Destroying the competition last week in the Santa Catalina Stakes at Santa Anita seems to have destroyed the Kentucky Derby hopes of the early favorite, Declan’s Moon. The 2004 2-year-old of the year seemed fine after the race, but developed some heat and swelling in one of his knees; X-rays later showed that the horse had fractured his knee.

Although it would be possible to race him in his current condition, it is better for the long-term health of the horse to give him some time off to heal, which is what his connections have done.

“It’s a tough thing to back off when you’re that close to the Derby,” trainer Ron Ellis told the Daily Racing Form, “but anything we’d do now, if we went on, would compromise him down the line. He’s a gelding. We want to get a few more good years out of him.”

And so the favorite succumbs to the curse of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ. Declan’s Moon had turned in one of the most commanding races of this prep season – and it’s been a season marked by good performances from strong horses – and his departure from the Derby trail leaves things a bit more open.

One horse stepping into the limelight is High Limit, who romped home in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Coming in, High Limit was a noted mystery, something to watch, perhaps, but not a known quantity. The horse had run only twice, both starts last October at Delaware Park. First, he wired a 6-furlong Maiden Special Weight, coming home 10 3/4 lengths ahead of the field; next, he stretched out to a mile in a $36,300 allowance, and ran away with it again.

Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel took over training responsibilities in November, but the fact remained that the horse has never seen another horse so much as poke a head in front of him. Neither had he ever run in stakes company, or around two turns.

It didn’t seem to matter Saturday, when High Limit jumped to the lead, hustling to the front before the first turn. He stayed a length ahead of the field, and opened it up on the stretch, to notch another four lengths onto his now 22 1/2 total margin of victory.

That performance certainly punched High Limit’s ticket to the next big prep race, either the April 9 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland the following weekend. That would give High Limit only two preps going into the Derby, which is a difficult move. The last horse to win the Derby on such a light schedule was Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

Only slightly more recently has a filly prevailed on the first Saturday in May, when Winning Colors took the roses in 1988. But yesterday’s strong race by Sweet Catomine in the Santa Anita Oaks confirmed suspicions that this year’s Derby might go to a girl again.

Sweet Catomine was the champion 2-year-old filly, having won three of her four starts as a juvenile. She ended that season with a commanding victory in the Breeders’ Cup, winning her race a half-second faster than Wilko took the juvenile colts’ race. She debuted as a 3-year-old January 16 in the Grade III Santa Ysabel stakes at Santa Anita, and her winter’s rest seemed to have done her well – she took that race by 2 1/2 lengths.

The overwhelming favorite yesterday, Sweet Catomine tore around the 1 1/6 miles in 1.44:44. She began the race settled in on the inside in sixth place. Guaranteed Victory set the pace for the first half-mile before fading. Charming Coleen, who had been stalking up to that point, took control for the next two quarter-miles.

Sweet Catomine, with Corey Nakatani up, pulled hard to get into the race when pulled off the rail, and made a lightning-fast move to improve her position while running four wide. Cream Donut Keith, with rider Tyler Baze, was checked inside of Sweet Catomine on the turn and Baze called a foul on the winner. But the stewards deemed that the incident had no bearing on the finish of the race.

At 3/4 miles, Sweet Catomine was only a head behind Charming Coleen, and she kicked clear. Her acceleration at the top of the stretch was simply brilliant. She ran a bit weirdly, angling in as she came home. But she had 3 lengths coming down the stretch, and held them easily until the wire.

Although she’s the early favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, her connections have been toying with putting her up against the boys, first in the Santa Anita Derby, and then, perhaps in the Kentucky Derby. It’s always a crapshoot stepping a filly into the gate against colts: Two-year-old fillies are on almost equal footing with 2-year-old colts, but as 3-year-olds the boys start to bulk up and the fillies do not.

Yet this year’s crop of 3-year-olds, while turning in some good races, has benefited from easy trips and paces seemingly custom-made for the favorites. Sun King, High Fly, Declan’s Moon, Afleet Alex – all the hot horses have run simple races, rolling around the track stalking the pace with no late challenges and no traffic. Sweet Catomine was deeper in the pack, jumped four wide, caused enough trouble to have a foul called against her, and still won.

“She is the best filly that ever lived, and she’s going to prove it this year,” said her trainer Julio Canani.

Sweet Catomine seems like the real thing, a pro. Even in a season where the chalk has been running well and the big horses – the ones that aren’t injured, anyway – are turning in the performances expected of them, she seems to shine. With Declan’s Moon out of the running, it’s that much easier to imagine that this year’s wide-open, highly competitive Derby trail ends up with a filly wearing the roses.