When the Miami Dolphins signed rookie Jason Allen to a contract yesterday, it left only one unsigned first-round draft pick in the NFL. That one, former Heisman Trophy-winning USC quarterback Matt Leinart, will most likely get a deal done with the Arizona Cardinals before training camp ends. But there are no guarantees, and his extended holdout serves as a reminder that he probably cost himself a fortune by staying in school for his senior year, and that he doesn’t figure in the Cardinals’ plans for this coming season.

In early 2005, Leinart was expected to be the first overall draft pick of the San Francisco 49ers, but he surprised almost everyone by announcing he would return for his senior season at USC and put the NFL off for a year. The 49ers selected Utah quarterback Alex Smith with the top pick and gave him a contract with $24 million in guaranteed money. Neither Leinart’s agent nor the Cardinals have talked publicly about the specifics of their contract negotiations, but Leinart is probably looking at an offer from the Cardinals worth about half the one he would have gotten last year from the 49ers.

The NFL salary structure ties rookie contracts to the slot where the player was chosen; Leinart was the 10th overall selection in this year’s draft. Ninth overall pick Ernie Sims got about $12 million guaranteed on a five-year deal with the Detroit Lions, and 11th overall pick Jay Cutler got about $11 million guaranteed on a six-year contract with the Denver Broncos. Leinart should expect a deal somewhere in that range.

But Leinart’s agent, Tom Condon, doesn’t hesitate to hold his clients out if he doesn’t like the deal the team is offering. In 2001, rookie running back LaDainian Tomlinson skipped almost all of the San Diego Chargers’ training camp when Condon demanded more money.Condon and New England Patriots tight end Ben Watson eventually parted ways before Watson’s rookie year because Watson thought Condon was being too stubborn in his negotiations with the team.

Although Leinart is an important part of the Cardinals’ long-term plans, the holdout could also last longer than most negotiations because the team doesn’t need him immediately. Usually teams want to get their first-round draft picks into camp quickly for the simple reason that they need the player’s services on the field. But the Cardinals plan to start veteran Kurt Warner at quarterback this year, so they don’t feel rushed to give Leinart a generous contract just to get him into camp right away.

But the injury-prone Warner has started only 26 of 64 games in the last four years, meaning the Cardinals need to have a competent back-up behind him. That back-up should be Leinart, but the contract dispute has already caused him to miss so much practice time that when he does arrive at camp, he’ll be third on the depth chart behind unheralded back-up John Navarre.

Arizona cannot trade Leinart, because the deadline for teams to trade unsigned rookies passed yesterday. So in the unlikely event that the differences between Leinart and the team are irreconcilable, the only option would be for Leinart to sit out the entire season and enter the 2007 draft.Holding out for an entire season would be rare, but not unprecedented. In fact, it happened to the Cardinals once before: In 1987, the franchise selected Colorado State quarterback Kelly Stouffer with the sixth overall pick, but were unable to reach an agreement with him. Stouffer sat out all of that year before joining the Seattle Seahawks in 1988.

Knowing that NFL careers don’t last long, few players would want to give up an entire year. But if Leinart refuses to sign with the Cardinals, the endorsement contract he has already signed with Nike could certainly tide him over for a year. And Leinart might reasonably believe that if he sits out the season and re-enters the draft in 2007, he would be a higher pick than he was this year. A quarterback has been the first overall pick in seven of the last nine NFL drafts, and if he could stay in shape through a year out of football, a team drafting first overall next year would have to consider Leinart, although he would be competing with Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn.

For the Cardinals, failure to get a deal done would be a public-relations nightmare. The team is set to move into a state-of-the-art stadium this season, financed in part by local taxpayers, and the fans will not be pleased if they have bought a new stadium for a team that isn’t doing everything in its power to become a playoff contender. The Cardinals haven’t won a championship since 1947, and their fans’ wrath toward owner Bill Bidwill will increase exponentially if they think he’s low-balling Leinart.

For Leinart, losing a year of his career would probably hurt more than losing the first-round draft pick the Cardinals spent on him would hurt the team. One of the reasons Leinart’s stock slipped from 2005 to 2006 was the perception that he is more interested in being a star — he hangs out with Nick Lachey and has dated Paris Hilton — than playing football. Voluntarily sitting out a year of football wouldn’t do much to shake that image.

That’s why both sides will find a way to get a deal done.If they don’t, Condon could be negotiating a rookie contract for Leinart again this time next year — and he’ll be all out of leverage.

Mr. Smith is a contributing editor for FootballOutsiders.com