For a team that had just lost home court advantage in what figures to be a tightly contested playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs seemed rather blase after their 93-87 Game 1 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night.

“We had some great looks,” All-Star forward Tim Duncan said after missing all seven of his fourth-quarter shots. “There were a lot of shots around the basket that I should have made.”

Indeed. The Nuggets turned a five point fourth-quarter deficit into a nine-point lead while the Spurs went into a shooting slump befitting John Starks. San Antonio shot 4-for-21 in the period, and all 17 misses came consecutively with the game on the line. Yet both Duncan and coach Greg Popovich shrugged off the loss as casually as they might a preseason game, explaining simply that the shots didn’t fall.

They’re right. Shooting is the most fickle element of basketball. Studies have shown that it’s the most volatile aspect of a player’s game, prone to large fluctuations from year to year. Anyone who has played basketball casually for a year or two can probably recall games where they couldn’t miss, along with games where they couldn’t make an uncontested layup.

The Spurs had a fourth quarter from the latter collection. Most of Duncan’s late misses came from close range. Manu Ginobili bricked two open 3-point attempts and one shot in the paint. Glenn Robinson wasted an open jump shot. Tony Parker missed a teardrop from the lane. It simply turned into one of those kinds of nights. Yet in most other regards, the Spurs accomplished what they wanted, and look poised to regain the upper hand in this most compelling of first round matchups.

To begin with, San Antonio’s defensive effort was stellar. Denver’s high-octane offense has averaged 107.5 points per game and 100 possessions per game after coach George Karl took over on January 28,yet the Spurs vaunted transition defense got down the floor quickly and held the Nuggets to 93 points on 93 possessions Sunday. They lmited Denver, which shot 47.9% after the All-Star break, to 41.5%.

The Spurs’ perimeter defense also took the 3-point shot out of the Nuggets’ arsenal; Denver averaged 12 a game under Karl, but took only six on Sunday. While the Spurs were conducting their bricklaying clinic, the Nuggets managed to can only five of 17 fourth-quarter shots and turned the ball over four times, a stark contrast to their usual offensive efficiency.

Through three quarters, the Spurs were shooting 50%, and it’s quite likely that if San Antonio had hit even 10 of their 21 fourth-quarter shots, they would be up a game in the series. Still, the Spurs will have adjustments to make. Andre Miller torched them for 31 points, and neither Parker nor Ginobili could slow him down. The Spurs will need to consider putting ace defender Bruce Bowen on him, though this will leave Ginboli in a mismatch against Carmelo Anthony.

Popovich will need more to make strategic adjustments to boost production from his bench, which performed miserably Sunday. This year’s Spurs are much improved offensively – in 2003-04, they ranked 14th in the NBA with 99.8 points per 100 possessions; this year they ranked eighth at 104.9. Much of that change owes to the Spurs’ excellent reserves, but Brent Barry (7.4 ppg in the regular season) took a goose egg in 19 minutes of action, and Robinson (10 ppg) whimpered to the tune of two points in six minutes. Popovich will need to find a way to get these players open looks within the second unit’s offense.

Lastly, the Spurs will need to establish their inside game earlier to draw Denver double teams and free up Parker and Ginobili on the perimeter. It’s easy to attribute Duncan’s struggles (7-22 shooting) to his bad ankle, but Parker’s ankles are fine and he shot 6-of-17 against Miller and reserve dynamo Early Boykins.

When Karl reviews the game film, he’ll need to focus on how to push the tempo even more aggressively, as mismatches often occur in both fast breaks and early offense. The Spurs’ top ranked defense made his front line look pretty ordinary in the half court – Kenyon Martin shot 5-of-14, Anthony managed only 6-of-14, and Marcus Camby was 3-of-9. However, with Duncan still less than 100%, the best strategy may be to outrun him.

Without an inside game demanding the Spurs’ attention, the Nuggets will be hard-pressed to create open looks from behind the arc, especially if Miller comes back to earth. Defensively, Karl will need to assign a body, be it K-Mart or Nene, to Nazr Mohammed. The former Knick had a career night with 15 points and 15 boards, running so freely through the Nugget defense that you’d think they’d planned for the less agile but injured Rasho Nesterovic to play the opposing pivot.

This matchup is really a second round series taking place in the first round; the seventh-seeded Nuggets went 32-8under Karl and were the NBA’s best team after the break. Neither the Sonics nor the Kings figure to match up well against the winner of this series, so the Spurs and Nuggets may well be playing for entry into the Conference Finals. The physical intensity of Game 1 suggested that both teams know it – now it’s time for their shots to start falling.