Wait a minute – this wasn’t the script. The Detroit Pistons were supposed to beat Cleveland comfortably in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Wednesday, setting them up to close things out on Friday. Everyone would pat the Cavaliers on the back for how well they competed and how they rallied to make it a competitive series, and then we’d get on with the Detroit-Miami conference finals sequel that everyone expected.

It seems somebody forgot to tell Cleveland about this. The Cavs’ stunning 86-84 victory gave them two chances to finish off the Pistons this weekend, a feat which would rank among the greatest upsets in NBA playoff history. Making it even more amazing is that the veteran, been-there, done that Pistons are the ones making all the crunch-time mistakes – including picking up two fourth-quarter technical fouls in a game they lost by two points – while the inexperienced Cavs are dominating in crunch time.

Believe it or not, Detroit hasn’t won a fourth quarter the entire series, and most nights they haven’t come close. For the series as a whole, the Pistons have been outscored by 36 points in the final stanza – after holding a 56-point edge in quarters one through three.

The offense has been the biggest problem. In five fourth quarters, Detroit has managed just 90 points. Once again on Wednesday, the Pistons couldn’t get a big basket down the stretch, allowing Cleveland to overcome its own offensive ineptitude and steal another win.

The key for tonight? Emotion. I normally talk about the statistical elements of the game in this column, but in this case we need to deal with the emotional ones. As much as any series I’ve ever seen, this one has been defined not by metrics like efficiency or shooting percentage, but by the simple fact that one team is playing much, much harder than the other one.

That’s a fuzzy concept to prove, but it was as obvious as the Empire State Building in Game 5. Cleveland came up with virtually every loose ball, and Cavs players were coming up with key defensive plays left and right – even the ones who normally aren’t good defenders. One example is Donyell Marshall, who blocked Tayshaun Prince’s effort at a game-tying runner. Another is guard Flip Murray – who’s only playing because regular starter Larry Hughes’s brother died this week – who was never known for his defense but manhandled Richard Hamilton in Game 4.

Contrast that with the Pistons, who spent the past three games acting like they’re too cool to be bothered sharing a basketball court with the Cavs. Part of that could be a result of Detroit’s playoff history. Over the past three years, the Pistons have played so well with their backs against the wall that they’ve tended to coast at other times, only turning the intensity back up when the going gets tough.

It’s worked in the past, which is why no one is counting Detroit out. This will be the fifth time in the past three years they’ve faced elimination in a Game 6 – four of them on the road – and they haven’t lost one yet. That’s a dangerous game to play, though. There’s no guarantee they can summon the necessary energy at will, and even if they can, there’s still the matter of having to come back in 36 hours and win a Game 7 on Sunday.

On top of that, the Pistons seem to be getting increasingly arrogant about their penchant for winning crucial games. Rasheed Wallace guaranteed the Pistons would prevail after both Game 3 and Game 4 – both of which Detroit lost. And check out some of the postgame quotes from Wednesday. Yes, postgame – after they’d already been beaten for a third straight game.

“I’m still not concerned because I know what we’re capable of,” Chauncey Billups said.

“Not taking anything away from [Le-Bron James], he’s uplifting his team, but I still say one man is not gonna beat five,” Rasheed Wallace said. “To me, it’s no real concern.”

In other words, they’re 24 hours from meeting Jason Kidd and Vince Carter on the golf course, and two of the five starters aren’t concerned.

I’m just wondering aloud here – at what point should they get concerned? When the game starts tonight and Rasheed Wallace’s limp hasn’t gone away? When they’re down 15 at halftime? When LeBron James – who actually has played fairly poorly in this series compared to his usual lofty standard – pulls together the 40-point or 50-point night we all know he’s capable of?

Strangely enough, though, I still like Detroit to win this thing. The quote that sticks with me isn’t the Pistons’ silly postgame posturing, but something Marshall relayed: “That was about as perfect a game of basketball as you can play against that team.”

In other words, they played perfectly … and won by two. The Cavs are barely squeaking out victories by scratching, clawing, and hustling to overcome Detroit’s superior talent. At some point, one would think their energy level is going to dip and that the Pistons will finally deliver an effort worthy of the top seed.

But the Pistons better hope that the “some point” I speak of comes tonight. Otherwise, they’ll join the 1994 Sonics, 1999 Heat, and 1981 Lakers as the greatest upset victims in NBA history.

Despite what the Pistons may profess, I’d say that’s cause for concern.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.