Wacky Free-Agent Market Owes to Dearth of Talent

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

If we needed any further proof that salary cap space is the NBA’s most overrated commodity, the events of this weekend highlighted it in a giant neon marker. Faced with a market lacking even one player worth a maximum contract, teams with cap space simply adjusted their expectations downward and paid through the nose for lesser talent.

The biggest deal went to Peja Stojakovic, the sharp-shooting swingman who reportedly agreed to a five-year, $64 million deal with the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets. (Players can’t officially sign contracts until July 12). Stojakovic is a nice enough player, and the Hornets certainly could use another shooter after the endless spate of zone defenses opponents threw at them last year. But back in the real world, it’s hard to imagine how this deal makes sense. Stojakovic is 29 and his career has been on a steadily downward trend the past three years. After a career year in 2003-04, his scoring average, shooting percentage, and Player Efficiency Rating (PER,my per-minute rating of a player’s statistical production), have all dropped off precipitously.

Based on the past two seasons, Stojakovic isn’t worth anywhere near the $13 million a season the Hornets will be playing him.Generally, a max-dollar contract like that one is only the preserve of perennial All-Stars, not a complementary player like Peja. So the Hornets’ logic already looks shaky.

But we’ve barely touched on the real problem. Here’s a question for all you rocket scientists out there: If this is what Stojakovic’s progression looks like from ages 26 to 28,what it will be from ages 29 to 33? The Hornets will be richly compensating Peja well into his 30s, even though there’s a good chance he won’t even be a starting-caliber player by that point.

Stojakovic, however, wasn’t the only player to reap a windfall from the freeagent insanity. Ben Wallace found himself the recipient of a four-year, $60 million deal from the Bulls that’s nearly as insane.The reigning Defensive Player of the Year certainly has a few impressive lines on his resume. He’s been healthy and consistent over the past four years as the Pistons won two conference championships and an NBA title. And despite his near-total lack of an offensive game, he has arguably been Detroit’s best play er in that time period.

That doesn’t make the dollar signs any less crazy though. A few recent events have done much to diminish Big Ben’s value. First, there’s the little matter of the playoffs.Against both Cleveland and Miami, Wallace looked to be a much older version of himself than we had been trained to expect, and given that he’s 31, I’m not sure we can just write it off as a bad month. Wallace’s struggles were a big reason Detroit barely held off the Cavs and then went out meekly against Miami after posting the league’s best record in the regular season.

Second, rule changes implemented two years ago have made Wallace’s offensive shortcomings much more glaring. In the postseason in particular, opponents took advantage of his inability to shoot from the outside by hardly bothering to defend him, and used intentional fouls to expose his awful free-throw shooting (27.3% in the postseason).

Finally, Wallace brings the same concerns that Stojakovic does. As a 31- year-old who relies almost exclusively on his athleticism to compete at a position where he’s about three inches shorter than the average, he already seems a bit long in the tooth.What happens in the final year of the deal, as Wallace closes in on 36?

Mind you, it’s not that these players can’t be helpful. The Hornets should get a big boost from Stojakovic’s shooting, especially considering what a dog Desmond Mason was last year, while the additions of Wallace, two high draft picks, and Hornets forward P.J. Brown (if a rumored trade for Tyson Chandler goes through) should help the previously center-less Bulls move into the Eastern Conference’s elite.

But when it comes to free agency, it’s all about managing risk and reward. At $30 or $35 million, Stojakovic is a good gamble.At double that price, he’s a terrible risk. The odds of his returning to his All-Star level are much less than the odds of his continuing to decline while increasingly suffering from the nagging injuries that kept him out of 27 games the past two years. The same goes for Wallace, which is why Detroit wasn’t keen on matching Chicago’s lofty offer.

Since so much money is chasing so few players, the laws of supply and demand are tilted massively in favor the players. For instance, had the Hornets not offered such a ridiculous amount for Stojakovic, I’m sure another team would have stepped up with an offer that was nearly as unreasonable. For further proof, look at some of the other bozos who got rich this weekend. Tim Thomas and Vladimir Radmanovic, for instance, will make a combined $55 million from their deals, a pretty substantial sum for a pair of one-dimensional talents who play up to their potential about one night in six. If it costs that much to get them, what might the price tag be to get somebody who is actually good?

Unfortunately, this is the brave new world of NBA free agency, where few players worth signing ever become free agents in the first place.The league’s current system virtually assures talented young players of staying under contract for roughly a decade – four years on a rookie contract plus a six-year extension. After that, teams still have windows to sign contract extensions and prevent key players from testing free agency. The Mavericks, for instance, will do just that with Dirk Nowitzki this summer to keep him in Dallas another five years. If they succeed, he’ll play 13 NBA seasons before ever tasting free agency.

The best response to all this may be the one the two local teams are pursuing: sitting it out. Neither the Nets’ Rod Thorn nor the Knicks’ Isiah Thomas seem interested in the proceedings this summer, and I can’t say I blame them. Free agency just ain’t what it used to be, because the player pool is so diminished and the dollars required to obtain talent are so absurd. Peja Stojakovic and Ben Wallace are the latest examples of this trend, but they won’t be the last.


The New York Sun

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