One team has made the postseason in three of the past four years. The other has not made it since 1990. Since the AFC East has imploded and the teams in the AFC West are beating up on each other, both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will be playing this January. But the one that can win the division is more likely to be playing in February as well.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-2)

In the first two seasons under head coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals started poorly and ended strong, raising hopes that this long-suffering franchise would finally become a winner. This year, everything has clicked. The offense is perfectly balanced. Quarterback Carson Palmer is an MVP candidate, Chad Johnson is the best route runner in football and the leader of a deep corps of receivers, and Rudi Johnson has been strong on the ground, with Chris Perry blossoming as a third-down back often used in the passing game.

On defense, the Bengals have built a top-notch secondary out of other people’s trash, including cornerbacks Deltha O’Neal (ex-Bronco) and Tory James (ex-Raider). But much of their success has been built on three five-interception games against three NFC North foes, and the pace of more than two picks per game is unlikely to continue in the second half.

Furthermore, the Bengals have the same weakness that has kept Indianapolis from the Super Bowl: they cannot stop the run. Rookie middle linebacker Odell Thurman is small and fast, making him great in coverage but easily blocked on runs. This Achilles’ heel is why Cincinnati was humbled by rival Pittsburgh at home, and why their successful season will not end at the Super Bowl.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-2)

Pittsburgh has to be favored for the division title because it has the easier second-half schedule as well as the tiebreaker advantage from beating Cincinnati four weeks ago. The Bengals need one of two things to happen: either they win in Pittsburgh, splitting the season series, or the Steelers are upset by some weaker team and finish a game behind the Bengals.

But a Pittsburgh loss is not as unlikely as many think. Although they beat Cleveland soundly last week, the Steelers struggled in the two games before that. One reason is clearly the knee injury suffered by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the closing seconds of a win over San Diego. Second-stringer Charlie Batch has been mediocre, and third-stringer Tommy Maddox has been awful.

Since Batch is now injured as well, the Steelers need to either rush Roethlisberger back or hope Maddox doesn’t give away a game to Baltimore. The Pittsburgh ground attack is also not quite as good as advertised; the Steelers control the pace of games with the run and use it to draw safeties closer and free up the passing game, but their 4.25 yards per carry ranks just 15th in the NFL.

The other reason for worry is a change in strategy by opponents. More offenses are using their backs as blockers in max protect schemes, taking care of Pittsburgh’s blitzes, and that’s led to more complete passes and more passing yardage against Pittsburgh’s otherwise dominant defense. If the Steelers don’t fix this problem, an upset by an inferior team is possible, and so is a loss to Cincinnati, even at Heinz Field.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-6)

One of the strange trends in the NFL is that a defensive coordinator who becomes a head coach often ends up with a team that excels on offense, and vice versa. Brian Billick built a defensive force in Baltimore, while Tony Dungy ended up with the Peyton Manning Show in Indianapolis. And Romeo Crenel’s arrival in Cleveland has improved the offense while the defense has stood still.

Many expected running back Reuben Droughns to collapse like so many other ex-Denver backs, but he’s been better than expected. So have veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer and receiver Antonio Bryant.

The goal was not to make the playoffs in the first year; it was to establish a new atmosphere around the team. In this, Crenel has succeeded. At some point this season, third-round pick Charlie Frye will replace Dilfer under center and first-round pick Braylon Edwards will become a more important receiver in the offense. In the off-season, Crenel will continue to mold his defense with new additions. And sometime in 2006 or 2007, the Browns will once again be dangerous.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-7)

This was the plan in Baltimore: A new scheme based on the classic 46 defense of the 1985 Chicago Bears would revitalize linebacker Ray Lewis and give the team’s best defender, safety Ed Reed, even more playmaking opportunities. On offense, running back Jamal Lewis would return to his 2,000-yard form of two years ago, while the addition of free agent receiver Derrick Mason would help Kyle Boller emerge as a legitimate NFL quarterback.

But the offense is no better for having Mason, and both Boller and backup Anthony Wright have been lousy. Even worse, Lewis is clearly done, yet the Ravens insist on starting him over his backup, Chester Taylor, even though Taylor averages 2 yards more per carry and has zero fumbles to Lewis’s three. The offensive line is aging and losing effectiveness. The defense adds up to less than the sum of its parts, a collection of egos who all want contract extensions.

Billick will likely be fired after the season, Boller will be replaced as quarterback, and Lewis and a number of the defensive players will be allowed to go elsewhere. The Ravens will finally close the door on the long decline from their 2000 Super Bowl title and begin their next phase.

Projected order of finish: Pittsburgh 12-4, Cincinnati 11-5 (wild card), Cleveland 5-11, Baltimore 4-12.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com, which will report on the AFC East and AFC West in tomorrow’s New York Sun.