From the West and the South, from the Prairie State and the Sunshine State, a heavily talented crop of 3-year-old colts is headed to Louisville next Saturday to make a run for the roses off a string of strong wins in good races. The cards have been dealt, race fans, the prep season is over. Next stop: Derby.

This year, the post parade is going to give you goose bumps, the break is going to make you shout, and the horse standing in the circle at the end with a blanket of roses will have earned it – he’ll be the best 3-year-old in the country.

Last year we had dramatic, seemingly impossible wins stacked up against disappointing flops. We saw unfeasible improvements. Bellamy Road was the favorite at Churchill in 2005 based on only two starts as a 3-year-old, one of which was in an allowance race. Okay, the combined margin of victory was 33 1/4 lengths, but he had run a Beyer Fig of a whopping 24 points higher in his second race than the first. How is that a pattern? It wasn’t, but it was good enough. This year couldn’t be more different.

Next week, 150,000 mint julep-swilling Kentuckians-for-a-day will squint down at their programs and rock in their saddle shoes. They’ll see that the Derby gate is full of horses that can earn it. Last year we were basically watching an improbably expensive Allowance race for non-winners of two. This year, as spectators throw an arm over a stranger’s shoulder and slur through half the words of “My Old Kentucky Home,” we’ll be watching the post parade for an honest-to-god Kentucky Derby.

It’s a big race, with 20 horses in the gate. But only two of them are going to define the way the race is run. The most important influence on the race will be the presence of two speed horses: Sinister Minister and Sharp Humor.

Sinister Minister is coming off of the most impressive wins of the prep season in the April 15 Blue Grass Stakes, a race he ran away with, leading gate to wire, and coming home 12 3/4 lengths in front. In that race, he led through six furlongs in 1:09:80. Remember the blazing pace that destroyed the frontrunners in last year’s Derby? 1:09:59. Sinister didn’t look destroyed as he ran across the wire. He had run the fastest Beyer of any colt of his generation, but like Bellamy Road before him, the dramatic Beyer increase of 91 to 116 should give pause. Last out, in the March 11 California Derby at Golden Gate, he was caught after setting the pace. He hit the rail twice on the stretch, which is a nice excuse but still means you lost the race. What’s notable about the Cal Derby, however, is the six furlong split: 1:09 flat.

Seasoned handicappers will note that the two races mentioned are in California, where speed is king, and Keeneland, where the inside track is supposed to hand the race to the quick. I’ll simply point to Barclay Tagg’s comment, quoted in the Racing Form, regarding why he isn’t shipping to Churchill Downs early: “They pack that track down until it’s a brick road. The Derby’s run on a lightning-fast track. I’ll probably get in trouble for saying that, but it’s the truth.”

Sharp Humor is the only other colt to have clocked 1:09 and change at six furlongs on the way to the Derby. He did it winning the Swale at Gulfstream Park on March 4, a race in which he pressured the pace, but didn’t set it.

To expect anything other than a 1:09 this year is foolish. Bob Baffert, who trains Sinister Minister, was a quarter horse trainer, and those races are about nothing but quickness and speed. Sharp Humor has no other race. Mark Guidry will simply have to gun it and go. He’s got heart under him, as anyone who saw Sharp Humor’s resolve not to get passed by Barbaro in the April 1 Florida Derby will easily attest.

So there’s the first element: two horses out front in a speed duel through the first six furlongs.

The second tier is made up of the heavy hitters. They, too, are horses unaccustomed to dirt in their faces. You’re going to see some serious reining in, some jockeys with the reins pulled back tight as they try to keep these front-loving ponies in check.

The Morning Line favorite will most likely be Brother Derek. The Derby will be his fourth start as a 3-year-old. Under his belt, three wins, at ever increasing distances, each with triple digit Beyer Figures, and each in Graded Stakes company.

Lawyer Ron figures to be up there as well. He’s undefeated since moving from the turf to the dirt. Jock McKee tends to keep him restrained, saving something in the tank. While they’ve usually done that on the lead, it might not be too much of a stretch to do it with the horse out front.

Rounding out that second tier is Barbaro, Bob and John, and Sweetnorthernsaint. Barbaro is undefeated in five starts. Bob and John seems a natural stalker. Bred and owned by Stonerside stable, he’s finished off the board only once in nine starts. Sweetnorthernsaint knocked the ball out of the park in the April 8 Illinois Derby, coming off of a stalking trip to take control on the stretch and pull away to a 9 1/4 length victory.

Throw in a few heavy closers – Jazil making up all that ground in the April 8 Wood Memorial out at Aqueduct – and some guts – like Showing Up fighting to get out front and win the Coolmore Lexington last week – and the Derby becomes very interesting. It doesn’t stop at the second tier, but rather continues on through the pack, one good pony after another.

Handicapping last year’s Derby was difficult because the horses were so unpredictable. Looking at this year’s race, we see that good horse racing doesn’t make for a clearer picture. Good thing we’ve got a week left to run this race in our heads before the real thing is run on the dirt.

mwatman@nysun.com