Wake Forest’s season was overshadowed locally by Rutgers, but its run to the ACC championship and the Orange Bowl was even more improbable than the Scarlet Knights’ breakout season. And but for a failed two-point conversion in the third overtime against West Virginia, Rutgers would have been the Demon Deacons’ opponent in an all-time Cinderella matchup in Miami.

Instead, Louisville grabbed the Big East championship and Orange Bowl bid. Its November loss to Rutgers was the only blemish in an 11–1 season that came despite injuries that shelved a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates for all or part of the season.

If Rutgers is ruing its close call, how must Louisville feel? Had the Cardinals held an 18-point lead against the Scarlet Knights, or had they simply not jumped offsides on a missed field goal attempt in the final seconds, they might be preparing to face Ohio State in the Bowl Championship Series title game.

Still, motivation should not be an issue for Louisville. This is an up-and-coming program that is just two years removed from playing in Conference-USA. An opportunity to play in a BCS game is still a novelty. And having overcome the loss of standout tailback Michael Bush for the year and quarterback Brian Brohm for two-plus games, the Cardinals have to be thrilled to have won the Big East. Bush, who broke his leg in the season-opener, is still out, while Brohm, who injured the thumb on his passing hand, returned to finish ninth in the nation in passing efficiency. Brohm is a junior who may opt to enter the NFL Draft, while Bush is fourth-year senior who must decide whether to apply for a medical redshirt or turn pro.

On paper, this game has all the signs of a rout for the Cardinals, whose high-powered offense looks to be too strong for a Wake Forest team that doesn’t excel in any one area. But Wake is much greater than the sum of its parts, and it has answered doubters all season with a ball-hawking defense and an opportunistic offense that avoids major mistakes and does just enough to win.

When a team ranks 98th in total offense and 39th in total defense, yet wins 11 games and its league championship, there is always a hidden factor. In Wake Forest’s case, that factor is turnovers. The Deacons were plus-14 in turnover margin, ranking in the top 10 nationally in both most turnovers forced and fewest given up. To overcome the talent gap against Louisville, Wake must continue to live on the plus side of the turnover ledger. Though Louisville’s pass-happy offense threw just seven interceptions on the season, Wake’s defenders will have to get their hands on a ball or two to give their offense a chance on the short field.

For Wake, the defensive spotlight will be on cornerbacks Alphonso Smith and Riley Swanson. Both are under six-feet — Smith is listed at 5-foot-9 and Swanson at 5-foot-11 — yet must cope with Louisville’s group of tall receivers. Wideout Mario Urrutia is 6-foot-6, as is tight end Gary Barnidge, and the two combined for 82 receptions and 10 touchdowns this season. Leading receiver Harry Douglas is only 5-foot-11, but managed 60 catches and another six scores.

Wake Forest’s secondary struggled against Georgia Tech’s 6-foot-5 Calvin Johnson in the ACC championship game, giving up eight catches for 117 yards, and Brohm is a far superior passer than Georgia Tech’s Reggie Ball.

It’s worth noting that despite failing to slow Johnson, Wake surrendered just six points in the ACC title game. Even if the Deacons surrender passing yardage to Brohm, they can employ a bend-don’t-break strategy and try to make their defensive stands in the red zone. By forcing the Cardinals to go 10 or 12 plays to score, their chance of creating turnovers goes up. If Louisville is able to hit big plays down the field and protect the ball, Wake has almost no chance in this game.

Wake also cannot win this game in a shootout — its offense is simply too limited. Quarterback Riley Skinner, who began the year as the backup, exceeded all expectations this season but can’t be counted upon to outscore the Louisville offense. Wake’s offensive approach is the opposite of Louisville’s big-play attack. The Deacons want to put together long drives, possess the ball, and keep Brohm and company on the bench.

Wake Forest has a decent running game using a committee of backs, and Louisville’s 10th-rated rush defense is a bit of a mirage since they spent most of the year playing with huge leads against teams that were forced to pass. Wake must get enough from its backs to keep Skinner from having to throw on thirdand-long.

Wake’s offense and defense can keep it in the game, but the Deacons may need to dominate on special teams to win. Like all opportunistic teams, Wake was excellent in the kicking game, with Sam Swank hitting 21 of 28 kicks and also handling the punting duties. Louisville has returned both a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown this season, and Wake Forest cannot afford to give up an easy score in the kicking game.

If it sounds like Wake Forest needs a lot of things to go its way in order to hang with Louisville, it does. But that’s the kind of season the Deacons have had under Jim Grobe, who won several national coach of the year honors and could still end up getting courted for the Alabama job after bowl season.

After the way Wake Forest has defied expectations and found ways to win against superior opposition, it’s hard to imagine that Louisville won’t take the Deacons seriously. As much heart and character as Wake has shown this season, the matchups against Louisville’s passing offense aren’t favorable, and talent — and the Cardinals — should prevail here.