Welcome to the Overachievers’ Bowl, where two teams that would not rank in the AFC’s top 10 are two wins away from the Super Bowl. Atlanta outscored its opponents this season by only three points, which would normally lead to an 8-8 record. St. Louis was outscored by an incredible 79 points during the year, which would normally lead to a 6-10 record.

WHEN ST. LOUIS HAS THE BALL

Atlanta’s defense got a lot of press during the season’s first half, but their improvement over 2003 somewhat dissipated during the final eight games, particularly against the run. In the first half, Atlanta allowed 3.8 yards per carry to opposing runners, a number that includes the 56-10 loss to Kansas City in which the Chiefs ran for 271 yards.

Over the second half, the Falcons allowed 4.3 yards per carry. Although the decline started before defensive tackle Ed Jasper missed the final four games with a wrist injury, his return will certainly help.

There’s no doubt that the Rams can score, and their offensive numbers would be higher if quarterback Marc Bulger hadn’t missed three games. The Falcons’ ability to stop them will be keyed by their pass rush. Atlanta’s defense led the league with 48 sacks, while St. Louis allowed 50, and the Falcons sacked Bulger five times back in Week 2 when they beat the Rams 34-17. The Falcons apply almost all their pressure with just the front four, particularly Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman, and they need to get pressure without bringing a blitz that will leave Rams’ receivers in easy single coverage.

More pressure on Bulger means more third-and-long situations, and that’s where the Falcons have a definitive advantage. The Rams were among the league’s worst offenses on third down with 10 or more yards to go. The Falcons’ defense, meanwhile, is far better on third down than on first or second; on third down, they get better with every additional yard the opposing offense needs. Top draft pick DeAngelo Hall is a particularly talented, though still green, nickel back.

WHEN ATLANTA HAS THE BALL

While everyone was looking the other way, the Rams’ defense went on a bit of a hot streak. Despite a deserved reputation for being soft, the Rams defense has performed at an above-average level in five of its last six games. But the Falcons are a terrible matchup for them.

Against the Seahawks last week, the Rams made things difficult for Shaun Alexander by doing a lot of slanting at the line of scrimmage and keeping their safeties close to the line. They will probably do the same thing against the run-oriented Falcons.

But Atlanta has the perfect weapons to take advantage of the Rams’ inferior linebackers: an All-Pro tight end and a running back who can get open and catch passes.

Against the Rams last week, Seattle threw 11 passes to a receiver covered by a linebacker, gaining seven first downs and missing an eighth because of a dropped pass. The Rams consistently allowed Seahawks tight end Itula Mili to get open, and Atlanta’s Alge Crumpler is a much more dangerous receiver. The Rams also struggle to stop running backs in the passing game, and while the Falcons will miss fullback Justin Griffith, they still have Warrick Dunn.

That other Atlanta weapon, Michael Vick’s feet, could do even more damage. Vick ran for 109 yards on 12 carries against the Rams in Week 2, and he eats slow linebackers for breakfast.

SPECIAL TEAMS

As noted in last week’s wild card preview, poor special teams performance this season has cost the Rams more than twice as many points as any other team in the NFL. This will be a big issue against Atlanta, as the Falcons performed above average this season in every area of special teams except field goal kicking. Every extra yard of field position that kick return specialist Allen Rossum gains for Atlanta means one fewer yard that the Rams have to catch Michael Vick when he makes his inevitable highlight scramble.

OUTLOOK

Not only did the Falcons and Rams both overachieve this year, they were both extremely inconsistent. The Rams mixed victories over playoff teams like the Jets and Seahawks with six defeats by more than two touchdowns.

The Falcons, meanwhile, were the only NFC team to post a winning record against the AFC, but also suffered 27-0 and 56-10 blowouts. If the good Rams are lucky to enough to encounter the bad Falcons, St. Louis will move on; more likely, Atlanta will prevail.

The Pick: Falcons

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith provided extra research for these articles. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.