Are the Eagles the team that destroyed the rest of the NFC over the season’s first 13 weeks, or the team that foundered over their last four games? Philadelphia fans will say that their teams’ two losses to close out the regular season did not matter, since they rested many starters. But the decline really began with narrow victories over bad Washington and Dallas teams in Weeks 14 and 15.

The deficient Vikings defense presents an easy first test for the post-Terrell Owens Eagles, but they’ll have to outscore the high-flying Minnesota offense.

WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL

The Vikings are dangerous because they can gain yardage in so many ways. While everyone paid attention to Sideshow Randy Moss, Nate Burleson became Daunte Culpepper’s favorite deep threat. Moss’s gimpy ankle makes him seem less effective, but as the Packers learned last week, even a limping Moss can’t be left one-on-one. Yet opponents who cover the Vikings’ wide receivers deep with a zone risk leaving holes for underrated tight end Jermaine Wiggins.

Philadelphia is nonetheless better equipped to handle the Vikings’ passing game than Green Bay was. The Eagles had a number of late-season defensive injuries but, with the exception of outside linebacker Mark Simoneau, those players will all be on the field Sunday.

Though they prefer to pass, the Vikings also have one of the league’s best running games, including scrambles by the elusive Culpepper. Stopping the run is the weakness of Philadelphia’s defense, particularly when the opposing offense runs to the right side. Defensive end Javon Kearse is a dangerous pass rusher, but has a tendency to run past running backs.

Minnesota had the best third-down offense in the league and converted 40% of third downs when they needed 10 or more yards, twice the NFL average. The Eagles’ defense was stalwart on third-and-short, but below average on third-and-long. Expect Culpepper & Co. to make this game interesting with some long drives.

WHEN PHILADELPHIA HAS THE BALL

The biggest question hanging over this game is what the Philadelphia offense will look like without Terrell Owens. No veteran wide receiver in the history of the NFL had more impact when traded to a new team. Despite the fact that Owens was often double covered, McNabb completed 61% of passes to Owens but only 53% of passes to other receivers.

The most dependable receivers in the absence of Owens are probably Philadelphia’s two tight ends, L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis, and Minnesota was the NFL’s second worst team at preventing successful passes to tight ends this season. Most teams use the tight end to get important yardage on third downs, but not the Eagles: Smith and Lewis together were thrown 53 passes on first down, 33 on second, and just 14 on third. With Owens gone, McNabb’s preferred receiver on third down might be running back Brian Westbrook.

Westbrook will probably run the ball more than usual, and that’s a problem for Minnesota. Like the Vikings, the Eagles don’t run very often but they’re effective when they do. Look for the Eagles to mix in a few carries for veteran Dorsey Levens, who gains consistent yardage while starter Westbrook is more of a boom-and-bust runner.

Despite the reputation of right tackle Jon Runyan, the Eagles generally have more success running to the left. Tra Thomas is a solid veteran left tackle, and left guard Artis Hicks has quietly emerged in his first year as a starter. This strength coincides with the weakness of the Minnesota front seven – according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards statistics, Minnesota was the league’s second worst defense preventing runs left or up the middle. Right defensive end Keneche Udeze, in particular, looks like he was never asked to tackle a running back at USC.

Minnesota’s defense probably had its best game of the season against Green Bay, a surprise considering that they were playing without their injured leader, safety Corey Chavous. But a whole season is a better way to judge a defense than one game, and Minnesota’s defense was awful all year, including the league’s worst performance on third downs.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The difference between these kickers is staggering. Year after year, Philly’s David Akers ranks as the league’s best all-around kicker, excelling on both field goals and kickoffs. If that’s not enough of a field-position advantage, the Eagles ranked second in weather-adjusted punt value. The Vikings, meanwhile, have an old field goal kicker who can’t hit from long distance and the worst kickoff coverage in the league.

OUTLOOK

The questions surrounding the Eagles won’t be answered until they take the field, so for now we have to assume they are still the team that dominated the NFC for most of 2004. Even without Owens, those Eagles should score plenty of points on the Vikings while stopping Culpepper enough times to win. This is what happened back in Week 2, when Culpepper passed for 343 yards in a 27-16 loss to Philadelphia.

But if the Week 14-17 Eagles show up, Minnesota will grab the upset.

Pick: Eagles

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith provided extra research for these articles. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.