Yanks Should Sign Matsui, But Not for Reason You Think

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Word came out of the East yesterday, via the Japanese newspaper Sankei Sports, that the Yankees are on the verge of offering left fielder Hideki Matsui a three-year, $35.5 million contract to remain with the Yankees. Precise financial considerations aside, bringing Matsui back would seem like a no-brainer. Yet Matsui is a samurai with a double-edged sword, and his return is not without potential complications.


Matsui is a good player, though not a great one. In his three years with the Yankees, he has batted .297 AVG/.370 OBA/.484 SLG, above average numbers, though the bulk of the good came after the “adjustment” season of 2003. It’s hard to get a read on precisely what his North American skill set contains, because his performances have been so variable. In 2004, he hit 31 home runs. He dropped eight of those this year, though he picked up 11 doubles. He also shed 25 for a total of 63, the same number he accumulated in his first Yankees season. He’s a power hitter sometimes, and hits for good averages, though he’s streaky. He’s sometimes patient. He’s an average outfielder who shies away from the wall in left field.


Much of Matsui’s perceived value comes in the form of runs batted in. He has driven in over a hundred runs in each of his three seasons, reaching a high of 116 in 2005.Yet Matsui has had more opportunities to drive in runs than any other player in baseball. This year, Matsui came to bat with 519 runners on base, a total that led the major leagues; he drove in 17.9% of them, an above-average number.


In this regard, Matsui ranked 24th among major leaguers with 350 or more plate appearances (Tampa’s Jorge Cantu led the majors with 21%; the famously clutch David Ortiz drove in 19.9% of his baserunners). In 2004, Matsui batted with 489 runners on, third-most in the majors. He drove in 16% of them, ranking 92nd among players with 350 or more plate appearances. In 2003, Matsui came to bat with 507 runners on base, third-most in the majors, most in the American League, and drove in 17.7% of them. He ranked 34th in the majors.


As former Mets manager Bobby Valentine once said, RBI are a team statistic. A player compiles high RBI totals when the rest of the lineup conspires to get on base in front of him. Despite the RBI awarded a player from driving himself in with a home run, the magic 100 RBI mark is not something that a player can reach on his own.


Like any player, Matsui’s facility for driving in 100 runs would disappear if he were to find himself batting in a less privileged spot in a weaker lineup. One borough over from Yankee Stadium, Mets third baseman David Wright batted about as often and drove in nearly the same percentage of his baserunners as did Matsui (17.2%). Because Willie Randolph kept Wright low in the batting order for half the season, and because the top of the Mets order was where Randolph inexplicably batted his hitters least likely to get on base, Wright saw only 434 runners all season long.


In literal terms, Matsui drove in 14 more runs than did Wright, but that was largely because he had 85 more chances. Had Wright come to bat with as many baserunners as did the National League leader, Pat Burrell of the Phillies (514), his RBI total would have been right with Matsui’s.


So the key to Matsui is not how many runs he drives in, but what he actually does. Accurately assessing his skills is especially important now, because with a three-year commitment potentially in the offing, the Yankees need to know exactly what they can expect from Matsui from 2006 through 2008, years in which Matsui will age from 32 to 34. If the team expects to keep winning, it has to be sure that Matsui’s inner Godzilla will still be raging three years from now.


It’s not a safe bet. Matsui hits for good averages, not great averages. Though a Ruthian slugger in Japan, the larger American ballparks – or perhaps the inconsistency of his own approach – have shrunk him down to size. In 2005, he managed just eight home runs away from Yankee Stadium. In 2004, 18 of his 31 home runs were hit in the lefty-friendly ‘House Built for Ruth’.


With walk totals in the 60s – last season’s 88 may reflect his having been pitched around in a Giambi-free lineup – he can be considered only moderately patient, which means that if his batting average slips his on-base percentage is going to decline precipitously as well. And of course, the Yankees don’t need to find out what happens when a less than ideal outfielder slows up – they’ve already had the Bernie Williams Retirement Experience.


In the modern age of advanced conditioning and what we will charitably call “supplements,” players age more slowly than ever before. Still, many players do experience a significant decline in their early 30s. The Angels’ Darin Erstad is eight days older than Matsui. Cincinnati’s Sean Casey is three weeks younger. Colorado’s Todd Helton is not quite ten months older. If Matsui suffers a 10%, across the board decline, there’s not going to be a whole lot left to support his position in the lineup – not walks, not power, not fielding. His career is a balancing act. The Yankees need to get younger, and prudence might suggest letting the player move on.


But here is the other edge of the sword: Matsui is tremendously popular in his home country, and that generates revenues for the Yankees over and above what they might earn if they had an American player, even one of the very best, in Matsui’s place. Matsui’s presence means that Japanese broadcasts of Yankees games are more attractive, that broadcast and Stadium advertising is sold to Japanese companies, who want the signs to be seen as those broadcasts back to the home country. The Yankees in turn become more of a global brand.


That’s why re-signing Matsui is a winner for the Yankees even if he slumps. He’s money in the bank, win or lose.



Mr. Goldman is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel, released this year.


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