The War of Attrition Ends in a Draw – For Now
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The war of attrition is over, and it ended in a draw. Sure, the rules accord the Yankees the AL East title based on winning 10 of 19 meetings with the Red Sox, but that’s only a technicality. Nothing has been settled, and unless the two teams meet again in the second round of the American League playoffs, the draw may last on into eternity. That the two will meet again cannot be taken for granted at this point.
The teams are mirror images of each other. The Red Sox were one game better at home, the Yankees one game better on the road. The Boston offense was a bit more efficient, scoring 5.6 runs per game to New York’s 5.49. New York’s pitching was a hair better than Boston’s, 4.97 runs per game to 5.08. Both teams even have MVP award candidates so close in value that they could beef if one or the other of them took the award home.
The challenge to both will be finding out the truth of Casey Stengel’s nearly infinite formulation, “Good pitching stops good hitting, and vice versa.” The Red Sox had the most productive offense in the league. The Yankees were second. In taking on the White Sox and Angels, respectively, they confront the two best teams at run prevention – that is, pitching – in the league. The White Sox were first, allowing 3.96 runs per game, the Angels second, with 3.98. Conversely, the two teams did not excel at the offensive part of the game. The Angels were about average, scoring 754 runs, or 4.7 per game. The White Sox were distinctly below average, scoring 738 runs, or 4.57 per game (these fractional differences may seem small, but over the course of the long season they add up and thus convey real differences in offensive capabilities).
During the season, the Red Sox won four of seven games against the White Sox, while the Yankees lost six of ten to the Angels. These are, perhaps, not enough games to draw definitive conclusions about how the teams will do in their postseason confrontations. Nor do the differences in their overall records support any claims of superiority. What is interesting is the way in which each team compiled its record.
In going 99-63, the best record in the league, the White Sox had to deal with the difficult Cleveland Indians, a club with a stingy pitching staff and a potent offense. However, they spent far more of their time playing the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Minnesota Twins. These teams ranked 11th, 12th, and 14th out of 14 teams in runs scored. The White Sox had a 2.62 ERA against Detroit, 3.63 against Kansas City, and a 2.75 ERA against the Twins. Against all other teams, the White Sox had an ERA of 3.96. This is not to suggest that Chicago’s vaunted pitching is a fraud, but that it might not be quite so dominant as it appears to be at first glance.
The same can’t be said of the Angels, who earned their pitching props while facing the Rangers and the A’s. The Seattle Mariners (13th in runs scored) were the only below-average offense in the division. Similarly, the Boston and New York pitching staffs had to deal with the potent bats brought to bear by their arch-enemies, not to mention productive attacks from Toronto and Tampa Bay (hitting was not what drove Lou Piniella into exile).
For the Red Sox, the first game of the ALDS provides a quizzical match-up of pitchers who might be too twitchy to do a good job. Boston’s starter, Matt Clement, is either nervous, tired, or hiding an injury; after a terrific start to the season he went 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA in 14 second half starts.
His opposite number will be Jose Contreras. The former Yankees import finally turned into a bonafide big league pitcher in the second half, going 11-2 with a 2.96 ERA in 15 starts. He allowed just seven home runs in 103.1 innings. Yankees fans, however, will remember what Contreras was like when pitching in big spots – nervous, indecisive, alternatively tipping his pitches and throwing meatballs down the middle of the plate that still haven’t landed.
What is clear about the series is that Boston’s starters will have to be good, because if the games come down to a battle of the bullpens, Chicago has a great deal more depth to draw on, including two lefties – Neal Cotts, and Damaso Marte – with whom to confront David Ortiz.
The Yankees will also be afflicted by the Angels’ bullpen. Not only do the Angels have the dominant Francisco Rodriguez (89 strikeouts in 66.1 innings) but set-up man Scot Shields (96 strikeouts in 90.2 innings) and the reliable Brandon Donnelly are also on hand.
The Angels also have four strong starters, although they can be vulnerable: Angels pitchers rely on the defense to get them out of trouble. Only Bartolo Colon and John Lackey were reliable strikeout artists, and even they were not adverse to laying the ball in and letting the fielders handle things. This suggests that the Angels pitchers are vulnerable on days on which batters heed the ancient dictum to hit ’em where they ain’t. The more balls a pitcher allows the opposition to put into play, the more likely this is to happen.
On offense, the Angels can be succinctly summarized as Vlad Guerrero and some guys who range from sort of good to mediocre. At this stage, the former group includes Chone Figgins, Casey Kotchman (.295 AVG/.360 OBA/.527 SLG in the second half), and former Yankee Juan Rivera (.294/.338/.447 after the break). This is a different team than the one that humiliated the Yankees three years ago, not as deep in any department.
As the cliche goes, anything can happen in a short series. In these series, that seems more likely than ever. Pitching that is good but not great and mediocre offenses will confront mediocre pitching and great offenses. Who will win? Well, which way is the wind blowing?
Mr. Goldman is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel, released this year.