Who’s on the Hot Seat (Besides Isiah)?

“Beware the Ides of March,” they told Caesar, but that advice might apply just as well to NBA coaches. While the profession isn’t known for its job security, the season has three points when coaches are especially vulnerable. One, of course, is right after the season ends. A second one is about 20 games in, when disappointing teams hope a change of captains can fix things rather than a trade. But the third, lesser-known spot comes a couple of weeks after next week’s trade deadline. At that point teams can no longer deal their way into a better position and firing the coach is the only remaining option — especially for those clinging to playoff hopes.This season has only seen one coaching change — Chicago’s dismissal of Scott Skiles — an unusually low number by NBA standards. So if you buy the idea that March is the other vulnerable point for the league’s coaches, we could see more moves on the way. At the top of the list, as always, is New York’s Isiah Thomas. It’s beyond the point where you need to make a case for his being fired; it’s only a question of when owner James Dolan acknowledges the mountain of evidence showing his coach and team president to be completely outclassed.In the Knicks’ case, mid-March could be as good a time as any. For starters, it would be a nice closing of the circle from last March, when Dolan awarded Thomas a ridiculous contract extension because the Knicks temporarily owned the no. 8 seed in the East. But more importantly, it should be around then when the Knicks’ playoff hopes disappear entirely. Right now, New York is seven games out of the final playoff spot in the East, providing at least a glimmer of hope that the team can make a run for the no. 8 spot. The fact that none of the six teams ahead of them appears able to get out of their own way at the moment strengthens that idea — as bad as the Knicks have been, if they go 20–11 the rest of the way they’ll probably make the postseason. And while 20–11 seems laughably optimistic to the rest of us, for glass-overflowing types such as Dolan and Thomas it probably seems attainable.That fantasy should finally bite the dust once they’ve dropped to more like 10 games back and there are only 20 or so games left to play. At that point, one might think Dolan will finally admit the charade is done and bring on more competent management. We can only hope.In the meantime, let’s take a look at some of the other vulnerable coaches heading into March. I’m not saying all of them — or any of them — will lose their jobs; but if you were drawing up odds on a coach going, this is where you’d start:SAM VINCENT, BOBCATSIn his first season at the helm, Vincent has looked overmatched for the job. This isn’t a big shock — he only had one year of experience on an NBA bench, and though some thought he was head-coaching material pretty much everybody felt he needed more seasoning.It’s bad enough that the Bobcats have spent the whole season casting quizzical looks at the bench and appear close to quitting on him. It’s worse that he’s also made poor personnel choices. Former Net scrub Jeff McInnis’s continued presence in the lineup is baffling, but even that pales against his decision to bury forward Walter Herrmann on the end of the bench. He’d been one of Charlotte’s best players a year earlier, but Vincent couldn’t find a role for him and he was eventually traded to Detroit.LARRY KRYSTKOWIAK, BUCKSKrystkowiak openly questioned his team’s motivation after Monday’s embarrassing home loss to the Clippers; soon he might find himself the one being questioned. An Ides of March hire a year ago to replace Terry Stotts, he’s made no impact whatsoever on the Bucks’ woeful defense.Additionally, the man who hired him — general manager Larry Harris — is on the hot seat. If Harris is given his walking papers in the coming weeks, which would shock nobody given the team’s struggles under his tenure, then Krystkowiak may be the next casualty. Few coaches survive a transition to a new GM for long.MAURICE CHEEKS, SIXERSSpeaking of transitions to a new GM, Cheeks finds himself working for Ed Stefanski after Philly whacked Billy King early in the season. Additionally, Cheeks’s contract expires after the season. As long as the Sixers stay in the playoff race — at the moment they’re a half-game out of the no. 8 spot in the East — Cheeks has little reason to be worried. But should the Sixers falter in the next few weeks, expect Stefanski to get a head start on the search for his next coach.MIKE WOODSON, HAWKSWoodson’s team is only 7–14 since the New Year and is having trouble hanging on to its no. 7 position in the East — even though the teams around them have done all they can to hand them the spot. While his team has played hard for him and ranks in the top 10 in Defensive Efficiency (my measure of a team’s points allowed per 100 possessions), offense is a different story. Too often he slows down Atlanta’s greyhounds to run predictable half-court sets, and his overuse of guard Joe Johnson is leading to his worst season as a pro.MIKE DUNLEAVY, CLIPPERSDespite his team’s struggles, he appeared safe until owner Donald Sterling fired shots across his bow through the L.A. papers. The Clips are wracked by injuries, but The Donald still felt they should make a run at the playoffs … nobody said he was logical.With L.A. at 17–32 and 13 games out of the no. 8 spot in the West with 33 to play, that obviously ain’t happening. And after Dunleavy responded to Sterling’s comments with some barbs of his own, it’s pretty clear where Sterling will look if he decides he needs a scapegoat.PAT RILEY, HEATUnlike the other coaches on this list, Riley has no chance of being fired. But he might choose to replace himself and revert to his role as team president, which is what he did a couple of years ago when he found himself with a major rebuilding project. Assistant Erik Spoelstra is highly regarded around the league and would seem the logical choice to fill Riley’s shoes; doing it now would also permit Riley to get a head start on all the draft and free agency prep he’s going to have to do.jhollinger@nysun.com

Who’s on the Hot Seat (Besides Isiah)?

Who’s on the Hot Seat (Besides Isiah)?

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