Wang and Wright Are Flirting With Disaster

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From the 1930s through the late 1950s, pitchers were so afraid of the home run that they averaged roughly five walks a game. It was a strategy that made little sense given that the pitchers would still give up hits and their fair share of home runs.The walk craze coincided with the near-extinction of the stolen base, so in any given game there were long stretches where there was little to see except the umpire signaling, “Ball one… Ball two… Ball eight…”

From 1947 through 1951, American League pitchers actually walked more batters than they struck out.Since then, walks have been in decline and strikeouts have been on the rise. Last season, pitchers struck out twice as many batters as they walked for the first time in American League history and are on a pace to do the same this year. Pitchers who walk more batters than they strike out in a full season have become a rarity.Just 22 pitchers since 1989 have done so in a season of 150 or more innings, and just about every one of them was shellacked (Ricky Bones of the 1995 Milwaukee Brewers was the exception to the rule).

The Yankees had one of those pitchers, the misguided free agent acquisition Andy Hawkins. In 1990, Hawkins pitched 157.2 innings, striking out 74 and walking 82. He also coughed up 20 home runs, leading to a 5.37 ERA in a league that averaged 3.92.

Before the season is over, Chien-Ming Wang may join Hawkins on the negative strikeout-walk list. To date he’s walked 43 and struck out 52, a 1.21 ratio. But unlike Hawkins, Wang is effective. As a groundball pitcher who allows comparatively few home runs, Wang has succeeded despite his inability to put batters away. He also walks few batters, 2.3 per nine innings (the league average is 3.2), so when he makes mistakes there are few runners on base.

Wang’s ERA ranks 14th in the American League. Still, because of his manner of pitching, he might be the last pitcher one would choose to start in a big game against a team with a strong offense.As the Angels, a team that doesn’t have a strong offense, showed on Sunday, more often than not putting the ball in play can make good things happen. Batters hit about .300 when they put the ball between the lines. They’re hitting .290 against Wang on balls in play (lower before Sunday).

After Sunday’s game, Wang said he had been the victim of bad luck. He wasn’t just offering an alibi. His groundball tendencies and good luck have helped keep him out of trouble. Balls that should have found holes didn’t. On Sunday, they did. Until Wang develops a pitch that will force batters to swing and miss, luck will play more of a part in his outings than it does with any other pitcher in baseball.

Wang isn’t the only Yankees pitcher who is riding the wheel of fortune. Jaret Wright, like Hawkins an ill-considered free agent signing, is gambling heavily and winning. The Yankees signed right-hander Wright after the 2004 season, the only campaign in which he was both healthy and effective for an entire year. That season he struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings and walked 3.4. With injuries, those days have flown. Wright is still averaging 3.4 walks per start, but his strikeouts per nine have dropped to 5.4, well below the league average of 6.4.

Since mid-July, Wright has gone 4–1 and his ERA has been a respectable 4.25. Yet Wright’s pitching has become quite eccentric. He’s averaged just five innings a start and has by some measures been battered. He’s allowed a .323 average on balls in play, suggesting that as much as Wang has had good luck, Wright has had bad luck — fielders just don’t get in front of balls for him the way they do for his teammate.

Worse, he’s walked 4.2 batters per nine innings and struck out just 4.9, bringing him dangerously close to the Hawkins line. In his last start he actually crossed it, walking four and striking out two, but allowed just two hits and one run in 5.1 innings and came away with a win.

In Wright’s case, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. The reason, and this is another factor that doesn’t quite add up, is that Wright has become a fly ball pitcher that doesn’t allow home runs. Just four balls have gone over the fences against Wright this season. Wang, the sinker artist, has allowed 10 in 166.1 innings; Wright has allowed four in 102. He last allowed a round-tripper on June 16.That was 48.1 innings ago.

The old cliché says that when something looks too good to be true it probably is. It’s possible that Wright will keep the opposition in the park for the rest of the season but it’s not likely. Wang’s grounders could continue to burrow their way right into his fielders’ mitts, but it’s just as likely that, like Sunday, there will be days when they bounce over gloves or sneak through the infield. Wang’s style of pitching allows him to dictate that the ball will travel downwards about three times as often as it takes flight, but he still can’t determine the precise direction the ball will take.

They say it’s better to be lucky than good. Wright and Wang show the truth of that statement. The Yankees have to hope they’ll be lucky right through October.They can work on good next year.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for www.yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.


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