Which Teams Can Bust the Brackets Come March?

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

If March represents madness in college basketball, February is all about clarity. Every win, every loss, every great individual performance makes the overall picture a little clearer. As the tournament approaches and fans and press alike start to consider possible brackets, every piece of information helps.

With apologies to Vandy over Florida, Michigan State over Wisconsin, and other big recent games, few events have told us more about the state of the game this season than ESPN’s recent BracketBusters series.

Dozens of teams from a wide array of mid-major conferences travel around the country to play each other. The matchups offer some insight into the relative strength of each league, and also each team. Despite Butler’s success this season, most college hoops fans have seen little of them this season. Is Nevada any good beyond Player of the Year candidate Nick Fazekas? Should Southern Illinois really be considered for a no. 3 seed in the big dance? BracketBusters provided some answers to these questions, and many others. Here’s what we learned:

The Missouri Valley isn’t what it was a year ago.

The six top teams in the Valley — Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State, Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State — went a combined 2–4. Worse, three of those four losses came at home. Wichita State, a Sweet 16 team last season, will likely miss the NCAA tournament this year, barring a conference tourney title. The Shockers started the year 9–0, rolling to an improbable Top 10 national ranking. But consecutive losses to New Mexico and USC in a Las Vegas holiday tournament sent the Shockers into a tailspin that carried over to their last-second loss to Appalachian State over the weekend. Missouri State has looked stronger this season, with an early-season win over Wisconsin one of several impressive victories. But the Bears looked outclassed at home against Winthrop, exposing their lack of athleticism and raising doubts about their postseason future. Coming off a loss to Southern Illinois, Creighton could ill afford another setback during Bracket-Busters. But the rugged Drexel Dragons (themselves a deserving at-large entry with a Division Ihigh 12 road wins) came back against the Blue Jays, knocking off the Valley’s second-best squad.

For all the question marks surrounding the conference’s other teams, though, Southern Illinois silenced many skeptics. The Salukis’ road win over Butler put the team’s full array of weapons on display: a tough backcourt led by waterbug Jamaal Tatum, a tough inside threat in Randal Falker, and above all a smothering defense that as ESPN analyst Rick Majerus said, has opponents smelling their mouthwash all game. No team is better conditioned than SIU, a valuable trait to have during the rigorous March Madness schedule. The Salukis are the mid-major team that’s best equipped to make a deep tournament run. With the right seeding, a Final Four shot is within reach.

Nevada may be better than we thought.

Fazekas averages a double-double, and is the kind of skilled 6-foot-11-inch big man who can give even elite opponents fits. But Nevada’s about more than just Fazekas. Marcellus Kemp is a worthy sidekick, averaging 18 points a game and capable of taking over if Fazekas gets into foul trouble or struggles on a given night. Ramon Sessions is the most underrated point guard in America. Kyle Shiloh is the senior steadying influence who can shut down the best perimeter player on other teams and make the right decisions under duress. The Wolf Pack have little depth, but few teams outside of North Carolina and Ohio State can claim all that much bench strength anyway. Nevada doesn’t have the killer defense that Southern Illinois does. But it’s got the personnel to match up with the big boys. The Wolfpack’s ability to take care of business against good but inferior teams, as the team did against Northern Iowa Saturday, shows that they’re not going to let up against lower seeds in the early rounds either.

You should get to know the Southern Conference.

When 5-foot-8-inch point guard D.J. Thompson sliced through the entire Wichita State defense to score the winning basket with 5.5 seconds left Saturday, he served notice that Appalachian State is for real. The Mountaineers lost to a few lowly teams early in the season. But they also have impressive victories against a trio of talented of teams: Virginia, Vanderbilt, and Virginia Commonwealth. A few weeks ago, no one would have expected the Southern Conference to get two entries into the tournament. Now, Appalachian State and rival Davidson both have the records and résumés to make a strong case. As for the impact of the Wichita State win, consider this: Last year, a little-known mid-major team traveled to Wichita and knocked off the Shockers, earning their own NCAA tournament bid in the process. That team? George Mason.

Don’t forget Winthrop.

Mid-majors like Southern Illinois, Nevada, and Air Force figure to land high seeds in the tourney. But George Mason started its Final Four run as a lowly no. 11 seed. The team best equipped to stage a similar rags-to-riches run may be Winthrop. The Eagles have been a perennial thorn in the side of NCAA opponents, nearly pulling off a number of first-round upsets. If Winthrop can move up to a no. 11 or 12 seed instead of the lower slots they’re used to getting, the team could set up well for a deep run.

The Eagles held their own earlier this season, weathering the storm while second-leading scorer Torrell Martin missed time because of an injury. With Martin back, Winthrop boasts a trio of big-time threats. Craig Bradshaw is a strong, 6-foot-10-inch pivotman who can draw the Hansbroughs and Noahs away from the basket by drilling open threes. Michael Jenkins is an even scarier marksman. The Eagles’ top scorer crushed Missouri State for 25 points, including seven bombs from beyond the arc. This is a team that seals off the defensive glass and owns the athleticism to blow by people on offense. Poor free-throw shooting may be the Eagles’ biggest concern. It’s not hard to close your eyes and imagine Winthrop battling a no. 1 seed down to the wire in the Sweet 16, only to face crucial late-game free throws with a chance to win it.

Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2 and a contributor to YESNetwork.com.


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