General Norman Schwarzkopf once wrote that a battle plan is good only until enemy contact is made. After that, he said, your ability to execute depends on how good your assessment of the enemy was. If your intelligence and planning was good, you won’t get taken by surprise by the enemy’s movements. If your assessment was bad, well, see Little Bighorn for further reference.

Schwarzkopf didn’t include a poor self-assessment in his list of reasons why a battle plan might go awry, but it seems obvious, especially given recent experience, that if one tends to overstate his own strengths and capabilities, his anticipated happy result will probably be a long time in coming. So too with baseball teams, managers, and general managers. It is almost always dangerous to extrapolate from one game, but in honor of Opening Day, let us venture boldly forth in the spirit of the foolhardy overconfidence that grips every winner and the unnecessary panic that takes every loser.

TAMPA BAY 6, ORIOLES 2

The knee-jerk reaction: Everything that was said about these two teams in the off-season was correct. The Rays are much improved, with quality pitching that will carry them to at least a .500 record. The Orioles will not win a game ever, or at least not many more than 62.

The real takeaway: The improved Rays defense turned three double plays in the game, something that they probably wouldn’t have been capable of at this time last year. Even if the pitching hasn’t actually improved as much as projected, better gloves are going to make it more efficient anyway. The Rays can also take heart from right fielder Eric Hinske hitting a home run in the game; subs such as Hinske allow the Rays not to trade off part of their future for a Rocco Baldelli replacement. As for the O’s, the knee-jerk reaction is actually right.

DODGERS 5, GIANTS 0

The knee-jerk reaction: The Giants are even worse than the Orioles. They won’t hit at all, and Barry Zito is a mess. Meanwhile, a calm, rested, and ready Joe Torre has this division in the palm of his hand.

The real takeaway: Torre isn’t going to get shutout pitching every day, but his mix of young and old players is the deepest in the game. Even better, Juan Pierre didn’t get a sniff in this contest. That said, Andre Ethier’s 0-for-4 with six left on base will tempt Torre to start backsliding as soon as their second game. The Giants not only have a lock on last place, they’re looking to put up curtains.

METS 7, MARLINS 2

The knee-jerk reaction: Major League Baseball sure programmed some mismatches for opening day. Santana is an instant Cy Young, David Wright an easy MVP, and these guys are so good that it doesn’t matter if everyone else gets hurt. The Marlins aren’t the worst team in the National League, but only because the Giants have perfected the concept of “worst.”

The real takeaway: Marlins pitching is miserable; if Mark Hendrickson is the best you can offer, when the rest of the rotation pitches, the opposition is going to be scoring touchdowns, not runs. Their lineup has a couple of quality hitters, but this wasn’t a real test of the 2008 Mets.

DIAMONDBACKS 4, REDS 2

The knee-jerk reaction: Mixed result: You expect the ‘Backs to win when Brandon Webb pitches, but if they’re really going to hang with the Dodgers, they need laggards from last year like shortstop Stephen Drew and outfielder Justin Upton to take a big step forward, and they went a combined 0-for-8. On the Reds side, hometown fans got to see Dusty Baker demonstrate a slippery grasp on reality when he led off with Corey Patterson, possessor of a career .298 on-base percentage. Top hitters Junior Griffey, Brandon Phillips, and Adam Dunn didn’t strand a single runner in the game, but only because there were so few runners available for them to strand.

The real takeaway: With their rotation, the Diamondbacks could get pitching this good on many nights, and their offensive deficiencies, should they prove to be real, won’t matter all that much. This is especially true if Randy Johnson can give them 15 to 20 good starts. The Reds are going to have a very long year, with quite a bit of talent but leadership that lacks the ability to use it properly.

BREWERS 4, CUBS 3

The knee-jerk reaction: Cubs face disaster as Carlos Zambrano gets hurt, new closer Kerry Wood implodes, while the Brewers, who gambled limited resources on Eric Gagne, need to pray for a comeback from Rollie Fingers.

The real takeaway: Wood looked very good in spring training and should be able to get past this. Gagne, however, was bad for the Red Sox last year, bad in spring training, and bad today. It just might be that the Brewers are seeing the development of a trend.

YANKEES 0, BLUE JAYS 0 (PPD)

The knee-jerk reaction: Not even the Steinbrenners control the weather.

The real takeaway: Yeah, they do. They’re just saving that card for a bigger occasion. Bugs, on the other hand, remain a problem.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.