U.S. Must Avoid Overconfidence as It Marches On

The U.S. basketball team plays Germany this morning — and it couldn’t matter less. Thanks to their 119-82 shellacking of Spain on Saturday, the Americans have already clinched the top seed in Pool B and a quarterfinal date on Wednesday, most likely against Australia.The American side can spend the next two days reminiscing about the embarrassment they handed to the defending World Champions, a team with seven current or former NBA players, one NBA All-Star, and no chance on Saturday.And in doing so, they’ll risk engendering the one thing that can beat them: overconfidence. After blowouts of medal contenders Greece and Spain, it’s obvious that this team is head and shoulders above every other team in the world. The only way they’ll lose is if they beat themselves.But one other thing should be equally obvious: Spain mailed it in. This is important for the American players and coaches to understand, because the team they’ll see in the gold-medal game next Sunday (presumably) is much better than the team that took the floor this past Saturday.If the Spanish coaches were interested in winning this game, they chose an odd way to go about it. Their best players spent large chunks of the game on the bench, their half-court defense was only a rumor, and they actually used full-court pressure against America for much of the second half.I’ll repeat that, for emphasis: Against a team that has run everyone else out of the building but has struggled in the half-court, Spain decided that a full-court press would be the way to go. And at the end of the night, America had 32 fast-break points — and Spain didn’t have any.Nonetheless, there were several positives in this one for the American side, most notably the rediscovery of the team’s shooting touch. The U.S. made 12-of-25 on 3-pointers, and 19-of-24 from the free-throw line, two areas that had been hugely problematic in earlier games.In particular, Carmelo Anthony seems to have awakened. He made 4-of-6 from downtown and had 16 points in 16 minutes, ending a recent shooting slump. Remember, it was Anthony who was America’s big star at the 2006 World Championships: He’s the one American who seems better in international play than in the NBA.And a new threat emerged in the form of Tayshaun Prince. He was thought of as the 12th man entering the tournament, but appears to have passed Michael Redd in the American rotation, entering early in the second quarter against Spain and knocking down perimeter shots while playing solid D. Prince hit 3-of-4 from downtown and scored 10 points in 13 minutes.It helped, too, that the U.S. was much more familiar with the Spanish team, in terms of both personnel and style. Because so many of the team’s players have been in the NBA, the American players knew how to defend against them and what their likes and dislikes were.Additionally, because Spain plays an inside-out game that features post-ups by brothers Pau and Marc Gasol, the U.S. could use an NBA-style defense — they double-teamed the post hard, rotated on the weak side, and cut off the angles for the post player to make a pass. Several of Spain’s 28 turnovers came on hard double-teams that left one of the Gasols with no place to throw the ball.With the U.S. locked into its spot in the quarterfinals, look for coach Mike Krzyzewski to rest his main cogs and go deep into the bench today. Carlos Boozer, this is your big night. Little-used players such as Redd and Prince should also see an extended run, with the idea being to keep the minutes of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Kobe Bryant in the mid-teens.The U.S. isn’t the only team that will be resting players on Monday heading into the quarterfinals. All eight quarterfinal teams are pretty much a lock, with only the China-Greece game having importance in terms of seedings.Greece is all but certain to tank in the game and allow China to draw Argentina in the quarterfinals: European teams are much more brazen about this practice than here in the States, and the Chinese won’t have the inclination to mail it in while playing in front of their enthusiastic home crowd. It is technically possible that Australia could pass Croatia in Pool A as well, but the Croats would have to lose to lowly Iran for that to happen.Surprisingly, two European powers won’t be among the final eight. Germany, even with NBA big men Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Kaman, lost a tight contest to China on Saturday that led to their elimination; while few expected a medal from Germany, most thought they’d at least making it out of pool play. Instead, the Nets’ Yi Jianlian had his best game of the tournament, contributing nine points, 11 boards, and solid D on Nowitzki, as China rallied in front of the home crowd.Even more shocking was Russia’s departure in Pool A. The Russians won the European championship a year ago behind Utah Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko but were eliminated with surprising ease by Australia on Saturday, 95-80. What may have hurt Russia even more was a collar job against Lithuania on Thursday, in which they missed 15 free throws, including several down the stretch of a close game.Lithuania, Argentina, Croatia, and Russia made it out of Pool A, with the U.S, Greece, Spain, and China advancing from Pool B. We’ll take a closer look at the quarterfinals tomorrow when all the pairings are complete.In the meantime, file these two names away in the back of your mind: Carlos Morais and Hamed Ehadadi. Though neither has won a game in Beijing, both played well enough that they could end up in the NBA soon. Morais is an Angolan guard averaging 17 points a game in the tournament, including 24 against the U.S. Ehadadi is a 7-foot-2-inch Iranian center who leads the Olympics in rebounding.And today, they might be the only two guys in the tournament who have something to play for.jhollinger@nysun.com

U.S. Must Avoid Overconfidence as It Marches On

U.S. Must Avoid Overconfidence as It Marches On

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