After a first weekend full of upsets, the women’s NCAA basketball tournament moves into Sweet 16 with everything seemingly up for grabs. All four no. 1 seeds, Duke University, the University of North Carolina, the University of Tennessee, and the University of Connecticut, advanced, but three of the four no. 2’s are already gone, including the defending champion, the University of Maryland, the grittiest team in last year’s tournament, which was shown the door on Tuesday by a speedy, opportunistic team from the University of Mississippi.

Overall, the mid-majors provided some of the drama as Marist, a no. 13 seed in the group of death otherwise known as the Dayton Region, shocked two opponents, while Bowling Green State University and George Washington also advanced beyond their seeding levels. In addition to the midmajors, big noise was heard from the major-mids, the midlevel teams from BCS conferences. In addition to the Rebel yell, Florida State University is making a surprise showing at this level while Louisville and West Virginia nearly pulled off major upsets. With the regional semifinals on Saturday and Sunday and the finals on Monday and Tuesday, the only sure thing is that in this tournament, there are no sure things. Let’s look at the matchups region by region:

GREENSBORO

Duke remains the surest bet in this tournament. The Blue Devils are the no. 1 seed overall in the tournament and are playing in their home state. However, they can’t overlook their Saturday afternoon game with Rutgers. Duke routed the Scarlet Knights early in the season, but Rutgers has gelled — only losing once since mid-January. Their inside/outside attack of Kia Vaughn and Epiphany Price will test Duke’s defense and depth, but the Blue Devils’ point guard has risen to every occasion this season and should lead her team to victory. In the other matchup, no. 3 seed Arizona State has rallied twice from large second-half deficits to survive; their luck should run out against a talented and underseeded no. 7 Bowling Green team that spreads the defense with their outside shooting, then attacks the middle. That would set up another rematch from early in the season in the regional final, but with the same result, Duke winning and advancing.

FRESNO

Early in the second half on Tuesday night in Hartford, Conn., it looked like UConn might join the litany of upset victims. The University of Wisconsin/Green Bay held a rapidly increasing lead, and the Huskies seemed helpless to defend their sets. Then UConn coach Geno Auriemma decided that the best defense was a relentless offense. The Huskies roared back behind an offensive gameplan that seemingly decided no shot should be taken from outside the paint. For the next 10 minutes, they furiously attacked the rim and their cheesehead opponents couldn’t keep up on either end of the floor. Saturday evening in Fresno, UConn will have neither geography or athleticism in its favor against North Carolina State University. The Wolfpack are one of the hottest teams in the tournament, and their ability to match up big and small with UConn should create this weekend’s best game. In the other game, most observers felt that the off-court drama involving their former coach, Patsy Chapman, would lead to an early upset for Louisiana State University. Instead, center Sylvia Fowles has led LSU to two victories. Now, they face a red-hot Florida State. It will be a classic big-versus-small confrontation. Both semifinal games could go either way, but I’ll take the ACC teams on Saturday with N.C. State advancing on Monday.

DALLAS

UNC likes the game played fast and faster, but Notre Dame slowed the tempo and still lost 60–51 Tuesday night. Look for George Washington to employ the same strategy; UNC, lethal on the break, is vulnerable in the half court but should have enough to beat the Atlantic 10 powerhouse. Purdue, the only no. 2 seed left in the tourney, should meet their doom against no. 3 Georgia in the other Dallas game. The Lady Bulldogs have shined behind stellar backcourt play and the inside work of Tasha Humphrey. This would set up an intriguing regional final. UNC is prone to lapses in concentration and can get sloppy with the ball, which should open the door for a Georgia upset, especially if the Bulldogs can get pressure on Tar Heel point guard Ivory Latta. Either way expect a track meet with final scores somewhere near the century mark. Georgia has played well of late, but it’s unlikely they can beat UNC at the Tar Heels preferred pace.

DAYTON

When pundits dubbed this region the group of death, no one thought it was because of Marist and Ole Miss, yet the upsets earlier this week set up a weekend matchup of favorites versus Cinderellas. Other than “why not?” there’s no good reason to think that the Marist joyride can continue. Lady Vol superstar Candace Parker is capable of carrying her team over top 20 opponents even when everyone is having a bad night, which isn’t often. In the other contest, Courtney Paris of the 60 straight double-double fame should lead her Sooners past pesky Ole Miss and set up a showdown between two of the game’s top three stars in the regional finals. An Oklahoma-Tennessee regional final would be a Final Four-caliber game stuck in the elite eight due to the foibles of the selection committee. It’s rarely a good idea to pick against Lady Vol coach Pat Summitt in a big game, but this potentially epic battle should be an exception.

mjohnson@nysun.com