When Blockbuster Dust Settles, Miami Looks Brilliant

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Talk about a blockbuster deal.


No sooner had the ink dried on the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement than the Miami Heat pulled the trigger on a deal that instantly stakes the Heat as the favorite to win the East. As part of a five-team, 13-player swap, the Heat sent forward Eddie Jones to Memphis on Tuesday night for point guard Jason Williams and forward James Posey, while also acquiring forward Antoine Walker from Boston.


And what a deal it was. Consider this: The Heat gave up one player in exchange for three players who are better and cost less. Granted, Jones was a contributor to the Heat’s success last season, but his contribution has been overstated. Jones’s offensive productivity has been heading steadily downhill the past few seasons, and that trend likely won’t change considering he’ll turn 34 in October. Plus, the two years left on his maximum contract seemed to make him untradeable.


Nevertheless, Miami was able to parlay this killer contract into three valuable players. Take Williams, for instance. He has one of the highest assist rates in basketball and doesn’t turn the ball over. His only shortcomings are that he shoots too many 3-pointers and doesn’t play enough defense. Likewise, although Posey struggled last year because of a foot injury, he is a premier defensive stopper when he’s at full strength. Lastly, even though Walker has a penchant for 3-pointers like Williams, he’s a fantastic ball handler who can fill both forward spots.


Of course, there were a few assorted ancillary costs. As part of the deal, the Heat had to send forward Qyntel Woods, two second-round draft picks, and the rights to Spanish big man Albert Miralles to Boston. Additionally, forward Rasual Butler ended up in New Orleans. In return, Miami received Memphis benchwarmer Andre Emmett. But those were minor considerations relative to the main deal.


If we look at the players’ projected performances for this season in the ac companying chart, we can see that Jones and Butler are worse than the three players Miami acquired. That also was the case last season with the exception of Posey, who battled his injury all year and was never at 100%.


Some of you may be thinking that Walker and Williams will detract from the brilliance of Shaq and Dwyane Wade, but don’t count on it. The truth is that the Heat were in need of secondary scorers to balance out the offense, especially when Shaq or Wade hit the bench. This was made abundantly clear when Wade injured his ribs in the conference finals and the other Heaters couldn’t muster enough offense to win one of the final two games. With Shaq turning 33, the situation doesn’t figure to change soon. Walker and Williams might drive coach Stan Van Gundy insane, but picking them up was a no-brainer. The fact they get a stopper like Posey out of the bargain only adds to the victory.


Are there misgivings about this deal? Only one. To pull it off, the Heat had to give Walker a six-year, $53 million contract, which is completely outrageous in view of his recent accomplishments. That deal may be a burr in Miami’s saddle down the road, especially since it’s extremely unlikely that Walker will be a starting-caliber player six years from now. However, Miami’s focus is on the present, and this deal stamps it as the leading contender in the East.


As for the other four teams in the deal, Memphis seemed to lose the most. The Grizzlies traded Williams and Posey and got back a lesser player in Jones. They made the deal to lessen their future salary cap obligations, but in the process they got an inferior player and further depleted what was once a fantastic bench. Two other teams – New Orleans and Utah – were bit players, but Boston came away a winner. The Celtics signed-and-traded Walker as part of the deal, and in return got a trade exception for roughly $5 million that they can use next summer.


Miami wasn’t the only team dealing as the gate went up on the off-season. Phoenix and Atlanta were putting the finishing touches on a sign-and-trade deal that would send Joe Johnson to the Hawks, one that is shaping up as a lose lose for both teams. For Phoenix, they suffer the loss of one of the key players on last season’s 62-win team, and in the short-term get nothing in return. The compensation from Atlanta is two no. 1 draft picks, offensively inept swingman Boris Diaw, and a trade exception worth several million dollars.


That’s still better than the alternative – re-signing Johnson at an exorbitant price. The five-year, $70 million deal he’s getting from the Hawks is roughly twice what he’s worth, and it’s sad to think the Hawks are throwing in extra compensation for the right to do it. Atlanta did make one smart move, however, signing Milwaukee center Zaza Pachulia to an offer sheet for four years and $16 million.


Additionally, several teams completed deals that had been in the works for weeks. They included the Knicks’ signing of Jerome James (ugh), but not the Nets’ sign-and-trade with Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Abdur-Rahim’s physical turned up some unspecified problems yesterday that the Nets are investigating further.


Unfortunately, it’s hard to see what recourse New Jersey has at this point. After all, they can’t demand more from Portland – the Blazers would just as soon let Abdur-Rahim walk as a free agent than accept anything less from the Nets in the sign-and-trade. Abdur-Rahim had elbow surgery last season, so one would surmise that’s the problematic body part, but unless his arm is falling off, it’s probably in the Nets’ interests to go ahead with the trade. Otherwise, even if they obtain Abdur-Rahim, it will cost them their midlevel exception.


Overall then, it was a disappointing day for the Nets. While their effort to regain the Eastern Conference crown took a step back with the hiccup on the Abdur-Rahim trade, one of the Nets’ toughest competitors for Eastern supremacy took a major step forward. Come June, the developments of the first week in August could be the telling factor in the conference title chase.



Mr. Hollinger is the author of the “2005–06 Pro Basketball Forecast.”


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