The looming potential of Africa has been hovering over the sport of soccer for decades. The talent is there, but Africa – and sub-Saharan Africa in particular – has yet to make its long-awaited impact.

This weekend’s FIFA under-20 world championship, in which Nigeria was beaten 2-1 by Argentina in the final, will go down as yet another near-miss for Africa. Four times since 1989, African countries have been in the youth final – and four times they have lost. It is a disappointing record, one that has betrayed the massive expectations surrounding the African game.

Those hopes received confirmation in 1985 when FIFA inaugurated the under-17 world cup. The tournament quickly turned into a showcase for African skills. Nigeria took the first title and won again in 1993, while Ghana was crowned in 1991 and 1995.

The future of soccer began to look African – never more so than in 1993, when the Nigerian under-17 team beat Ghana 2-1 in the first all-African final in a FIFA world championship at any level. The impending African hegemony seemed to receive confirmation three years later at the Atlanta Olympics, when Nigeria took the gold – the first major soccer title for Africa. Cameroon repeated the African triumph by winning gold at Australia in 2000.

These wins were of questionable value, however. Boys’ soccer is hardly the real thing – and anyway, by 2000 there was considerable suspicion that African nations had been using overage players in the under-17 tournaments. Since 1995, when FIFA began to pay closer attention to player documentation, no African team has won the under-17 title.

Olympic soccer may not come under the youth heading, but it is limited to players under the age of 23, with each team allowed to field three overage players. The rather bizarre age requirements are designed to prevent the tournament becoming a repeat of the World Cup. The world’s top soccer nations find the Olympic event an annoying distraction; it may be difficult to ignore, but they don’t take it too seriously.

What matters most to them – what they take very seriously – is the World Cup. And at that level, the African record is decidedly unimpressive. In 1970, FIFA guaranteed Africa one place in the final tournament and Morocco became the first African nation to participate: It lost all three of its games. Zaire followed in 1974 and was also defeated three times, including an embarrassing 9-0 shellacking by Yugoslavia.

In 1978, Tunisia recorded Africa’s first-ever win in the finals, a 3-1 victory over Mexico. In 1982, FIFA upped African representation to two teams, the beginning of a steady increase that now allots the continent five berths in a 32-team tournament – only Europe is guaranteed more spots. Yet African teams since 1970 have an unimpressive overall record of 15-35-20; for the sub-Saharan African teams, the record is 10-18-14.

It has been a tale of tremendous promise never realized. In the 1982 World Cup, the world got its first glimpse of just how glittering that promise might be. Cameroon’s “Indomitable Lions” were a joy to watch with their smooth-flowing, attacking style and the outstanding athleticism and skill of their players. The Lions tied all three of their games, but failed to advance beyond the first round.

Cameroon returned for the 1990 World Cup and created an immediate sensation by defeating defending-champion Argentina in the opening game. The Lions went on to become the first African team to reach the quarterfinal stage, an achievement that was matched by Senegal in 2002. That is as far as any African team has got in the World Cup. Even Asia has done better, with South Korea a semifinalist in 2002; North America, too, has had a semifinalist – believe it or not, the U.S., during the very first World Cup back in 1930.

But not Africa. Looking for a reason for the lack of African success, an obvious culprit emerges at once: rough play. Writing about Nigeria’s team during the 1994 World Cup, I had this to say: “The soccer that Rasheed Yekini, Daniel Amokachi, Finidi George, Samson Siasia, and their Nigerian team mates play is full of skill and beauty. But it is darkened and undermined by a self-destructive, rough-house element.”

Specifically, reckless and dangerous tackling has cost Africa dear. The splendid Cameroonians of 1990 lost their quarterfinal to England by giving up two late penalty kicks; the 1994 Nigerians went out to Italy in the second round on a penalty-kick goal.

And the Nigerians lost last week’s under-20 final by conceding two penalty-kick goals to Argentina. The coach of the Nigerians was the same Siasia who starred for the 1994 senior team; he commented: “The reason we lost was because of the two penalties we gave away. The Argentine players were not in a good position to score and weren’t dangerous to us, so I don’t know why they were brought down. We have got to have better discipline.”

We don’t yet know whether the Nigerian senior team will get a chance to show improved discipline in next year’s World Cup in Germany. There is fierce competition among 30 African nations for those five final berths. The winners of each of five six-team groups will qualify, and with each country having only two more games to play, nothing is decided.

Togo leads Group 1, but Zambia and Senegal are right behind; Ghana and South Africa are level at the top of Group 2; from Group 3, it will be either Ivory Coast or Cameroon; Group 4 will be either Nigeria or Angola, and Group 5 is between Morocco and Tunisia. It is quite likely that most of the groups will be decided at the last gasp when the final games are played on October 7.Then it will be on to Germany 2006, and another chance for Africa to fulfill its long-dormant potential on the stage of world soccer.