The Bowl Championship Series can make for strange bedfellows.

How else to explain that fans of Michigan, which remains no. 2 in the BCS standings despite losing to no. 1 Ohio State last Saturday, will spend tomorrow night rooting for their traditional rivals, Notre Dame?

A Notre Dame (10–1) win over no. 3 USC (8 p.m., ABC) could put Michigan in position for a rematch against Ohio State in the January 8 BCS championship game in Glendale, Ariz. Experts who study the BCS formula have suggested that USC (9–1) will all but clinch the spot opposite the Buckeyes if they can beat the Irish and UCLA the following week. Doing so would certainly move the Trojans to the second spot in the computer rankings that make up one-third of the BCS formula, but the wildcard in the equation is the two human polls.

USC is currently ranked second in both of those polls, but with a narrow margin over Michigan. It is possible that if USC beats Notre Dame in a close or ragged game, a few voters may elevate Michigan to no. 2.

The scrutiny stems from Michigan’s 47–21 win over Notre Dame in South Bend in September, a definitive victory that could tilt the voters’ opinions in Michigan’s favor if USC doesn’t look particularly impressive in beating Notre Dame.

That Michigan win is the reason why the Irish have almost no shot at the title game. Even if it beats USC, Notre Dame will finish with the same record as Michigan, and it would be very difficult for even the typically shortsighted voters to rank the Irish over a team that beat it by four touchdowns on its home field.

It remains possible that the two leading SEC teams, Arkansas and Florida, could inject themselves into the titlegame discussion, but only in the case of a USC loss tomorrow.

The BCS implications make Notre Dame-USC the game to watch this weekend, but this rivalry hardly needs the additional storylines. USC has dominated the series recently, winning four straight including three by 31-point margins. But it was last year’s classic in South Bend, in which Notre Dame nearly derailed USC’s lengthy winning streak only to fall in the final seconds on the controversial “Bush Push” that set the stage for this year’s game.

The Trojans no longer have Reggie Bush, or his Heisman Trophy-winning teammate Matt Leinart, but they haven’t exactly fallen off the map. Quarterback John David Booty and a stable of tailbacks have led an offense that, while not as potent as the scoring machine of the last few years, is still a threat to put 30-plus points on the scoreboard against just about anybody.

“Anybody” certainly includes Notre Dame, which has a dynamic offense led by its own Heisman-caliber quarterback, but has been vulnerable to the pass all season. The Irish were first exposed in the Fiesta Bowl last season, when Ohio State gained over 600 yards in a 34–20 win. The secondary’s struggles continued this year against Michigan, which connected on three deep scoring passes. Even teams with limited passing attacks, such as North Carolina and Air Force, found success throwing against the Irish cornerbacks.

USC’s top receivers, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith, form the most dangerous duo Notre Dame has faced this year. It’s hard to imagine Notre Dame stifling the USC offense, so the Irish will have to be opportunistic — force a turnover or two, and try to win in a shootout.

Notre Dame certainly has the weapons to pull it off. If protected, quarterback Brady Quinn is as good as any pocket passer in the nation, and he also has a pair of dangerous receivers in Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight.

No matter what happens Saturday night at the Los Angeles Coliseum, we haven’t seen the last of these teams on the national stage. USC has already clinched the Pac-10 title and can do no worse than a Rose Bowl bid, while the Irish are all but assured of an at-large bid to one of the BCS games. Only a humiliating defeat, perhaps even worse than the 31-point losses from 2002–2004, could keep the Irish and their national fan base from such an invitation.

Another large fan base — Michigan’s — will be watching closely. As Wolverines coach Lloyd Carr said at a Tuesday memorial service for former coach Bo Schembechler: “I can promise you this. The first time Bo will ever cheer for Notre Dame will be this Saturday.”

Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.

SEC Contenders Need To Make Statements

NO. 1O LSU (9-2, 5-2, SEC) AT NO. 6 ARKANSAS (10-1, 7-0)
(Friday, 2:30 p.m., CBS)

Arkansas is the lone unbeaten team in SEC conference play, and the Razorbacks have won 10 straight games since being humiliated by USC in their opener. But to have a chance at the national championship, Arkansas must avoid stumbling against LSU, the team most observers feel is the most talented in the conference.

LSU’s top-ranked defense will have its hands full against the Arkansas rushing tandem of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but the Razorbacks need to get some production from quarterback Casey Dick to pull off the win. Dick replaced Mitch Mustain under center in the middle of the winning streak, but has struggled to boost the passing game.

Win or lose, Arkansas will play Florida for the SEC title next week in Atlanta. But only impressive wins over both the Tigers and Gators, combined with a USC loss, will give Arkansas a chance to move up from sixth in the BCS standings.

NO. 4 FLORIDA (10-1) AT FLORIDA STATE (6-2)
(Saturday, 12 p.m., ABC)

Florida coach Urban Meyer is upset at the talk of a potential Ohio State-Michigan rematch, and even though he misses the irony that the Gators won the 1996 national title by winning a rematch over Florida State, the coach has a point. If Florida wins its last two games, it will have beaten Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas — a résumé that stands with any in college football this season.

Still, it may not be enough. Other than last weeks’ 62–0 rout of Division I-AA Western Carolina, the Gators haven’t looked like world beaters of late, beating Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina by an average of less than five points.

Since Florida won’t get much of a lift from playing the worst Florida State team in recent memory, look for the Gators to earns some “style points” by winning in a rout. It could well happen against the Seminoles’ hapless offense and beat-up defense.