The Washington Wizards have to be kicking themselves. No, not for allowing LeBron James to tightrope along the baseline for a last-second lay-up to win Game 5 on Wednesday night. While that defensive breakdown was the one that made all the highlight reels, it isn’t the reason the Wizards are facing elimination tonight.

In reality, Washington is on the ropes because of what happened much earlier in the game. We tend to focus on the moments at the end of the game, but points scored in the first three quarters count just as much as points in the fourth. And for the Wizards, it was a key sequence in the third quarter that ultimately cost them the game.

If you’ll recall, the Wizards appeared to have control of the game after James committed his fourth foul and had to go to the bench. Conventional wisdom says that before the fourth quarter, you should take a player off the floor whenever he has more fouls than the current quarter (i.e., with two fouls in the first quarter, three in the second, or four in the third), and Cavs coach Mike Brown followed suit. As a result, James was on the pine for the final 6:53 of the third frame.

James’s absence should have given Washington an enormous edge. Without James on the floor this year, the Cavs have been a disaster offensively. According to 82games.com, Cleveland scored 13.3 fewer points per 100 minutes without the King on the court – as big a difference as there was for any player in basketball. With Washington leading 64-63 at the time and having nearly seven minutes to extend its lead, one would have figured the Wizards to open up a solid margin heading into the fourth quarter.

Instead, they found themselves trailing by four entering the fourth, thanks to what may be the worst six-minute stretch of defense I have ever seen. Washington switched to some kind of amorphous alignment that I think might have been a zone, but don’t quote me on it.

Whatever it was, it didn’t work. The Wizards allowed Cleveland guards Ronald Murray and Larry Hughes to drive the lane with impunity, making only the most halfhearted of efforts to get past screens while their opponents zoomed to the basket.

Occasionally, the Wizards would go under a screen against Hughes, since he’s such a shaky shooter. But Washington’s defenders went way too far under – we’re talking Carlsbad Caverns under – which allowed Hughes to shoot and make unmolested jumpers from the foul line. Overall, Hughes made two jumpers, Murray made three driving lay-ups, and together the pair scored 15 points while LeBron was out.

Overall, Washington allowed 22 points in that span, a rate that translates into 153 points during the course of a full game. In the Cavs’ 13 possessions, they only had three empty trips.

This came about despite three of Cleveland’s four best scorers – James, Drew Gooden, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas – being nailed to the bench, while Washington had its entire arsenal available. By all rights, the Wizards should have extended its lead and had the Cavs on the ropes heading into the fourth. If that had happened, they wouldn’t be facing elimination tonight.

Instead, the Wizards are ready to become the first playoff victim of the Le-Bron James era. Even if they can stave off elimination tonight, they’ll be faced with the daunting task of winning a Game 7 on the road on Sunday. If they can’t do it, Washington will have all summer to ponder its six minutes of defensive indifference late in the third quarter.

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Another series that could end tonight is the Western Conference tilt between the Kings and Spurs, which has featured the highest level of play of any of the first-round series.

Sacramento went 27-14 in the second half of the season to make the playoffs after a rough start, thanks primarily to the Ron Artest trade. Do the math and that makes the Kings a 54-win team over a full season. Match them up against the 63-win Spurs, and it looks more like a conference finals match-up than the 1 vs. 8 series in the opening round. Let’s face it – either of these teams would blow the Nets and Pacers to smithereens.

For Sacramento, one player in particular has stood out – guard Bonzi Wells. In perhaps the most surprising performance of this year’s playoffs, he’s averaging 24.5 points,12.2 rebounds, and shooting 60.3% against what was the NBA’s best defensive team this season.

Wells has done it largely by overpowering the Spurs’ wing players, Bruce Bowen and Manu Ginobili. Though listed at only 210 pounds, the beefier Wells appears to have at least a 20-pound edge on his counterparts and repeatedly has used it to bulldoze them in the post and outmuscle them for rebounding position. He’s the only King shooting over 43% in the series, and the only one averaging more than 5.5 rebounds. Basically, he’s keeping Sacramento alive by himself.

It appears the Spurs will survive nonetheless, especially after they withstood Wells’s 38-point, 12-rebound outburst to hang on and win Game 5 on Wednesday. But Bonzi’s bombast opens up another debate – his value on the market this summer. Wells is an unrestricted free agent after the season, and has set himself up for a big payday with his play of late.

As such, he is the Jerome James of 2006.While Wells is a better player than James, he did nothing this season to suggest he’s capable of his amazing postseason performance, nor did he do so in his previous eight NBA seasons. Plus, he has a well-chronicled reputation as a clubhouse cancer – a year ago at this same time the Grizzlies basically kicked him off the team.

Thus, any mention of Wells should have Knicks fans trembling, because this is exactly Charlie Riedel)the kind of player Isiah Thomas has overpaid for in the past. Moreover, Sacramento has luxury tax issues and a promising player in Kevin Martin to take Wells’s place, so the Kings would be more than happy to sign-and-trade him to another team. This all has a familiar ring to it, but let’s hope Isiah learned his lesson from a year ago and avoids the temptation to acquire another one-week wonder.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.