As we enter the final week of Derby Fever, it’s time to get down to figuring out who the real contenders will be at Churchill Downs on May 7. It’s always hard to predict what kind of race we’ll see when 20 of the top 3-year-olds in the country run for the roses, and this year, when the top spot on the list of Derby favorites has seemingly changed every week, that’s especially difficult.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re completely in the dark. A glance at the last 10 Derby winners is instructive: Each one had run in at least three prep races leading up to May, and all but two recorded consistently fast speed figures leading up to the Derby. When this year’s unpredictable crop of Derby hopefuls is stacked up against those historical precedents, the picture suddenly becomes much clearer.

In 1995, Derby winner Thunder Gulch had run three prep races, earning triple-digit Beyer figures in all of them; he flopped on the tight turns at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes and came in fourth, but still chalked up a 101 Beyer fig. Grindstone, the 1996 winner, started his prep season in a February 16 Allowance at Santa Anita, then won the Louisiana Derby and placed in the Arkansas Derby, recording triple digit Beyers in both. Silver Charm, in 1997, was on the board in three prep races and had triple-digit Beyers in all.

Real Quiet began 1998 with a wretched run in the January 18 Golden Gate Derby, but came back to place in both the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby, triple-digit Beyers both times. Charismatic raced seven times (!) going into the Derby; his Beyers were not as good as his predecessors’, but he hit 108 to win the Lexington Stakes, and had run in the 90s prior to that.

The next year, things were back to normal with Fusaichi Pegasus, who won all four of his starts leading up to the Derby; only in the first, a 6-furlong Maiden Special Weight, did he run a Beyer under 100. The 2001 winner, Monarchos, ran four races, had three Beyers over 100, and three victories.

In 2002, War Emblem was another exception as far as Beyer Figs are concerned. He had four preps and was markedly improving – still, it was the waltz-like pace he set in Kentucky that allowed him to sneak away with the roses. Funny Cide hadn’t won as a 3-year-old before the Derby, running only one triple-digit, although his Louisiana Derby was a 99.Last year, Smarty Jones came into the Derby having run four times, including a 107 in the Arkansas Derby and a 108 in the Rebel.

Of these 10 horses, then, only three hadn’t run at least two triple-digit Beyer Figs leading up to the Derby. Of those three, Funny Cide benefited from a very lucky trip and War Emblem got loose on a false pace.

So how does this apply to this year’s top 3-year-olds? One is tempted to say that they’re more lightly raced than usual, but that’s not exactly the case. Of the horses expected to go to the gate, 11 of them have four or more starts this year; last year, only eight horses in the Derby field had that much experience.

Yet only two horses fit the pattern of the last 10 winners. Afleet Alex is the first – if you disregard his horrible March 19 Rebel Stakes, when he ran with a lung infection. Experience and consistently fast races are the thread that ties together the past winners, and Afleet Alex has both. Last out, he took the Arkansas Derby decisively, earning a Beyer of 108, and in his seasonal debut in the Mountain Valley Stakes, he won with a 106.The horse also has an attractive style: He comes from the field and closes, and that’s a good way to win classic distance races like the Derby.

High Fly is the other horse qualified by the statistical pattern set up above. He debuted in January, recorded a 100 in winning the Aventura at Gulfstream, and last out, he took the Florida Derby with Jerry Bailey driving him to score a 102. But his start on April 2 puts him away from the gate for a long time before May 7. What’s more, trainer Nick Zito, with four other horses to worry about, can’t be spending all that much attention on him.

Most of the rest of the horses going, while interesting, just don’t seem to stack up. Bandini, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez – a duo that seems to win everything these days – looks good coming out of the Blue Grass. Keeneland and Churchill are very different tracks, though, and the last Blue Grass Stakes winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Strike The Gold in 1991.

High Limit has little experience, and he didn’t like seeing other horses in front of him in the Blue Grass. Three-year-olds learn something everyday, and he could show up at Churchill with newfound poise, but for my money, he’ll do just what he did in the Blue Grass – run up near the pace and stick in whatever spot he starts in.

Noble Causeway could take a race perfectly set up for his closing style, but that’s a long shot. Sun King has showed us the race he wants to run, and it’s not the kind of race that wins the Derby. His disappointing fourth in the Blue Grass was markedly similar to his underwhelming victory in the March 19 Tampa Bay Derby.

Greeley’s Galaxy is certainly improving with each race, but he doesn’t quite seem worth the $200,000 supplement put up by his owner to send him to Churchill. Wilko? Well, he surprised at last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by taking advantage of a mess of inexperienced colts burning each other out, and it could happen again. Flower Alley, too, could find himself an improving horse with gas in the tank should such a scenario occur. But this is a gambling game, and that’s a lot of contingency.

Then there’s the freak. Bellamy Road started his season late – he ran away with a March 12 Allowance race at Gulfstream – before his record-breaking run April 9 at the Wood Memorial. Historically, that’s not the kind of prep season that wins the Derby. And historically, horses don’t improve their Beyer figures by 24 points in one race. Then again, 3-year-olds do not run races like Bellamy ran in the Wood. He set a blazing pace, and his average speed for each furlong was under 12 seconds. That’s serious. If he can run back to that form, there will be no competition for him in Kentucky.

The pace next Saturday will be incredibly strong – we will not see a repeat of the War Emblem scenario. There is a strong faction of early speed, and a second faction of horses who stalk just off the pace to keep the front-runners honest. All that action up front also makes it unlikely that any one horse will get a trip as smooth as Funny Cide’s.

Rules are made to be broken, of course. “New York-bred horses don’t win the Kentucky Derby,” for instance, was chucked out the window when Funny Cide got clear and bolted for the wire. I would never bet my money on history staying the course. But the lines of history that are written on our past-performance sheets – and those of recent Derby winners – are worth betting on.

The two horses here who cannot be ignored are the most disparate: Afleet Alex because he has the profile of a Derby winner, and Bellamy Road because he has the profile of something very, very special.