Yankees Are Getting Soft Up the Middle

From their first World Series title of this era in 1996, to their run at a 14th-straight playoff berth this season, the Yankees have benefited from having the strongest up-the-middle players in the league. Since 2005, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano have comprised one of the best up-the-middle threesomes baseball has seen in a generation. Add some of the best seasons posted by Johnny Damon, Alfonso Soriano, and Chuck Knoblauch during their years at up-the-middle positions, and the middle looks even stronger. Throw in the huge productivity of Bernie Williams’s peak seasons, and you get one of the best collections of up-the-middle talent in MLB history.That’s why it’s so jarring to see the Yankees’ middles struggling so badly this year. For all the attention heaped on Joba Chamberlain’s shift to the rotation; the struggles of young starters Ian Kennedy and Philip Hughes, and the rebirth of Steinbrenner rants from George’s sons Hank and Hal, the decline of the Yankees’ up-the-middle players is the biggest story in the Bronx in 2008. It’s also the single biggest reason that the Yankees have moved from a Park Avenue penthouse to sharing a one-room dump with two cellar-dwelling buddies.To illustrate this riches-to-rags story, we’ve compiled a table showing the production put up by the Yankees’ starters at shortstop, second base, center field, and catcher between 1998 and 2008. Tracked by BaseballReference.com (and other sites), OPS+ adds a player’s on-base percentage and slugging average, adjusts for ballpark effects, then compares that number to the league average. A 100 OPS+ is average, a 120 shows production 20% above average, and an 80 is 20% below average.From 1998 (the year Joe Torre lost his fascination with the gee-whiz grit, leadership, and useless bat of his eventual successor, Joe Girardi, and handed the catching job to Posada) through 2007, the Yankees fielded above-average players at all four middle positions five times. In the remaining five years, three of the four middles were above-average players.This season, all four up-the-middle players with the most playing time at their respective positions — Jeter at short, Cano at second, Melky Cabrera in center, and Jose Molina, who until recently subbed for the injured Posada behind the plate — have turned in below-average offensive performances. Through Monday’s games, Jeter was hitting .276 AVG/.331 OBA/.379 SLG, with just three homers and 14 walks in 58 games (94 OPS+). Cano’s at .231/.273/.336 (66 OPS+), Cabrera’s at .270/.322/.386 (93 OPS+), and Molina’s at a horrific .217/.234/.317 (49 OPS+). If those paces continue, Chamberlain could turn into vintage Roger Clemens and Girardi could make 1,362 great managerial moves in a row and the Yankees still won’t make the playoffs.The question then becomes: Will the middle guys improve?The lowest-hanging fruit lies at catcher. Posada’s back in the lineup and he’s hitting, locked at .311/.370/.514 through Monday (139 OPS+). For all the yammering earlier this year about Molina being a good backup catcher, the fact is he’s one of the worst players in the majors, and has no business on a team with championship aspirations. Downgrading from Posada to Molina earlier this year was roughly akin to swapping out A-Rod for Scott Brosius — 2008 Scott Brosius. Entering his late 30s, Posada will soon start to decline. But assuming he stays healthy for the rest of 2008, that’s still the biggest single-position gain the Yankees will see all year.Cano may be the single most disappointing player in the majors so far this year, given how far he is below his impressive career norms. But Cano got off to a slow start last year, too. He stood at .264/.298/.394 at the end of May last season, a line that’s not all that far from his current numbers, considering the AL-wide drop in run-scoring this year. He raked the rest of the way, joining Bobby Abreu in going from a slow start to a huge finish, and leading the Yankees back to the playoffs. Cano’s going to go through stretches where he looks terrible, because he swings at everything. But given his age (just 25) and his track record of success in spite of his hacker tendencies, you have to like his chances for success, this year and beyond.The same may not be true for Cabrera. The Yankees center fielder is even younger than Cano (he turns 24 in August). He’s also an excellent defensive player, showing good range and a strong arm in center field. But his offense is all potential right now. In his rookie season in 2006, Cabrera hit .280 with a .360 OBA, showing a good batting eye. Though he hit just seven homers in 460 atbats that year, prospect hounds expected his power to develop over time, as he entered his peak years and leveraged his strong pitch-selection skills. Two years later, Cabrera still lacks pop, and his walk rate has fallen off. The Yankees have to stick with him, given his defense and low price tag, and the possibility that he could still be years away from his prime. But it’s also possible that Cabrera’s offensive upside could be akin to Roberto Kelly’s.Finally, there’s the captain. For all the debates over Jeter’s defense — those who only see the balls Jeter got to arguing that he’s a Gold Glover, those who actually bothered to measure the balls he couldn’t reach arguing that he’s a cipher — his offense always made him well worth the four-hoppers up the middle that he couldn’t handle.Through the entire 1998-2007 decade, shortstop was the only up-the-middle position that produced above-average numbers every season for the Yankees, all thanks to Jeter. But he isn’t the player he once was. His days as a 20-home-run hitter long behind him, Jeter’s walk rate also eroded last season — the second straight year that has happened. He’s walking less this year, with even less power: Jeter’s .103 isolated slugging (SLG minus AVG) is the worst figure of his 14-year career. That means that Jeter’s value is now almost entirely tied up in his batting average, which tends to decline faster than most offensive numbers over time, as hitters lose a half-step of speed and a split-second of reaction time at the plate. Jeter will probably put together a hot streak at some point. But with his 34th birthday coming up, you can see his days as an All-Star-caliber player nearing their end.Go beyond this season and Posada and Jeter only figure to decline as they get older. With Cano and Cabrera likely to produce at times and struggle at others, they’re not the kinds of players you’d expect to carry a franchise either. As the next few years unfold, then, don’t expect the team’s up-the-middle players to lead the way. If the Yankees start a new dynasty, it might well be the team’s pitching that gets them there.Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2.

Yankees Are Getting Soft Up the Middle

Yankees Are Getting Soft Up the Middle

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