumentally important. Just look at the Yankees. They may have a reputation for buying championships, but a good chunk of their core was home grown through the draft and international signings, including shortstop Derek Jeter – the best first-round pick (1992) in the team’s history – and catcher Jorge Posada, a 24th-round steal in 1990 from a tiny Alabama junior college. Unfortunately, the Jeter pick represents the last time a Yankee first-round selection made an impact in the Bronx.
As good as the Yankees have been, and as much as they have invested in free agency, they seemingly ignored the draft until the last two years, which has hurt their ability to develop useful big league players. More importantly, it has dramatically hampered their ability to make in-season trades; the team’s minor league system has become barren, especially at the upper levels, leaving the front office in a unique position: commonly getting outbid for talent at the July 31 deadline. A look at the Bombers’ first-round picks from 1997-2001 shows how the system went south.
1997: Tyrell Godwin, outfielder. Godwin didn’t sign, choosing instead to go to college. He was a career minor leaguer until he got into three games with the Nationals last year.
1998: Andy Brown,outfielder.18-year-old, 6-foot-7-inch man-child from Indiana had power, but couldn’t hit. Struck out 182 times in 2000 and was released in 2004 with a career average of .228.
1999: David Walling, RHP. Polished college pitcher dominated at lower levels, but had ERA above five after A-ball. Released in 2002.
2000: David Parrish, catcher. Son of eight-time all-star backstop Lance, the kid didn’t have dad’s power, hitting 24 home runs in 489 minor league games before the Yanks gave up on him.
2001: John-Ford Griffin, outfielder.
Griffin hit .450 in his final year at Florida State, but was never able to duplicate that as a pro, and he spent barely a year in the system before moving to Oakland as part of the complicated Jeff Weaver deal in 2002. Now in Triple-A with the Blue Jays and going nowhere fast.
It gets no better after the top pick. The Yankees’ second first-round pick in 1998 was none other than Mark Prior, who decided to go college and never signed. The following year, the team gave $17 million dollars to third-round pick Drew Henson while allowing him to continue playing football, and we all know how that worked out.
In the big leagues, that kind of 0-for-5 is known as the golden sombrero, and this five-year run is the primary reason that Yankee farm system has been ranked among the worst in baseball over the last few years.
The good news is that new scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has things looking up. The former director of player development played a key role in netting righthander Philip Hughes in the first round of the 2004 draft. Hughes has since become the team’s best pitching prospect in more than a decade.
Oppenheimer was installed in his new position shortly thereafter, and the 2005 draft was the Yankees’ best and most interesting draft in some time. Despite a decree issued by George Steinbrenner that the team could not take reliever Craig Hansen in the first round because he did not want to give a major league deal to any pick, the club went with a high-ceiling pick out of high school in shortstop C.J. Henry.
From there, the Yankees decided to treat the draft much as they treat the free-agent market. In the eighth round, they selected Austin Jackson, a second-to-third round talent who fell because he was one of the top point guards in the country and committed to Georgia Tech. Undeterred, Oppenheimer bought him away from hoops ($800,000 can do that) and found what he hopes is the Yankees’ post-Johnny Damon leadoff man.
Here’s what to expect in 2006:
This year’s draft class is not a good one – in fact it’s awful. There are very few top-level talents to be found, and they will all be gone by the time the Yankees select.
The team will pick higher than usual, having snared Philadelphia’s first-round pick (21st overall) as compensation for losing reliever Tom Gordon to free agency, while losing their regular pick (28th overall) to Boston for signing away Damon. Because of the talent level, we could see plenty of first-round deals being made by teams looking to save money, leaving gems like Jackson falling to teams that are willing to spend.
Henry and Jackson were somewhat unique in the Yankee draft last year, because Oppenheimer focused primarily on college talent, with 40 of his 50 picks coming from the college ranks. But the Yankees haven’t taken a college player in the first round since Griffin in 2001, and tend to prefer high-risk/high-reward types with the earliest picks because the franchise is uniquely positioned on an economic level to deal with the potential failure of these types of picks.
But at no. 21, the Yankees are in position to make a practical move, which would suit a team that’s clearly phasing out of its dynasty period. Posada is not getting any younger, and his heir apparent is certainly not presently in the Yankee system. California high school catcher Hank Conger is unquestionably the best backstop in the draft, and chances are good that he’ll be around at 21.
Like Posada, Conger is a switch-hitter with plus power and solid defense. As a high school player, he’ll need three-to-five years of minor league seasoning, by which time Posada will likely be done as a catcher. Conger, a Korean-American whose real first name Hyun, was given his English moniker by his grandfather, who named him after Hank Aaron. Now who wouldn’t want that?
Mr. Goldstein is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art analysis, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.