Yankees Lineup Should Overpower Tribe’s Arms
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Before the start of the American League Division Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Yankees, much will be made of the Indians’ failure to win even a single game in six meetings with New York this season, but the importance of those games is vastly overstated. There has been little correlation between head-to-head regular season and playoff outcomes (remember the 1988 Mets, who were 10–1 against the Dodgers in the regular season). And these Yankees and Indians bear little resemblance to the teams who played the first three of this season’s six games. The Indians struggled offensively in April, as evidenced by their getting swept by a starting rotation of Chase Wright, Kei Igawa, and Darrell Rasner.
The series the Yankees swept in August represented a more convincing test, but even then, the Yankees did not see the Indians at their best. They didn’t face C.C. Sabathia (they haven’t faced him in years); Travis Hafner was hurt, and the disappointing Josh Barfield did not formally yield second base to Asdrubal Cabrera until the third game. With Cabrera in the lineup, the Indians are stronger both offensively and defensively. Hafner gives the lineup a higher order of magnitude, and Sabathia will contend for the AL Cy Young Award. In many ways, the Yankees have yet to see the Indians this year.
This year, the Indians’ offense was mildly above average, scoring 5.01 runs per game in a league that averaged 4.90. The Yankees, meanwhile, had one of the best offenses in team history, with a fraction under six runs scored per game. Both the team batting and slugging averages were top 10 in club history. As a point of comparison, the fabled 1998 Yankees scored fractionally fewer runs per game in a league with a slightly higher level of offense. The Yankees’ offense is deep. There are some transient soft spots — Hideki Matsui slumped in September and Melky Cabrera hit .206 AVG/.265 OBA/.245 SLG over the last quarter of the season. But the Yankees are more than solid around the rest of the field, including, surprisingly, first base, where Doug Mientkiewicz hit like George Sisler down the stretch. His hot streak can’t possibly last, but given how little Jason Giambi hit after his own return from the disabled list, there is little to dissuade Joe Torre from playing the hot hand and the vastly better glove.
The heart of the Yankees’ offense is the twin MVP-caliber seasons they received from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Rodriguez had the best offensive season by a Yankee not named Derek Jeter (1999 only) or Mickey Mantle in the last 50-plus years. As for Posada, you have to go back to Yogi Berra in the mid-1950s to find a comparable season among Yankees catchers, and the 1990s heyday of Mike Piazza among contemporaries.
No Indians hitter had that kind of season, though catcher Victor Martinez ascended to a very, very good level. Designated hitter Travis Hafner is capable of MVP-level of production, having hit .308/.419/.611 from 2004–06. With injuries and contract negotiations, he fell to only .266/.385/.451 this year. But he did hit a more representative .316/.414/.551 in September. Along with Martinez and Hafner, the Indians’ other game-changing talent is center fielder Grady Sizemore. Stolen from the Expos (and GM Omar Minaya) for Bartolo Colon in 2002, Sizemore combines power, speed, and patience — he’s like Bobby Abreu with a lower batting average and more defensive ability.
The Yankees have a vulnerability to the Indians’ lineup, and that is their lack of a left-handed specialist in the bullpen. After releasing Mike Myers in early August, the Yankees elected to do without this normally overrated part of every modern bullpen. The decision could have a major one: Hafner and Sizemore are left-handed, while Martinez is a switch-hitter who is a better hitter from the left side of the plate. All three are less effective against southpaws. But apart from Andy Pettitte’s start, or a redefinition of Ron Villone’s role, the Yankees won’t be able to take advantage.
The rest of the Indians’ hitters are competent but unspectacular. The left and right field platoons (Kenny Lofton, Jason Michaels and Trot Nixon, and Franklin Guttierez, respectively) weren’t terribly productive. Casey Blake was an upgrade at third from the frustrating prospect Andy Marte, but he’s not a star. Jhonny Peralta hits well for a shortstop and fields well for an inanimate object. First baseman Ryan Garko hits like an average AL first baseman. The existence of the platoons gives manager Eric Wedge pre-selected options on the bench — Indians’ pinch-hitters hit a terrific .276/.360/.418 this year. But because of the aforementioned lack of lefty relievers on the Yankees, Wedge won’t have to make too many substitutions, aside from Pettitte’s Game 2 start.
The Yankees will have a fine bench for a change, addressing a problem that has hurt them in every postseason going back to 2001. Torre will have a lefty power threat (Giambi), a righty power threat (Shelley Duncan, who may start for Matsui or Abreu against Sabathia), and another potential long-ball hitter in Wilson Betemit. This is a huge change from the days of Clay Bellinger and a semi-retired Luis Sojo.
It’s in the pitching department that the Indians top the Yankees, though there is reason for doubt — the Indians padded their stats against the three weakest offenses in the league, fellow Central Division teams Minnesota, Kansas City, and Chicago. Still, Sabathia and number two pitcher Fausto Carmona (a groundball machine), make for a one-two punch that’s more potent than the Yankees’ one-two of Chien-Ming Wang and Pettitte. The key question will be what Sabathia has left after a career-high 241 innings. Even third- and fourth-starters Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd have to be given a better chance to pitch solidly than the fading Yankees Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina. The Cleveland bullpen, too, outclasses New York’s, even taking the addition of Joba Chamberlain into account. Ironically, closer Joe Borowski is the weakest man in the unit and will afford the Yankees a chance to come back late.
Wedge is a tactically neutral manager who can be a bit slow in going to the pen, while Torre is experienced, but sometimes pulls the wrong levers in the postseason. Neither is likely to over-manage. The pick here is Yankees in five: an all-time great hitting attack overcoming good, but not great, pitching.
Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.