What Can Brown Do for the Lakers?

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The New York Sun

“Maybe he’s just not that good.”


That’s the conclusion I kept coming back to Monday night as I watched former no. 1 overall pick Kwame Brown struggle through another miserable evening. The Lakers’ power forward shot 3-for-14 from the floor, committed two turnovers, and fouled out as L.A. lost to Memphis 85-73.


This was hardly an unusual performance. Brown is averaging just over six points a game despite starting every game this season for the Lakers. He’s shooting 39.3% from the floor, which is horrendous for someone who shoots from so close to the basket. He’s also averaging six rebounds per game and has blocked only two shots all season. This is despite the fact that, more often than not, the Lakers run the first play of each half for him in a desperate attempt to get him started. Tellingly, journeyman Chris Mihm has surpassed Brown as the Lakers’ top post option.


As I watched Brown struggle, the announcers kept talking about how Phil Jackson faced a huge challenge in getting Brown to achieve his potential. They cited the brutal tongue-lashings Brown endured from Michael Jordan during Brown’s rookie year with the Wizards, how Doug Collins would yo-yo Brown in and out of the lineup, and how all that may have affected Brown’s confidence. They went on to discuss the athletic skills Brown had displayed in workouts in 2000 and how that led him to be the first overall pick, before stating that the Lakers just needed to be patient and eventually those skills would emerge.


But what if his treatment by the Wizards wasn’t the problem? What if the real problem is that Brown isn’t particularly quick, skilled, or athletic? Perhaps Brown’s talents are far more modest than we’ve been led to believe.


For instance, if Brown has so much potential, how did he get consecutive shots in the post rejected on Monday? How did he shoot an airball from three feet or miss a wide open layup under the basket that most NBA big men would have dunked without a second thought?


In fact, looking at Brown’s career trajectory, it’s hard to find any sign whatsoever that he is one of the league’s rising stars. Normally, young big men who are struggling to learn the game but have considerable potential will thrive in at least two areas – blocked shots and rebounds.


Take Darko Milicic, for instance. His results in Detroit have been shockingly bad, but the team remains excited about his future because he’s blocked a shot every 12 minutes during his career, a rate that is among the best in the league. Another example is Chicago’s Tyson Chandler, who hailed from the same draft class as Brown. Even as he struggled in other areas, Chandler averaged a rebound nearly every three minutes, a spectacular ratio that showed off his future as a dominating interior presence.


In contrast, Brown’s numbers in those two areas have been pedestrian. His Rebound Rate – the percentage of available rebounds that he grabs – has been in the bottom half of power forwards his entire career. Last season, it ranked 54th, and he’s never been above 40th. And forget about shot-blocking. Kwame has averaged only about one per 30 minutes in his career, or a little over a third as many as Milicic.


For more evidence, consider another indicator of potential in a big man: dunks. A player like Stromile Swift or, better yet, Charlie Villanueva, who baffles coaches with his inconsistency and defensive lapses, will nonetheless make three plays a week that end up on the SportsCenter highlight reel.


That’s not the case with Kwame. I can’t think of one “wow” jam he’s made in his four-year career – he rarely even dunks, in fact, with only four this season. He did, however, manage to stick the ball into the bottom of the rim on consecutive dunk attempts in a game three years ago, which is the only time I’ve ever seen that happen.


Then there’s the example of Indiana’s Jermaine O’Neal. Commentators often compare Brown with O’Neal because of their similar body types and the trouble both had establishing their careers after turning pro out of high school. One big difference – Jermaine was making plays around the basket from the get-go.


In his first two years as a pro, O’Neal averaged better than a block every 15 minutes and better than a rebound every four. It was just a question of pairing his athleticism with veteran know-how, which O’Neal eventually did as a Pacer.


That’s the missing ingredient in Brown’s case: There’s no athleticism to be paired with experience. This isn’t a Jermaine O’Neal or Kevin Garnett in the making. This is more like Melvin Ely or Jason Collins, except that somehow the NBA cognoscenti utterly misread his ability level.


Unfortunately for the Lakers, they still believed the hype on Brown’s potential despite four years of evidence to the contrary. It’s probably going to end up ruining their season. To acquire Brown, L.A. sent productive small forward Caron Butler and veteran point guard Chucky Atkins to the Wizards, thus depriving themselves of two players who would have helped them a lot more than Brown can this season.


Butler, as I documented Monday, has been among the league’s most effective sixth men, which shouldn’t have surprised the Lakers after his strong finish to the season a year ago. Meanwhile, losing Atkins effectively left the Lakers without a point guard. Although D-League refugee Smush Parker has held down the fort thus far, Atkins still would be valuable if he were around, because Sasha Vujacic has been disastrous as the backup.


Instead, the Lakers have a struggling power forward who would be a generic backup if not for his alleged potential. But at this point, we have to acknowledge the possibility that this supposed potential was merely a figment of our imagination. In short, the problem isn’t that Kwame Brown isn’t maximizing his ability – he just didn’t have that much ability to begin with. And sometimes, it’s that simple.



Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.


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