Midnight tonight will ring in a new fiscal year for the NFL. Each team will have restructured the necessary contracts and cut overpriced players in order to get under the NFL salary cap of $85.5 million. Then the bidding wars will begin: March 2 marks the start of the NFL free agent signing season.

A number of dominos have already fallen in what looks to be the off-season’s most frenzied market – wide receivers. First came the news of Oakland’s trade for Randy Moss last Wednesday. Then the Bears made headlines Saturday by inking Muhsin Muhammad to a six-year, $30 million contract, only hours after Carolina cut him; Chicago followed that up yesterday by releasing wide receiver David Terrell, the eighth pick in the 2001 draft.

The Redskins, meanwhile, left many football observers scratching their heads with their attempts to deal both their disgruntled starting receivers, Laveraneus Coles and Rod Gardner. An apparent trade between the Redskins and Jets that would have sent Coles back to the Meadowlands in exchange for Santana Moss broke down when Coles demanded a contract extension from his new team. The Redskins also cannot trade Coles unless they make additional room under their salary cap by restructuring other players’s deals, because they have agreed to take the salary cap hit for a $5 million deferred signing bonus due Coles on March 2.

The Redskins are now stuck. Nobody wants to deal for Coles if he demands an extension; if he isn’t traded, the Redskins will have to waive additional players because that $5 million bonus will count against their cap. Washington may in fact need to waive Coles, putting him out on the free agent market with no compensation in return.

If so, Coles would join an impressive group highlighted by Derrick Mason, Plaxico Burress, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The suitors for these players, in addition to the Jets, include Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta. Other teams such as Minnesota, San Diego, and Carolina are not desperate for a single star receiver but may be looking to strengthen their passing game.

With so many teams looking for receivers, the Bears are probably glad that they signed Muhammad, the player they wanted, before anyone else had a chance. But in doing so, they may have made the worst possible mistake when it comes to modern NFL economics: paying for past performance instead of future potential.

There is no doubting that Muhammad was a game-changing receiver in 2004. After Steve Smith was injured in the season’s first week, Muhammad took over as Carolina’s no. 1 wideout and proceeded to lead the league with 1,405 receiving yards and 16 receiving touchdowns. Only Reggie Wayne and Joe Horn were more valuable receivers according to Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR), a metric I use to measure receiver value by comparing passes to the league-average performance by situation.

But Muhammad’s statistics from last season stick out like a sore thumb when compared to the rest of his career. George W. Bush was still governor of Texas the last time Muhammad topped 1,000 yards in a season. His 16 touchdowns were more than he had the previous four seasons combined. And while his career year came at age 31, wide receivers usually begin their decline after 30.

Muhammad would have made sense for the Falcons, who need to add a veteran receiver to a team coming off a trip to the NFC Championship game. But a young team like the Bears, for whom a number of offensive players are still developing, would be better off with a young receiver who may have the peak of his career ahead of him as well.

Burress and Houshmandzadeh, both 27, fit that bill – and will likely require less money. The two receivers are different in both style and career path: Burress is the big-play threat; Houshmandzadeh is the steady midrange target. Burress is known for being difficult to coach; Houshmandzadeh for being a gentleman. After a poor rookie campaign, Burress enjoyed 1,000-yard seasons in 2001 and 2002 but struggled with injuries in 2004; Houshmandzadeh finally broke out of a pack of young Cincinnati receivers to establish himself with a strong 2004.

Both Burress and Houshmandzadeh have been tagged as “number twos,” unable to step up as the main target for the passing game. But Muhammad was given the same tag before Smith’s injury early this season made him the focal point of the Carolina offense. A year ago, nobody would have thought to offer Muhammad more money than Burress.

But the best available receiver this off-season is neither Muhammad nor a still-developing youngster like Burress. It is Mason, still at his peak at age 30 and coming off four straight 1,000-yard seasons in Tennessee. DPAR rates him as one of the 15 most valuable receivers in football in three of the past four years, though he dipped to 23rd in 2004. By comparison, Muhammad had never been ranked as one of the top 20 receivers in DPAR until this past season.

Though consistently underrated, Mason has great hands and an uncanny ability to shake cornerbacks and get open. In 2003, he was the only NFL receiver to catch 70% of the balls thrown his way. Only Mason and New England’s Troy Brown have caught 70% of passes twice in the past give seasons. Even in 2004, he caught 61% of intended passes, compared to 58% caught by Muhammad.

One rumor has Mason coming to the Jets to reunite with his former Tennessee offensive coordinator, Mike Heimerdinger. That would be a better move by the Jets than trading for Coles would have been, because signing him would not require losing Moss.

Ironically, though, the more persistent rumor has Mason headed to Carolina to replace Muhammad. That signing could make the Panthers the NFC South favorites, having lost their top receiver of 2004 and ended up the better for it.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.