Will We See Another Photo Finish in the NL?

Baseball fans might have to get into the habit of being spoiled. Last year, because of the playoff format that includes three divisions plus a wild card team, the National League provided an unprecedented slate of four equally active and equally thrilling races for October action.Mets fans may forever rue the September fade that put their club on golf courses weeks early while the Phillies played their way into October as the NL East’s division champs, but the Cubs similarly managed to overtake the Brewers to wind up winning the NL Central. Neither comeback, though, matched the Rockies’ even more incredible in-season turnaround, capped by 13 wins in their final 14 to create a one-game play-in matchup against the fading Padres for the wild card. Compared to those three inspired inseason comebacks, the Diamondbacks’ stunning victory in the NL West — despite allowing more runs than they scored, only the sixth team to make the postseason while doing so — might get lost in the shuffle.So, in light of the drama and that kind of incredible turnover in the playoff slate, how many teams in the senior circuit have hope and faith this season — and will this season provide anything like the same sort of tense scoreboard-watching as summer turns to fall? Somewhat, because even the stronger contenders come with warts, making none of the teams in the field of contenders a sure thing.Consider the Mets. Although the strongest team on paper in the league, especially with the addition of former Twins ace Johan Santana to the rotation, the fact that they’ve already lost starting outfielder Moises Alou and Orlando Hernandez to injuries highlights how tenuous their strength is. The Mets have nothing close to the kind of depth that will allow them to overcome the inevitable injuries that will crop up with a mostly veteran team, and they can ill-afford Carlos Delgado, Alou, Luis Castillo, or Carlos Beltran losing parts of their games to age, even if they all remain relatively healthy. But, their front four in the rotation — Santana, a healthy Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, and John Maine — is perhaps the best in the league. That, plus David Wright, Beltran, and Jose Reyes, is enough to make them the initially tabbed best team in the league.In contrast, the Phillies have a desperate amount of risk built into their rotation. Even with Brett Myers returning to a starting role, Jamie Moyer’s losing ground with age, Kyle Kendrick will be hard-pressed to repeat — let alone improve upon — his rookie performance, and free agent bust Adam Eaton doesn’t seem any more ready to redeem the decision to bring him in. That’s without getting into whether or not they can possibly match last season’s league-leading 892 runs, despite losing Aaron Rowand’s 72 extra-base hits to free agency. If the Mets have a stalking horse to worry about in the division, it’s more likely to be the Braves, who will have the benefit of a full season from Mark Teixeira at first base and in the middle of their relatively young and potent lineup, as well as having the benefit of an improved, deeper pen. Still, the Braves will not be able to afford losing Chipper Jones for any length of time. And although the rotation has the depth to afford the next (perhaps inevitable) Mike Hampton injury, they’re still going to have to hope that John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Tim Hudson don’t lose much to age.Perhaps the club best prepared to mount a challenge to the Mets as the titular “best” are the Cubs in the NL Central. With Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome helping improve the team’s on-base percentage, and the addition of a full season’s worth of slugging from catching prospect Geovany Soto, the lineup will be strong enough to afford to give blue-chip center field prospect Felix Pie room to blossom into the premium defender their pitching staff could use. Add that to a solid rotation, which is backed by a bullpen with the sort of depth that gives skipper Lou Piniella the room for some creativity in how he employs a comebacking Kerry Wood, curveball fiend Bobby Howry, and the power assortment of sophomore Carlos Marmol — and it’s not hard to envision the Cubs winding up with the best record in the league.But running up against the Cubs will be the Brewers, the single best collection of talent that’s in its prime on any roster. On defense, the initial hope is that this winter’s reshuffling, by bringing in center fielder Mike Cameron to play center, bumping former infielder Bill Hall back to third, putting last season’s Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun, in left (from third) does the trick. But there’s still the need for improvement from the right side of the infield, where both first baseman Prince Fielder and second baseman Rickie Weeks have their limitations. Behind that pair of favorites, the Reds have the best potential to mount a surprise bid, depending entirely upon skipper Dusty Baker’s ability to integrate some veteran leavings with top prospects such as center fielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Joey Votto, and pitchers Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto.The West should also provide a smaller field than last year, in that the Padres have lost ground from their previously competitive clubs. It should instead be “just” a three-team race, as the Rockies’ faith in their core of homegrown talent will run up against the Diamondbacks’ commitment to win now by bringing in ace Danny Haren to complement Brandon Webb in their rotation. Neither team, however, can match the Dodgers in terms of financial muscle, talent from the farm, or top players already on the big league roster. If Arizona is going to remain atop the division, it will need more than just a rotation shored up to paper over Randy Johnson’s breakdowns. It will also require that young players such as center fielder Chris Young and shortstop Stephen Drew live up to their billing and show improvement over last season.All told, it might not be as full a field as last season’s slate, where as many as a dozen teams could see themselves as contenders. But there are at least 10 teams to take seriously, which should make for another compelling series of races.Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.

Will We See Another Photo Finish in the NL?

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