NFL fans love to watch two teams with opposing strengths, but opposing weaknesses can be just as interesting. This week, the defensively challenged Patriots visit the offensively challenged Dolphins, while the Packers, who keep losing close games, visit the Falcons, who keep winning them.

PATRIOTS (4-4) AT DOLPHINS (3-5)
(Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Despite being dismantled by Indianapolis on national TV, despite the lack of a winning record, the Patriots still sit atop the AFC East. And there’s good reason to believe their fortunes are about to change.

The combined record of New England’s first eight opponents is 43-22. The combined record of their remaining opponents is 25-40. They still have five division games to put space between themselves and their rivals, and they have just two games against teams with winning records: Kansas City and the quickly fading Tampa Bay Bucs.

While the Patriots’ defense has collapsed this year, quarterback Tom Brady is as strong as ever. And while Miami’s defense is strong, quarterbacks have consistently beaten them through the air. Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average system (DVOA) – which breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – ranks the Dolphins third against the run, but 20th against the pass. Last week, Miami let Atlanta’s Michael Vick put up his only strong passing performance of the year. Historically, Brady has had more problems against Miami than any other team, but the Dolphins secondary is very different now. Cornerback Sam Madison is the only remaining starter from last year.

But while New England’s offensive strength matches its opponent’s weakness, Miami’s offensive strength does not. Veteran quarterback Gus Frerotte makes a lot of mistakes, and the Dolphins rank just 26th in pass offense. Rookie running back Ronnie Brown, however, has been very good over the past few weeks, and Ricky Williams is having some success as well. So the Dolphins will want to run the ball – which is fine with the Patriots, who want their defensive backs to play as little a role as possible. The Patriots rank 19th against the run and a horrific 30th against the pass.

This game marks the first meeting of Patriots head coach Bill Belichick with his longtime protege Nick Saban, which should make for a fascinating chess match. But when it comes to talent, New England still has the edge, and Brady will have a much easier time picking apart Miami’s mediocre secondary than will Frerotte with the Pats.

PACKERS (1-7) AT FALCONS (6-2)
(Sunday, 4:15 p.m.)

On paper, this looks like a complete snoozer, with a top Super Bowl contender hosting a team that has given up on the season. But the DVOA rankings have Atlanta 18th and Green Bay 21st. How can that be?

With Atlanta, the biggest issue is strength of schedule. The Falcons have only played one team with a winning record (Seattle) and lost. They also play every game close – four of their wins have come by a touchdown or less, as have both of their losses. While all the wins count the same in the standings, they don’t when it comes to judging future performance.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is 1-7 despite outscoring their opponents 168-159. Of course, this is no longer true when you remove their only win, a cathartic 52-3 demolition of New Orleans. But the Packers have lost their other seven games by an average of 5.7 points, and in the last two weeks they’ve hung close with two of the AFC’s best teams, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

The oddity is that Atlanta’s close wins mirror Green Bay’s close losses. The Falcons seem unable to put teams away, but their opponents keep falling short on their final drives. Eight yards from a tying touchdown, Miami threw an interception; 29 yards from a tying score, Buffalo failed on fourth-and-1. Philadelphia was driving in the last two minutes, but the Atlanta defense forced four incomplete passes for the win.

Green Bay, on the other hand, keeps coming back late and then stalling out. In Week 3, Brett Favre threw an interception while driving for a game-winning field goal against Tampa Bay. The week, the Packers were losing to Carolina 32-13 in the fourth quarter, scored two touchdowns, got the ball back with two minutes left, and couldn’t get a first down. A month later, they scored against Cincinnati to make it 21-14 with five minutes left, had the ball at midfield with a minute left, and couldn’t score again. And so on.

The problem is that the Packers are the league’s worst offense in late and close situations: second half, game within a touchdown. Favre averages 4.8 yards per pass in these situations, with an interception once every nine passes. The rest of the time, he averages 7.3 yards per pass and throws an interception once every 46 passes.

Enough about the second half – what about the first? No team runs more or better than Atlanta. When the Falcons hand the ball off, they almost always run Warrick Dunn to the right; when left-handed quarterback Michael Vick takes off, he’s almost always running to the left. The Packers allow fewer yards than any other defense on runs to the right, but aren’t very good against runs to the left. That means a heavy dose of those mighty Vick legs.

Atlanta has only two good receivers, tight end Alge Crumpler and wideout Brian Finneran. Green Bay’s defense, however, has a dramatic split: first in the league against no.1 receivers – primarily covered by Al Harris – but near the bottom of the league in covering anyone else. So look for the Pack to shut down Finneran while Crumpler catches pass after pass and the other Atlanta wideouts finally get a chance to be useful.

On the ground, Atlanta has a terrible run defense, but Green Bay won’t challenge it: They rank 31st on the ground and will start running back Samkon Gado, an undrafted rookie who was on the practice squad two weeks ago.

The storyline here seems pretty clear: Atlanta will jump out to a lead, allow Favre to pass until Green Bay makes the game close, then escape with a win. But one of these days, the Packers are going to keep it going instead of folding in the fourth quarter. If that day is Sunday, the unlikely upset will become a reality.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.