With Barbaro, Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and the newcomers all ready to roll in Saturday’s 131st Preakness Stakes, there is only one question to ask: How many miles to go until fantasy confronts reality?

Two weeks ago, we saw Barbaro win the Derby by the largest margin in six decades. He looked like he had more to give. He wasn’t lucky. The race didn’t fall apart. It was a well-earned, commanding victory over the cream off the top of a strong generation of colts. And so the buzz began. Barbaro and the Triple Crown. It’s been 28 years.

To those unacquainted with the customs of the horse world, there’s frequently a lot of hoopla anticipating things that never happen.

Perhaps it’s a trait picked up from gambling. There you sit, lottery ticket tucked neatly into your shirt pocket. Do you not rock back in your desk chair and briefly imagine yourself pulling up to the office in your gleaming Ferrari, swinging by to pick up your favorite mug and the photo of your dog? Without the greedy dream of the imagined impossible, lotteries would wither away.

But the fantasy of lottery winnings is dull, rapacious, and unimaginative.

Fantasizing about a horse race yet to be run is an art and a science. We have tools. Charts. Factors. We have ratios and control groups. We have history and the careful record keeping of a few hundred years worth of racing to consider. And for the next 2 11/16 miles, since they have yet to be run, we have a Triple Crown winner.

Obviously, with it being horse racing, the Saturday’s race might go any number of ways. But the key to horse racing is that until they cross the wire, your version might come true. Whatever you want to believe, you can believe. The cherry on top? Someone actually gives you odds on the way you think the future will unfold.

There are two ways the Preakness might develop – both end with Barbaro in the winner’s circle.

The first is as it would happen if it were a typical stakes race: The speed horses Like Now and Diabolical jet to the front and are stalked by Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint. Bernardini and Barbaro hang in behind those two, racing in the fifth and sixth slots. Brother Derek makes his move, Barbaro goes with him.

That could happen the other way around, but the result is the same. They come into the stretch with the lead, trading it back forth, head to head. Barbaro shuts him down. The question becomes how far Brother Derek fades He’s an excellent horse, but he is discouraged because he’s used to an open track, and it’s only the second time he’s had all this formidable competition and mud in his face. Sweetnorthernsaint targets Barbaro, but is too tired – he was absolutely shot at the end of the Derby – to get by him. Diabolical and Like Now fade. Bernardini finds himself the inheritor of the place money. Show money goes to Brother Derek or Sweetnorthernsaint, depending on which happens to have his head out front at the right moment.

That’s how it would run if it were an ungraded stakes race on the Friday before the Preakness.

This, however, is not what’s going to happen. Michael Trombetta, trainer of Sweetnorthersaint, recently participated in a National Thoroughbred Racing Association teleconference, and was asked whether we’d see his horse up in the race earlier, mixing it up.

“Well, I don’t want to be back where I was, I mean, by no means … he just needs to be in the clear without losing a lot of ground,” Trombetta said. “He just needs to have a free running style. … he’s got a real nice cruising speed, and when you bottle him all up, it’s kind of hard on him.”

Expect Kent Desormeaux, up in the irons on Sweetnorthernsaint, to step on the gas.

Michael Hendricks, trainer of Brother Derek, was asked if he believes his horse could get by Barbaro on the stretch if they find each other eye to eye.

“Well, because it’s going to be a totally different … race if he’s laying [in a] similar position to Barbaro and they make their moves. And all I can do is hope that I can out dog fight him.”

The Preakness is not a typical stakes race. It’s the race following the Derby. The second jewel of the Triple Crown. And as Trombetta said, “everybody knows who the target is.”

Everyone has two things on their mind. The first is, ‘Don’t get trapped in traffic.’ The second is, ‘Beat Barbaro.’

Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint are going to jump out of the gate, tasting blood, trying to make up for bad trips in the Derby by giving not an inch. Everyone wants these three eye to eye.

Brother Derek is going to take the lead. Sweetnorthernsaint is going to pressure him. Like Now and Barbaro are going to have the second spots. Like Now is not going to settle into a good run, because he’s not going to like having horses in front of him and he’s going to be boxed in on the rail. When Like Now fades, Barbaro will make his move. The weaker of the two out front will not go with him – my gut tells me that Sweetnorthernsaint fades, still tired from the Derby. It’s Brother Derek and Barbaro, the race we all want to see, the dog fight.

At the top of the stretch they’ll open up a length on the field. By mid stretch, still at each other, they’ll be six lengths out front, trading the lead back and forth. Tom Durkin, the race caller, will be screaming at the top of his lungs. All of Baltimore will be on its feet: Barbaro is wearing him down. Brother Derek is digging down. Brother Derek is all heart! Barbaro is flat out. It’s Barbaro. Barbaro has a neck in front! Barbaro with a final jump to the wire. Barbaro wins the Preakness Stakes!

And we’ve got 1 1/2 miles of Belmont Stakes fantasy left.

Mr. Watman is the author of “Race Day: A Spot on the Rail With Max Watman” (Ivan R. Dee).